Volcanic Winter

There’s a bit of an ongoing seismic crisis at Santorini / Kolumbo volcanoes in Greece (Kolumbo is a neighboring system of Santorini, only a few miles northeast - and is also capable of powerful eruptions and has done so in historic times). The resurgent dome of Nea Kameini in the middle of Santorini’s caldera has effusively erupted numerous times in recent history, but this doesn’t appear to be that as the locus of quakes is between the two systems. This, IMHO, is very unusual. And appropriately, Santorinians are quite nervous at the moment. It’s unlikely any major eruption is about to begin just because, as always, large eruptions at any given system are rare. But something is going on and this warrants considerable caution. I’m seeing daily large magnitude quakes … mag 4-5. I have actually been to Santorini in the late 2000’s, I dated a young Greek woman when I was just starting college and I traveled with her there. Santorini is unbelievably beautiful, but also the size and magnitude of the caldera is incredibly apparent - the whole area is born of extremely powerful volcanism. Edit: 9000 evacuate Santorini https://watchers.news/2025/02/04/over-9-000-people-evacuate-santorini-as-seismic-crisis-worsens-uk-issues-travel-advisory-greece/ If the seismic activity continues to escalate and doesn’t begin to peter out relatively soon, the chances of an eruption increase. However they’re also talking about this as a potential tectonic event or prelude to a large earthquake. Part of why is because the locus of quakes is between the two magma centers of both volcanoes which is part of why this whole thing is odd in the first place. No idea what’s going to happen, I wouldn’t have thought this type of seismic crisis as foreshocks to a large earthquake (this seems volcanic for sure, IMHO) - but I overall agree in getting people out of the area. Something is definitely going down right now.

Was just reminiscing about 1/29/22 as we approach the end of the month, that was such an epic and fun storm for both myself and the LI crew. The only thing that knocks it down a peg for me is the fact that the storm needed to shift west like 50-75 miles and most of the metro would’ve been absolutely blasted, and we would all be fondly reminiscing about that absolute beast of a storm. The city did fine, but there’s a big difference once you start to go over a foot in terms of memorability, of course. That was so close to a much needed forum wide KU, it hurts in hindsight given our current position. And that was such a cold storm, 22F at time of peak snowfall down here, (I think) we could’ve easily handled a much closer track without tainting the coast / LI. In a way, that was the one that got away of recent memory, at least IMHO in terms of huge upside potential.

0z is truly one of the most bizarre GFS runs I’ve ever personally watched. You have the thinnest overrunning of all time followed immediately by a drunk clipper, oh then there’s the omega level … Dakota cutter bringing rain to Ellesmere Island. That of course finishes with a perfect coastal nuke for everyone, from the ashes of the cutter that’s now probably plowing into Novaya Zemlya.

Ugh - I’m sorry that’s absolutely horrid. I did read that can happen, no way of knowing what will happen in my case so I’ll just have to wait and see. Just underscores what an unpleasant virus this is.

Starting to feel better, but holy hell - not fun. I have a coxsackie viral infection, like Hand Foot and Mouth disease most common in young children. That first night I went from completely fine to pushing a 104 fever in something like six hours, but the fever itself broke by the 36 hour mark. I’m used to COVID lately where I’ve had low to moderate grade fevers for as long as ten days, so that was maybe the only good aspect of this. Then a terrible sore throat kicked in, total razor blades, tough to swallow and combined with near zero appetite. Just hellacious thirst for water (and tons of electrolyte powder , Ultima - really good stuff and a lifesaver when your body is depleted ). This also lessened in about a day, and I thought I was somehow coming out the other side already. My only nagging thought was that the initial fever was stupid high, which logically suggests your body was fighting something fairly significant. Sure enough within a few hours I began breaking out with super painful blisters all over my hands and feet that initially hurt so much it was tough to stand or do anything. Eventually it kinda morphed into a painful burning itching feeling. Highly unpleasant. Do not recommend. Stay safe out there guys. It’s really wild how much stuff is circulating this year, and unfortunately there’s an argument to be made that having COVID in December at the back end of my trip (unfortunately) left my immune system weakened enough to pick this odd virus up. It’s not super typical in adults although I’ve read a lot the past two days that the idea adults don’t really or rarely catch this is false. That said, I need a volcano or snowstorm to track - bad . Posting at 3:30am because it’s still extremely difficult to sleep due to the discomfort of this rash.

Just hit 2, wow!

3 here atm, wasn’t quite expecting the lowest temps tonight!

Thank you so much, Don! Much appreciated.

Ugh that’s horrible, and honestly scary. A fever above 103.5 starts to freak me out, and I rarely get them that high. Glad you were okay though !

I went out to Seaside today to check on my parent’s house, who are away for a while. Driving over the bridge I noticed the bay was about 60-70% frozen! Crazy! Not something I see every year, that’s for sure.

Thanks man, I’m not well familiar with this RSV but I’ve definitely been hearing about it popping up. I should look into it. I just don’t like how quick this went from 0-60, but viruses do that sometimes and thinking back to our trip - COVID did that too. We were just settling down to go bed in a hotel way out by an awesome winter hiking spot and I started feeling progressively worse and worse, very quickly. Next morning - boom 102 fever. Took a few days for the other symptoms to get going which thankfully weren’t too bad, but the fever itself was horrendous.

Had COVID during the second half of our Iceland trip in December, it totally sucked but I made the most out of it for our outdoor activities. Hiking with a fever is not recommended.. . Thought that was probably it for the season for me, and last night a fever hit me like a ton of bricks from out of nowhere. By 5am I was up to 103F. Absolute ass.

I would argue the brine is excessive and we have a tendency to over applicate. I had brine from last winter get all up inside my engine unknown to me and destroy it, corroded oil lines and was shooting oil all over my driveway when it finally snapped. I don’t have the answer, but I think what they’re currently doing is a touch overzealous.

Got down to 5F overnight, low max on the winter so far and definitely the coldest temp I’ve read on my Tempest since installing it a few years ago.

That’s good for them, I don’t think the cape got really anything in that last event. I kept checking their thermals and they were pretty torched even way later on.

Are you on LI? Still nothing here at all, but if this is a dusting for the extreme coast + LI -> SEMA only I’m probably just a bit too far inland. Radar looks well offshore and like it’s virga anyway, would’ve been cool to see a flake or two but wasn’t expecting anything.

Nothing here yet, but I’m on the western border with Manchester about as far away from the coast as you can be in Toms River.

Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa often are frosted on top, and probably had some form of glacier during the last glacial maxima (crazy at Hawaii’s latitude). It’s a bit rarer at Haleakala and Hualalai.

Chance at a BN winter (DJF) on the table? Now that would be interesting.

Of course it is! Just not sure what that has to do with our weather / statistics, which is what Bluewave has been posting about. And the core of the cold dumping west of us absolutely has been a recurring theme. But yes, this has been quite a cold January in comparison to what we’ve had for years now! I was saying yesterday it really reminds me of the 2013-2015 winters.

He’s just talking in terms of statistics and verification. I’ve hit 8F or colder at least once each of the past few winters (and I think twice more already this winter), so in terms of comparison this isn’t anything “special” here. Of course it’s “cold out” and below average this January, I’m running 28.9F on the month which is pretty wild! I do agree it’s important to keep perspective on this stuff, though. But I can understand how people would take @bluewave to be downplaying; he’s just keeping it statistically ‘real’ - an important counter to media hyperbole, always. And we really have had several crazy warm winters back to back, which makes this seem even colder by direct comparison.

Seems I’ve bottomed out at 8F this morning.

Yeah, I live on the extreme northern edge. I never came to learn if the microclimate gets factored into modeling and forecasted lows here or not. I just notice sometimes we soundly beat projected lows, and sometimes are more in line with NNJ overnight temps. Can’t models predict radiative cooling? Some nights I expect it, it doesn’t happen. Other nights we’re off to the races. Already below what I was forecasted to be at for a low tonight since they adjusted the forecast up a bit from the extremes it was at several days ago. Snowcover helps too of course. It’s frigid out right now. 8F dew at 2.

10F already here.