Volcanic Winter

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens.

Well, that was fun. I think we all at least got a nice covering, with some of the north and west crew really cashing in? Ended up with 1.75-2 inches here on top of a thin layer of slush that is sure to turn into an actual glacier Sure beats bare ass ground going into this week. That storm had to be an enormously difficult forecast to make, for example my location which many models showed as generally all snow except Canadian guidance - there just wasn’t the precipitation to cool the column earlier on, it was actually extremely dry here until like 5pm. We had a little rain earlier in the day, but definitely paltry in terms of QPF. Then a period of very light sleet / graupel before we finally got into a main heavy band and the column instantly cooled to below freezing and put snow on the ground. Tough forecast. I think the city had similar issues, or was it just more plain temp problems there early on? The precipitation shield also really just seemed spotty and a bit shredded, certainly with some very heavy bands embedded though. Doesn’t seem like any model actually got the storm fully correct.

Finished up just under two at my house. About 1.75. But really nice powder on top of a layer of literal ice (already), shoveling / cleaning cars was interesting. If the early precip were snow I probably would’ve had only about 2.5” or so, there was a definite death of moisture at around 40n with this system. Regardless, I’m more than happy with the wintry vibes. I’m at about 4.25 inches on the season - Toms River / Manchester border. Be safe guys. Seeing the consistency of that icy slush under the powder I really think tomorrow AM is going to be messy in spots, so locales on a line from me to the city that started with rain / mix.

I’m nearing 2 inches, beautiful powder. I’ll take it.

The band that’s just exiting me down in Toms River was beautiful… very high rate and heavy snow. That should plaster you guys good.

The beginning of that band dropped me 2 degrees and ended the graupel / mix and absolutely started ripping snow here. That has to help the city / LI. The rates are high.

This current band could probably get me to 1-2 inches, and I’ll take it. Most of CNJ looks to be in the heavy stuff for a bit. And this should move NE and hopefully clobber LI. Temps really dropped in this band with the significant rate increase.

Ripping and sticking here now in western Toms River. Just needed the rates to pick up, which they did. Very anemic with precip to this point so far, but we’re in the goods now. 32/31

33/32 here with temps steadily falling. Light snow increasing in rate as we work into a better band - we’ll see what happens. Actually didn’t even have much rain here, just a little bit a few hours ago and it turned into a mix / graupel fairly quickly. I’ll be satisfied with whatever falls here as at least we know it’s not going anywhere any time soon, and will look quite a bit nicer than bare ass ground for the upcoming cold.

It’s interesting they don’t even have WWA in SE MA up to Boston. That seems risky with some models still mostly hanging on to all snow solutions, no? Especially with the RGEM shifting, that seems like a huge risk to the immediate Boston metro let alone Monmouth / Ocean here. Can’t recall such stubborn divergence this late in the game, maybe 1/29/22 which was also very difficult to forecast with models split down the middles on the low position and banding pretty much right up to nowcasting. edit: Looks like they did finally add a WSWatch to the immediate Boston metro, which makes sense to me. Seems official forecasting for this event is playing highly conservative. Not suggesting it’s the wrong approach, just interesting to me.

So far Jan is averaging 29.7F IMBY. Pretty wild that it’ll drop further after next week, only a brief dip into the 40’s - no signs of hitting 50 soon either which has been a lock every January lately.

Nice semi-coating here, at least seeing some flakes flying. And the world’s smallest pile of snow is… on life support but still hanging on.

Been meaning to watch that one, we just finished up For All Mankind which was some of the best television sci/fi since The Expanse. I know about all the Severance hype (also Silo!), really meaning to watch it soon. Apple TV is killing it with genre shows.

Thanks. Still hanging on here.