Volcanic Winter
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I’ll take it
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Cool halo around the moon tonight.
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She’ll do. My yard looks like if I flicked a tree or plant it would crumble to ash and blow away in the wind. I’m near the cutoff to the zone of the worst drought stage in the area. We only got like .15 “ of rain the other day, basically nothing against the kind of deficit we’re running.
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I’d really love to ditch the trough in the west look every time we happen to have a trough here, add that to the southeast ridge as something that’s given me serious weather trauma the past couple years. Really hoping to have a wintry Iceland trip in December, but they’ve been having some incredible warmth trapped under a major ridge. Some of the cams in the north are completely devoid of snow; when we toured the north in Nov 2022 it was like being in arctic tundra (everything I’ve ever wanted lol).
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32 here
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Crazy, I would’ve figured your area would’ve hit freezing already too. I’ve been down to 29-31 a few nights already. Pine Barrens gonna radiate I guess.
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69.6. Just a tad above average.
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This is pretty insane. 64f at 12am.
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With respect to the AMOC, we just don’t know enough yet regarding the effects of a switch to the slower, more southerly configuration in the modern interstadial climate. We know what happened during the Younger Dryas in terms of climate shifts, but things are different today. It’s very much a “pick your source” thing right now. There are good papers showing a 1-2C drop along the US East Coast and as much as 5-6C drop up in Scandinavia, and there are papers that confine the cooling to Scandinavia and broil the East Coast. There are new papers from 2023/24 showing a “restructured” northern branch of the AMOC (“shutdown”) is possible as early as a few years to a couple decades, with increasing likelihood from then on. We don’t know enough yet, but we’re learning fast. Would be foolhardy to assume A) it won’t happen anytime soon and B - precisely what the effects will or will not be. Models often significantly under or overestimate various factors as we see on a weekly basis here with just basic forecasting.
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Already at 30 this evening. Been dropping pretty fast tonight.
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Maybe when the PDO and AMO flip? Thinking our best chances may be the back end of this decade, especially if the PDO begins to flip in the next two years or so as I’ve seen some suggestion of. No way of knowing yet though, of course. I think we need to see that intense marine heatwave off Japan calm down first. In hindsight I’m trying to stay positive that I’ve been relatively lucky so far this decade given how abysmal things have been. Eked out more snow than Boston last year, had an epic storm in 2022 here, and 2021 was pretty great even if not the best down at my house.
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Crazy. Do you think there will be a flip in December before January / Feb likely goes very warm again?
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In the correct season, sure. I enjoy fall for the cool, beautiful time of year that it’s supposed to be. We shouldn’t be this warm - sustained - heading into Nov. A day or two, or three, - I’ll give you. It’s a given anyway these days
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84 here.
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Still bone dry down here. Enjoy the raindrops! What a crazy fall. Low for the month: 29.3 High: 83.5 Rain: Zero.zerozero Wild!
