Volcanic Winter
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I know this is silly, but I’m absolutely loving this. I had resigned myself for a continuation of what we had in November, and with our tendency to only have a couple day brief cooldown followed by more warmth - this is pretty incredible. Good exposure to the temps we’ll be having in Iceland this time of year in about ten days, especially when we go towards the coastal interior. Right now tracking spots we’ll be staying in going down to 5 degrees - won’t be quite that cold I don’t think when we get there but it’s possible! To kick off December and Christmas season with some real winter weather is just amazing to me and feels like a precious commodity anymore with the regime we’ve been under.
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I just did a double take checking my temps. On the western edge of Toms River, my nighttime lows are always cold in my location and on good radiative cooling nights I’m not far off some spots in north Jersey. But I’m seeing daytime highs in the 30’s to start December, potentially? Wild.
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God I love -EPO.
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I’ll take it
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Cool halo around the moon tonight.
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She’ll do. My yard looks like if I flicked a tree or plant it would crumble to ash and blow away in the wind. I’m near the cutoff to the zone of the worst drought stage in the area. We only got like .15 “ of rain the other day, basically nothing against the kind of deficit we’re running.
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I’d really love to ditch the trough in the west look every time we happen to have a trough here, add that to the southeast ridge as something that’s given me serious weather trauma the past couple years. Really hoping to have a wintry Iceland trip in December, but they’ve been having some incredible warmth trapped under a major ridge. Some of the cams in the north are completely devoid of snow; when we toured the north in Nov 2022 it was like being in arctic tundra (everything I’ve ever wanted lol).
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32 here
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Crazy, I would’ve figured your area would’ve hit freezing already too. I’ve been down to 29-31 a few nights already. Pine Barrens gonna radiate I guess.
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69.6. Just a tad above average.
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This is pretty insane. 64f at 12am.
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With respect to the AMOC, we just don’t know enough yet regarding the effects of a switch to the slower, more southerly configuration in the modern interstadial climate. We know what happened during the Younger Dryas in terms of climate shifts, but things are different today. It’s very much a “pick your source” thing right now. There are good papers showing a 1-2C drop along the US East Coast and as much as 5-6C drop up in Scandinavia, and there are papers that confine the cooling to Scandinavia and broil the East Coast. There are new papers from 2023/24 showing a “restructured” northern branch of the AMOC (“shutdown”) is possible as early as a few years to a couple decades, with increasing likelihood from then on. We don’t know enough yet, but we’re learning fast. Would be foolhardy to assume A) it won’t happen anytime soon and B - precisely what the effects will or will not be. Models often significantly under or overestimate various factors as we see on a weekly basis here with just basic forecasting.
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Already at 30 this evening. Been dropping pretty fast tonight.
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Maybe when the PDO and AMO flip? Thinking our best chances may be the back end of this decade, especially if the PDO begins to flip in the next two years or so as I’ve seen some suggestion of. No way of knowing yet though, of course. I think we need to see that intense marine heatwave off Japan calm down first. In hindsight I’m trying to stay positive that I’ve been relatively lucky so far this decade given how abysmal things have been. Eked out more snow than Boston last year, had an epic storm in 2022 here, and 2021 was pretty great even if not the best down at my house.
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Crazy. Do you think there will be a flip in December before January / Feb likely goes very warm again?
