WxSynopsisDavid

Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near.

He’s a tad late to the party, Idalia is currently strengthening into a Category 3 as I type this. Considering it’s got 12hrs left, I assume “likely” is a typo. He meant to say Idalia will intensify into a Category 3.

Inner core structure is extremely healthy. Column is vertically stacked as evident with the noticeable outflow expanding across all 4 quads. Ventilation looks uninhibited, Idalia is about to tank rapidly. Could see a very steep, very sudden drop in pressure soon.

I been told they are using drones to also recon Idalia. That data set is not available to the public. It’s possible they got the 100mph reading using other methods instead of Recon Hunters.

Good lord that’s a tight, compact eye. If that thing stays looking like a pinhole, I would hate to be the recon hunters having to fly into that sucker later today.

Faster forward speed also limits the likelihood of eyewall replacement cycles being induced. This means the chances are increasing that Idalia rolls in at peak intensity on landfall.

Idalia is…FINALLY…a Category 1 hurricane

Finally appears that the centers are aligned and stacked. Vertical column significantly healthier and less tilted. Idalia now into the southern Gulf…and rapidly getting symmetrical. Idalia has that look now, as soon as the eye clears this thing bombs. Hopefully it’s when we have recon inside the storm.

It’s plausible but this hinges on Idalia taking full advantage of the pristine environment ahead. This would indicate lack of shear upon landfall and minimal hindrance from the trough. Lastly, it would suggest Idalia does not have any eyewall replacement cycles before landfall which is plausible if forward speed increases.

But how much storm surge in my back yard will there be?

Indeed, finally seeing a consistent burst of deep convection and it appears that deep convection is wrapping the core now. Marketable improvements upshear, I suspect what is happening now is that column is trying to get vertical which should happen very soon, once it clears Cuba. IMO...the environment ahead is the best environment an Atlantic tropical system has had since Michael. All systems are go, once it clears Cuba, for RI. Some indication I seen in previous runs of the COAMPS that suggests a potential period of explosive intensification once it gets over the loop current tomorrow afternoon.

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

Correction....Category 6.5 to the 3rd power

Your comment earlier about Idalia looking like trash garbage inspired greatness.

Done, just created it.

Banter for Idalia

As I mentioned earlier, until we get a solid core and eye with Idalia models will continue to fluctuate with track and intensity.

Honestly, until Idalia develops a solid core (which will take several more hours), model track and intensity will continue to fluctuate.

Negative. The cloud tops are casting a shadow that is given the appearance of an eye. No eye is developing yet, according to recon.

Shear has actually rapidly decreased the last 3 hours. Shear values north of Idalia went from 40kts to 25kts now. Dry air has abated the core and there’s little dry air to the north. This is a similar environment that Michael had in all honesty. One could argue a better environment ahead than what Michael had.

No one has forgotten but there are still uncertainties on track and intensity. Unfortunately we won’t really know for sure what those impacts will be until Tuesday.

I’ll take that bet and say 12hrs tops. So far what Idalia was able to pull off with 30kts of shear was impressive. Also….Idalia is now beginning to interact with a noticeable warm eddy so I think because of this the process happens much sooner.

Once that vertical column stacks, it’s game on. We are close now to that happening.

Night man, thanks for the analysis and breakdown of recon data.