WxSynopsisDavid

Thats a pretty ridiculous deform band setting up shop over central/eastern VA at hour 102. RVA is getting crushed

Honestly, if the low could be a little deeper and undergo bombogenesis that would be really nice and everyone in the subforum would cash in and be able to eat lol

This block to our north, per the UK and EURO, and even the crappy GFS looks a hell of a lot better than what we had in place with this recent storm. Will have to say I am concerned with your reasoning for being cautious as that could lead to a significant icing event. This has even been shown on previous runs of the globals in regards to this next storm. Those runs were putting down copious amounts of Ice across the eastern Carolinas

I absolutely agree with your analysis. Though I will say this, we have a much colder airmass in place now thanks to this current system that just exited our region to the north. Also, from what I'm seeing on the models we will have a decent blocking pattern in place limiting this storms ability to coming inland. This recent storm had a northern stream shortwave energy over the Great Lakes influencing it and pulling it inland. So far we don't have that with this storm. In all seriousness, the odds look good that we get a Miller A or at the very least something very similar to it

Looks like some areas could get 12:1 or 15:1 ratios. So in saying that, these maps could be slightly underdone

#BOMB

I didn’t see the rain/snow/sleet line hugging the coast on the model data. Coastal areas were suppose to be rain. Interesting that northeast NC and southeast VA might pick up minor accumulations now. Point is, this thing is already farther south and east of model guidance.

Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

Hugging the EURO does not make anyone a great met. He's far from being a "great" met. We are talking about a guy who was fired from the NWS, in addition to a guy that bashes not only the NWS but every local/regional met. He does this in the middle of storms as a way to divert traffic from his site when he knows his forecast is going to bust. Lets not forget the nasty harassment of former CBS 6 met Nikki Dee-Ray. That was absolutely disgusting and unacceptable.

And that’s a legendary “AmericanWX Hall of Fame” post right there.

Dude….there’s little separation between the zones was the point I was making. I also agree with your point concerning the ice

Oh the cluster f***? Yeah, I got a migraine looking at it

Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not

That’s a large swath of the eastern US facing a potential major icestorm. Don’t recall many ice storms impacting such a large area. Curious if these ice totals continue to go higher with later model guidance today. Some areas are going to get dumped on with heavy snow followed by a sleet bomb and finally freezing rain. It’s going to suck to have to shovel or plow this crap.

I’ve seen kindergarten scribble scrabble that looked better

I see DT returned safely from Wal-Mart with a “Fischer Price My First Forecast Kit” and a box of crayons. I think the box of crayons were free with a rebate though

And the ICON is 3 right? You know, them Germans can make awesome stuff but they can’t make a sleet or ice map on their weather model

My aunt and uncle live in Lugoff, SC outside of Columbia. I’m growing concerned for them

RGEM…….about the same as the NAM but shift the ice west. DC escapes the ice