WxSynopsisDavid

I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC.

I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current

Also Ian won’t be over water long if it comes in south of Tampa vs a track to the north. If Cuba induces an EWRC soon Ian will likely recover once it emerges and should be able to landfall intensifying. Very little time to undergo another one once it gets into the Gulf. Of course everything I said changes if it goes north of Tampa.

The tracks on the models south of Tampa feature little to no dry air and almost no shear. What you are implying is if Ian tracks north of Tampa. A landfall south of Tampa is the path of least resistance. Point is, if Ian rolls in at peak intensity it won’t be Tampa or points north. Too much dry air/shear situated up there

That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall.

Hurricane Models have peak intensity at landfall

Ian is about to cross Cuba with an open eye and tight CDO. Let’s see what them mountains do to it shortly. If Ian maintains structure and intensity crossing Cuba this is going to be a huge day that we might remember for a long time.

And it also depends on internal processes which can never be forecasted

It’s possible and very likely Ian can obtain Cat 5 as peak intensity. The question is whether Ian can hold it on landfall. The track that would support this would be landfall points south of Tampa as it’s the path of least resistance. Tampa and points north it will encounter shear/dry air so it’s highly unlikely.

Very impressive intensification process right on landfall caused by friction. Very similar to Charley in some degree in how quick it happened. I believe they even had the data to support Cat 4 but will review it after the season when composing the TCR. This forecast by NOAA NHC has been stellar and they smacked the ball out the park with this one. I agree so far with how they been upgrading Ian and the data they chose for further review. The intensity forecast has been solid

00z HMON landfalls Ian as a Cat 4 near Sarasota

Looking at the 00z HWRF it has Ian as a powerful Cat 4 west of Tampa, bombs to 945mb. Landfalls on Waccasassa Bay State Preserve as 963mb Cat 3. Windfield even expands again right on landfall.

Yeah I had a moment man, its been a long shift at work. My apologies lol

Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z

Point is...a major cane rolling into areas south of Tampa is devastating, a major cane stalling and creeping up the coast weakening is devastating, and landfall on Tampa is devastating. Maybe to be "politically correct" they arent equally devastating but none of those scenarios are better than the other...which was my point. Each scenario brings with it its own catastrophic situation. Whether that be prolonged wind, severe storm surge, catastrophic inland freshwater flooding, etc.

Thank you for that. Seeing the trends we are seeing with Ian right into that population center is troubling. I have family in Florida that might be impacted by this storm so I hope they sincerely heed the warnings

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet.

Yeah its way more populous than it was in 2004, which again draws concern that either scenario we are looking at is going to be devastating.

Yeah not liking the model trends right now. We went from a weaker hurricane on landfall near the Big Bend now to a potential high-end cane rolling into Tampa or points south. Not a good trend to see being a few days out from landfall

Yeah and it's concerning, definitely not good. The farther south this thing landfalls the greater likelihood Ian can roll in at peak intensity. Have to think less shear, less dry air when you get south of Tampa. Plus, little real estate between Cuba and SW FL so its the path of least resistance. Little time to undergo EWRC vs a track parallel to the coast. This really opens the door to a Cat 4 landfall given Ian tightens up when it goes over Cuba and bombs when it emerges in the Gulf. Something we never want to see closing in to game time...but...it's good to see people down there taking early precautions and rushing their preparations to completion.

And I sincerely appreciate it, thank you

Thank you for taking the time to "teach" and explain yourself, I wasn't trying to come off aggressive and if I was I apologize. I'm at work tonight pulling a 12hr shift stuck in the office balancing work and occasionally trying to keep up in here following Ian.

Right and I agree, just haven't seen enough conclusive data from recon to say for sure its dry air. Its definitely shear as its moving into 25-30kts of shear

Again, concerning topography and the mountains i agree and its common sense. That's not what I was disputing with your claim, the dry air is what I dispute. Need to see more conclusive data from the Recon Hunters before going off that assumption

yes its having issues, but i credit this more to the topography and the mountains of Cuba vs dry air