WxSynopsisDavid

Latest HRRR run suggests that this might be a nocturnal outbreak. Best parameters look to be after 7pm, right about when the LLJ gets cranking.

One noticeable thing to point out, 2 waves of isolated ahead of the QLCS. Previous runs only had 1 wave but there’s a 2nd wave at the end of the 10z run. Another thing to mention is the separation between the discrete supercells is improving.

Northeast Louisiana

From 6z to 9z, there are rather large significant improvements in the low level thermos on the HRRR. Not a great sign, as it further indicates a loaded gun environment is evolving. I would venture to say if trends continue we see a High Risk issuance for LA and MS.

Exactly, I didn’t mean to take away from that perspective. That was one of the issues during the 2011 Super Outbreak that was noted by the survey teams and engineers. The construction throughout MS, AL, GA was weak and poorly constructed. Sad when you think about it. But of course, what isn’t demolished or completely destroyed will have to be bulldozed. The only point I noted was that I thought the terminology “catastrophic” was too much. It seems like every outbreak that happens now the media and enthusiasts through that terminology around frequently. Should be reserved terminology, only used for the Joplin/Moore/Birmingham type tornado events.

I remember back during the 2020 Easter Outbreak they posted one of these for the Bassfield, MS violent tornado. It gave me goosebumps/chills to read it. “Confirmed large, deadly violent tornado. Likely ongoing EF5 in progress” For me that was the first time seeing a Mesoscale Discussion used in that manor for a violent tornado. They actually noted in the text for the MD that the gate-to-gate signature on radar was maxing out with velocities on the higher-end spectrum well exceeding 200mph.

Definitely a very bad situation for Selma. I wouldn’t use “catastrophic” to describe that damage though. Appears to be EF2/EF3 as there’s a lack of completely destroyed and slabbed buildings. A lot of interior/exterior walls still standing. For that reason I highly doubt it gets higher than a weak EF3 when survey teams assess the damage. Very fortunate this thing didn’t hit in April with a more amplified jet and rich gulf moisture.

That's hilarious

Exactly. I never use the NAM for the clown maps but rather to look for small changes and track deviations like what I indicated above. During past winter storms the NAM had a habit of sniffing out such things that the globals eventually picked up on in later runs. The NAM model is a tool, like the other models, and has its use. However, most people fail to realize that and only strictly use the NAM to glamour over the clown maps without understanding that the NAM has bias's like the other models.

Comparing the 18z and 00z NAM runs for 12z Wednesday

Interesting to note, so far the 00z NAM has the center of low pressure farther to the east of 18z runs through hour 57. Much weaker system and a lack of moisture overall, appears to be suppressed as the precip field struggles to get north of the SC/NC line where as 18z the precip field was up to the VA/NC line. Just a few significant trends I'm noticing with tonights 00z NAM.

The answer I believe is more complex and includes multiple different aspects. I do believe, so far this season, SST's are playing more of a part in the issues up north with trying to get an established block.

How was the jebwalk after that particular storm...compared to past storms? Was it a top-10, top-5, top-3, or #1 Jebwalk event?

There are other issues like the warm ocean temps, that I fell are playing a part in this. Also like CAPE just said, this being a Nina year presents its own set of issues as well.

Or we can try and figure out where those "DT-Forecasted" snowstorms went. Lets look at his social media post on Nov 30th and play the game of "decipher the code" or "solve the equation". Maybe its a typo...he meant "Major East Coast Rainstorms"

It wont, it will just help to "ease" the nerves of those on the cliff ready to jump until the 00z suite starts rolling.

Oh it’s the season…..that time of year when DT breaks out the colored pencils. Also, one of his better jumbled up “art pieces” he has posted. He actually colored inside the lines this time. But we all know his snow maps are coming shortly and we will be struggling to decipher/crack the code and/or solve the equation to figure out what zone we are in.

Just seen this on Twitter, apparent picture of the Bassfield tornado as it was tracking through. Picture seems to be about the time the tornado peaked

The combination of high ocean heat content, Gulf Stream, and notable warm eddies does point towards Category 3 being the ceiling and a real possibility now.

The massive violent wedge earlier when it was passing by Clarksville, TX

The tornado earlier near Sulphur Springs, TX

Yup there were several runs showing that

Maybe someone can help validate this claim but I seen various sources say "at least 10,000 missing". That number, along with the death toll, still does not factor in Cuba from my understanding. Also, the Ian wikipedia page has been updated and shows "10,000 missing". Just curious if the number being reported is true.

At least 1 death in NC was attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning because someone started up their generator inside their house and went to sleep shortly after.