WxSynopsisDavid

Dr Knabb been explaining on TWC today that surge effects will actually peak well after landfall. Forecast is for surge to peak around high-tide as the winds shift back around from the west.

WFLA News Channel 8 is live streaming on Facebook. The on-air Mets disagree and said Milton is coming right into the mouth of the Bay. Just told people Tampa will be taking a direct hit.

It’s getting close, yes. Probably about 1-2hrs away from that happening.

Not quite, the symmetry is not there. Milton is lopsided and ragged. Not to mention the eye is still not quite organized and open yet.

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Yet again, Milton is rebounding very healthy from an ERC. Continues to remain resilient to shear and dry air. Absolutely not what you want to see heading into landfall. Milton was expected to have its bottom ripped out from this ERC and roll in as a weak Cat 3. Milton is simply holding its intensity and that strong inner core. Really poses a serious threat to over-performing in terms of landfall intensity. That’s if Milton continues to remain resilient, Milton will most certainly have one final intensification process as it nears land. Would be both environmental and frictional induced. Overall, I’m not liking this trend we are seeing and starting to grow concerned of the aspect of greater intensity on landfall. Hopefully, post ERC, Milton loses the resiliency.

This would make Milton the first ATL Basin hurricane to go Sub-910 three times.

907mb

Yeah, Milton’s core is still very small and compact. Finding Milton’s peak wind is no easy task. They can easily miss it.

Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185.

This is a remarkable Post-ERC recovery. Milton should begin undergoing intense, rapid pressure falls once again within the next few hours.

Milton is beginning another Rapid Intensification process. Should shear continue to relax, this will be Milton’s last chance at making a run at peak intensity. Milton starting to move over a warm eddie. Should be over this warm eddie for the next several hours. Later today into the evening and overnight, Milton will be over the Gulf Loop Current.

That’s also the NW Eyewall where the weaker winds tend to be. Will be interesting to see what the NE Eyewall yields.

Dry air is not impacting the storm currently. The degrading appearance and egg shape Milton is taking on is a result of the N/NW shear beating down on the storm. Shear should relax later today in the afternoon.

Really comes down to the landfall point. Farther north it landfalls, the greater impacts it will sustain from shear and dry air. Farther south it landfalls, less impacts from shear and dry air. You do NOT want a landfall between Fort Myers and Naples. This would almost guarantee high-end Cat 4 or perhaps Cat 5 on landfall. Another thing to consider is how the hurricane models are starting to show a last minute rapid intensification on landfall. This would be both environmental and frictional induced but the critical angle of approach would also enhance the last minute RI process.

Ever since Milton began this ERC, the overall symmetry of Milton is drastically improving. Though it’s not annular, it’s definitely starting to gain similar characteristics.

Exactly what I’m thinking here. This ERC should be smooth and completes n time for Milton hitting the loop current. Milton’s actual peak likely to be achieved at that point.

Yes it can, pressure can easily drop into the 880’s now. Don’t think 190-200mph winds is out of the question because how healthy the CDO is and the fact the eye is only 2 to 4nm wide points to pressure continuing to tank. Until we see a double wind maxima which is the beginning of an ERC, Milton will continue to intensify.

The friction will tighten the core/eye up and help Milton to continue to intensify

Milton activating “Beast Mode”, we are likely very close to witnessing Milton’s true peak intensity being achieved.

Milton is the 6th

Milton is evolving into a buzzsaw right now

We will find out soon.

Not seeing a double wind maxima.