TheClimateChanger

Yeah, dry slow was progressing slowly northward. But I noticed now some bands of precipitation racing northward and outpacing the dry slot. Still think we need thing this to pivot eastward stat if we want to get into these higher totals.

Sad to say the orientation of this just doesn't look optimal for Pittsburgh. Doesn't look like the heaviest bands will pivot in time for the big totals. NAM showing up to about 40" of snow now in Geauga County, Ohio.

One inch in the last hour at KYNG. Would expect to see some 2, maybe 3 inch per hour rates later tonight. KYNG 170151Z 08004KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV013 M06/M07 A2964 RMK AO2 SLP055 SNINCR 1/2 P0008 T10561072 RVRNO $

Won't that fill in? Something similar to this: I was in eastern Ohio for that storm. Was in the 50s at midnight the day before, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s late afternoon. Huge dry slot, then the deformation zone started to fill in and heavy snow bands pushed east and remained in place for 12 hours. Picked up 11 inches overnight. Even PIT recorded 4.3 inches of snow on the southeast edge of the band. Erie had just shy of 15 inches officially, but some areas in Erie and Crawford Counties picked up 2-3 feet of snow. And that was in April, to boot.

Rates seem pretty decent to me, especially given all the antecedent dry air (dew points near zero). Started snowing shortly after 4, and ground is covered. Probably 3/4 of an inch. Seems pretty good for less than two hours in to a long duration event

Dynamic cooling dropping the entire column below freezing given the high precipitation rates?

I don't think we have to worry about that. This initial batch is just bonus snow, and it could be substantial no doubt. But the real show we'll be that deformation band or bands north and west of Pittsburgh overnight. And that should be all snow, might even get somewhat higher ratios in the mix as the night wears on. I think the deformation band alone could bring up to a foot of snow or more to some spots. I would expect some storm totals in excess of 20" are possible, especially in NW PA.

This storm: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2013/02/17/april-2-3-2005-northern-ohio-snowstorm/ This summary is focused on Ohio, which saw up to 22 inches in Ashtabula County, but the highest totals were in Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties in New York, where 2-3 feet totals were fairly common. Erie Airport officially tallied only 14.8" but the highest totals were inland away from the lake.

You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm.

Seventh least snowy start to the winter (through 1/4). A lot of missing data is noted for several years - probably just days where no snow was observed, and the entry left blank by the observer. But if there's any real missing data in those years, the snowfall could be higher than shown. I suspect if the records were still kept downtown, it would be even worse than shown.

Snowfall has certainly been paltry so far, particularly in the snow belt. For Cleveland, this has been the eighth least snowiest start to the winter season. And at Erie, the 7th least snowy start and the least snowiest since 1944. Some missing data is noted for Erie in 1924 and 1944. I think that's probably just days where no snow was observed but the observer left the entry blank, but if it's true missing data, then those years might have been snowier than represented in this list. Cleveland Erie

2021 was an impressive year for northern Ohio weatherwise. New annual heat records set or tied in 4 of CLE's 6 first order stations (Toledo, Mansfield, Akron/Canton, and Erie PA). Officially, 6th warmest at Cleveland and Youngstown, although both of those are somewhat questionable. There was a period in the mid 2010s when CLE's readings were clearly a degree or so too warm and the current records are from 2017 and 2016. The last couple of years, the readings appear about a half degree too cool relative to the other stations. In the case of YNG, records at the current airport location began in October 1943, prior to that the threaded station includes records dating to 1930 from the city, as well as a couple years in the late 1800s. The older records are from the city (about 350' lower in elevation, 10 miles further south, and urbanized), so there's probably about a 2-2.5 degree bias from those 1930s readings, which would put the readings in line with neighboring sites. Unfortunately, the 1930s were also a relatively warm period so with the station bias dominate the warm weather records. 2021 did tie 2012 for warmest since records began at the current site. Toledo Mansfield Akron/Canton Erie, PA Cleveland Youngstown

Some locations are near record high annual mean temperatures through yesterday. Will be interesting to see whether the upcoming warmth will be enough for first place on these lists. Buffalo Erie Syracuse Oddly enough, Rochester quite a bit lower than the other closest regional airport sites for both this year and last. Still quite warm, but not close to the top (2020 is 12th). It appears to be a new disconnect as several recent years show up warmer (2006, 2016, 2017, and 2012 at #1). Rochester

Also, the second warmest year to date in Chicago. Might as well root for a mild end to the year to unseat 2012.

Scorching start to meterological fall at Chicago. Over a degree warmer than the second warmest period on record.

Very warm start to meteorological fall in northern Ohio. 5th warmest at Cleveland, warmest on record at Toledo, Mansfield, and Akron/Canton, and 4th warmest on record at Youngstown. Many recent years show up on the top 10/11 locally - with 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 showing similarly warm starts to autumn. In fact, at Cleveland, 5 of the top 6 warmest periods have occurred in the last 6 years, which makes it more difficult keep tabs on what is normal. Cleveland Toledo Mansfield Akron/Canton Youngstown

Similar conditions in Syracuse and Erie (2nd warmest starts to fall). Erie is 0.1 degrees below 1881, and Syracuse is 0.2 degrees below 1931. Records don't extend back into the 1800s there, so no data for 1881. It looks like 1881 and 1931 had early autumns with similar warmth to this one. Syracuse Erie

Roughly half way through meteorological fall, and this has been the warmest such stretch on record by a long shot (almost a degree above 1881). This coming on the heels of one of the hottest summers on record. Not too surprising to see Lake Erie water temperatures setting daily record highs. Other recent warm falls on the top ten list include 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. It probably doesn't "feel" as warm as it actually is, because of how many recent years show up. 4 of the top 8 warmest early fall periods have occurred in the last six years.

I'm probably dating myself with that reference to 1998. A lot of you probably weren't even alive yet. But it was like a nonstop media obsession about the so-called Super El Nino, and how warm it was with wild weather across the globe. Even SNL was doing skits on it.

Very impressive warmth this year in the eastern Great Lakes region. These graphics show rankings of temperatures for the period January 1-October 6 at select locations. What I find remarkable is back in 1998, it was just wall to wall coverage of the anomalous warmth which was at the time blamed on a "Super El Nino." Does anyone else find it weird that 20 years later, we are consistently seeing annual temperatures approach and exceed this levels year after year and there's no media coverage whatsoever? It's just like it became the "new normal" or something. Very weird. Buffalo (Tied 2nd warmest, out of 148 years of data): Erie (3rd warmest, out of 148 years of data): Syracuse (5th warmest, out of 119 years of data): Edit: Also impressive to see 2020 at #4, 7 and 6 respectively across the three sites. This has to be approaching the warmest 2-year period on record.

Some hot weather stats from around the region: Second warmest summer on record at Erie Seventh warmest summer on record at Morgantown Eighth warmest summer on record at Wheeling (a lot of missing data here from 1954-1997, but this was a period of mostly mild summers - only 1988, 1991 and 1995 are really candidates to be on this list, maybe 1973, 1983, 1987). Also, warmest on record at Dubois (tying last year) but records only go back to 1963, as there is no station thread for this site:

I didn't include CLE because of apparent sensor issues over the past couple of years. CLE has been running about 1-1.5F cooler, relative to average, than the other first-order climate sites in CLE's forecast office. Based on climatological normals, CLE should be the second warmest site in the summer (TOL being first warmest) and the warmest in the winter. Yet, inexplicably, it's been reporting the second coldest temperatures in the WFO (only YNG cooler). So it would appear that the temperature sensor is currently reading too low. Location Departure Mean Temperature Normal Mean Temp Cleveland +1.8F 72.2F 70.4F Erie +4.5F 72.7F 68.2F Toledo +2.5F 74.1F 71.6F Mansfield +4.2F 73.2F 69.0F Akron/Canton +2.9F 72.8F 69.9F Youngstown +3.1F 70.6F 67.5F Location Departure Mean Temperature Normal Mean Temp Cleveland -1.8F 72.7F 74.5F Erie -0.4F 72.3F 72.7F Toledo +0.0F 75.4F 75.4F Mansfield +1.1F 73.7F 72.6F Akron/Canton -0.7F 73.2F 73.9F Youngstown -0.4F 71.1F 71.5F Location Departure Mean Temperature Normal Mean Temp Cleveland +1.8F 74.8F 73.0F Erie +3.8F 75.3F 71.6F Toledo +3.2F 76.7F 73.5F Mansfield +4.7F 75.7F 71.0F Akron/Canton +3.6F 75.9F 72.3F Youngstown +3.6F 73.5F 69.9F Regardless, since you asked, it was the 13th warmest summer in Cleveland, tied with 2011, 2002, and 1934. A sensor error of a degree or so can make a huge difference in the summer rankings since there's not that much variance in the temperature records compared to other seasons. Another degree would have put it closer in line to surrounding sites (TOL, MFD, CAK and ERI), all of which recorded top three hottest summers. I would surmise that, if it didn't feel too hot, it was likely due to how many recent years are on this list (2016, 2010, 2005, 2018, 2012, 2017, 2021, 2011, 2002, 2019).

Spartman Special in Dayton this summer. Tied 2007 for 10th warmest August, plus 10 90+ days during the month. 14th warmest summer on record and, more importantly, the warmest since 1995 and third warmest on record at the airport (surpassed only by 1995 and 1988). Most of those early years should be tossed from the downtown rooftop station. August Summer

Similar story in Mansfield. Third warmest August, and the #1 warmest summer on record (edging out the scorching summer of 2020, and the Dust Bowl era summer of 1934). August Summer

Third warmest August, and third warmest summer on record at Akron/Canton. The all-time warmest summers occurred "way back" in 2016 and 2020, narrowly edging out this past summer. Also the top 4 warmest summers there have occurred in the past six years (2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021). August Summer