TheClimateChanger

NAM doesn't look too bad. 36-hour QPF at the end of the run is 0.25-0.5" throughout southwest Pennsylvania, with a bullseye of .5-.75" in eastern Westmoreland - all of which falls as snow. Would probably support a 3-5" snowfall areawide, with some 6 or 7" lollipops in the higher elevations east of the city. Still snowing lightly areawide at Hour 84 as well, per the simulated radar.

About 2 1/4” today, on top of 4 1/2” yesterday. Not bad. Feels like I teleported to Erie.

Per Twitter, snow has changed to freezing rain in New Philadelphia, Ohio.

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Very picturesque with the deep snowpack and heavy snow falling.

Yeah, looks like another decent little event tomorrow. Surprised their are no WWAs in effect for the ridges. Looks like some of the higher elevations could see in excess of 4 inches.

No, I think the measurement was about right. I'm 9 miles from the airport at a similar elevation, and had 8 1/4" when I measured at 8 AM. Probably picked up about another inch between then and 11 AM and noon when the snow stopped.

Oh, well, there's about 3" in Beaver County. I'm sure the NWS office in Moon will have a respectable total.

We've already had 2.5-3 inches?

Agreed. And I'd argue that 7 or 8 inches of heavy, wet sleet-laden snow has more sticking power than a foot of dry powder anyways.

Yes, I know it's very close to the airport. I just mentioned that to point out the fact that the NWS office report is the official observation.

I would say 8"+ is a lock for the official storm total, although double digits are probably unlikely unless a few random heavier squalls were to occur in northwest Allegheny County.

The snow map shows a report of 7" as of 7 am at the NWS office at 1 N CARNOT-MOON. I believe that's where the official snow records are observed, not at the airport. Given the continued light snow over the past two hours, would have to think they are up to 7.5" or so by now.

I’m about 10 miles from the airport and have 8.25” on the ground. Possibly some additional accumulation today

Just measured close to 4 inches at my house in Beaver County, with a mix of snow and sleet still falling. Messaged my friend in the Youngstown area and he said it's up to 6" on the ground there now, which is 4" more than when he measured two hours ago. So it must be snowing quite hard in some areas.

For what it's worth, it looks like Youngstown turned back to snow (at least at the airport). They picked up another inch in the past hour after the changeover (0.17" liquid), but even there it's only 4" on the ground so far. KYNG 170451Z 04004KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A2943 RMK AO2 FZRAE0359SNB0359PLB0359E15 PRESFR SLP979 SNINCR 1/4 P0017 I1000 T10281039 410061128 RVRNO $

The dry slot has pretty much entirely filled along the western border of Pennsylvania from Beaver, west Allegheny, and Washington Counties. But it's still sleet and freezing rain mix. That seems to be the bigger problem. It should be ripping snow from here on west. Yet, there's mixed precipitation extending all the way into northeast Ohio.

Yeah, dry slow was progressing slowly northward. But I noticed now some bands of precipitation racing northward and outpacing the dry slot. Still think we need thing this to pivot eastward stat if we want to get into these higher totals.

Sad to say the orientation of this just doesn't look optimal for Pittsburgh. Doesn't look like the heaviest bands will pivot in time for the big totals. NAM showing up to about 40" of snow now in Geauga County, Ohio.

One inch in the last hour at KYNG. Would expect to see some 2, maybe 3 inch per hour rates later tonight. KYNG 170151Z 08004KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV013 M06/M07 A2964 RMK AO2 SLP055 SNINCR 1/2 P0008 T10561072 RVRNO $

Won't that fill in? Something similar to this: I was in eastern Ohio for that storm. Was in the 50s at midnight the day before, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s late afternoon. Huge dry slot, then the deformation zone started to fill in and heavy snow bands pushed east and remained in place for 12 hours. Picked up 11 inches overnight. Even PIT recorded 4.3 inches of snow on the southeast edge of the band. Erie had just shy of 15 inches officially, but some areas in Erie and Crawford Counties picked up 2-3 feet of snow. And that was in April, to boot.

Rates seem pretty decent to me, especially given all the antecedent dry air (dew points near zero). Started snowing shortly after 4, and ground is covered. Probably 3/4 of an inch. Seems pretty good for less than two hours in to a long duration event

Dynamic cooling dropping the entire column below freezing given the high precipitation rates?

I don't think we have to worry about that. This initial batch is just bonus snow, and it could be substantial no doubt. But the real show we'll be that deformation band or bands north and west of Pittsburgh overnight. And that should be all snow, might even get somewhat higher ratios in the mix as the night wears on. I think the deformation band alone could bring up to a foot of snow or more to some spots. I would expect some storm totals in excess of 20" are possible, especially in NW PA.

This storm: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2013/02/17/april-2-3-2005-northern-ohio-snowstorm/ This summary is focused on Ohio, which saw up to 22 inches in Ashtabula County, but the highest totals were in Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties in New York, where 2-3 feet totals were fairly common. Erie Airport officially tallied only 14.8" but the highest totals were inland away from the lake.