TheClimateChanger

10:1 Ratio:

0z GFS (Kuchera ratio):

The 0z GFS still looks like a decent hit.

Well, alrighty then, better get the generator ready…

Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles.

Not much snow on the NAM, but it does seem to be trending towards a pretty substantial mixed precipitation event. Shows about 1-2" of sleet or sleet/snow mix in the north, with a band of up to an inch of freezing rain through the metro area.

Here's the official NWS forecast through Thursday at 7 PM:

Well, it's supposed to account for melting and other effects. But it's only showing a couple inches of change between now and Thursday evening. It does seem to keep temperatures mostly below 40.

Uhhh, this doesn't look too good...

I like the Canadian snow depth map. This includes snow on the ground now. I'm not sure how these things are generated, as it certainly doesn't really jive with the snowfall maps. But it's fun to look at!

Today's 12z run of the UKMET continues to look pretty good for our region. It's been pretty adamant about the further south track.

Looks like the NWS isn't expecting much. This is area-wide from the current HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Widespread and periodic preciptation associated mid to late week frontal encroachment will result in mixed wintry precipitation which could need a Winter Weather Advisory. Looks like they aren't anticipating the need for Winter Storm Watches or Warnings anywhere in the CWA. We get advisories for a trace of freezing drizzle so they aren't going too far out on a limb.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the colors. Those snowfall maps with the razor-thin cutoffs are inflating the snowfall relative to the depth change and (incorrectly) excluding sleet accumulations. I mean have you ever seen a (non-lake effect) storm go from 5" in Akron to two feet in Cleveland? Lol.

Much better look. At hour 84 (Thursday evening), the NAM is now showing freezing rain for many places north of the city. Still think it's way too amped, I can't see this wave of low pressure just bullying that 1050-1055 mb high pressing south from Canada. Normally, the biggest player is the low pressure system. In this case, however, the strongest feature appears to be that high pressure pushing south from Canada. I would think that arctic high would have a huge say-so in the ultimate track of this storm system.

Sleet counts as snowfall in the weather records, so if the snowfall maps are completely excluding sleet they are going to come in too low. Normally, it wouldn't make a big difference as sleet accumulations are typically an inch or less. But the GFS shows several hours of heavy sleet with the snowfall maps (even the 10:1) not detecting any accumulation. If that were to actually occur, then yes, 3, 4, 5 inches of sleet are possible, which are being excluded from the snowfall maps. If you get an inch of QPF to fall as sleet at a 3-5:1 snow to liquid ratio, then that's 3-5 inches of sleet.

Nevermind. A big part of the disconnect is your map cuts out substantial snowfall that occurs after 3z Friday. There's still some weirdness going on, but a lot of those places are projected to receive several inches of snow later Thursday night into Friday.

Seems to be a disconnect between the Pivotal snowfall maps and the Pivotal change in snow depth maps. Some areas on the southern edge are projected to have a positive snow depth change of a foot or more, but depicted to receive little if any snowfall.

It never actually plays out like when the snowfall algorithms show those razor thin cutoffs like that in these types of setups. What would probably actually happen is a couple to a few inches of snowfall around the Pittsburgh to like 6, 7, 8, maybe 9 inches of snow around I-80. I suspect a lot of that along the southern edge of the heavy snowfall is actually slop - i.e., mixed sleet and freezing rain. The warm air aloft always makes it further north than expected. So even the 10:1 map is probably inflated.

TWC showing 4-6” near the airport Thursday night into Friday (see attached screenshot). Looks like they think this is 1-3, 2-4 from the city south. 4-6 in the northern part of the metro, with 6-10 further north towards I-80.

Next week not looking too bad on the 00z GFS. Quite a bit of precipitation spread out over a rather long duration, but depicts some showers (maybe a bit of freezing rain at first) evolving to a steady rain, then changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, and then snow, possibly a few inches. The snowfall maps on Pivotal were showing upwards of 5-7" but appear to be inflated due to the mixed precipitation. Kind of an unsual setup but looks believable in this case given the very strong arctic high pushing south from Canada.

Some very large diurnal ranges across the region. After temperatures below zero this morning (in some cases, way below zero), the mercury has climbed to near freezing across the region: Cambridge, OH (KCDI) 32/-16 (48 degree swing) Zanesville, OH (KZZV) 31/-11 (42 degree swing) New Philadelphia, OH (KPHD) 29/-11 (40 degree swing) New Castle, PA (KUCP) 26/-12 (38 degree swing) Butler, PA (KBTP) 30/-10 (40 degree swing) Washington, PA (KAFJ) 34/-7 (41 degree swing) Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT) 29/-6 (35 degree swing) The Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge site has had a 62 degree swing (Hi: 31/ Low: -31).

Temperatures were all over the place. My car thermometer was registering changes of 20+ degrees in just a few miles. From double digit readings below zero to near 10F above.