TheClimateChanger

The NWS has also quietly changed the frost and freeze criteria. All of those frost and freeze advisories and warnings that were near constant through April [and have been common in recent years] would NOT have been issued in past decades because the growing season was not considered to have begun by that point in these areas. A lot of NWS offices now just use the amorphous phrase "during the growing season" but there is still some residual evidence of the traditional criteria. You see all the frost and freeze warnings, and think "wow, it must be cold this spring. Never seen so many frost warnings." BUT that's because these events would have all been unwarned in the past. Here's the traditional criteria for some NWS offices: CTP The traditional growing season [and issuance of frost/freeze products] does not start until May 21 in the northwest mountains and would have just begun May 11 in the second tier of counties. There were numerous frost/freeze products issued in April in these areas. IWX Source: Northern Indiana Watch, Warning and Advisory Criteria (weather.gov) Note - issued only between May 1 and October 20, yet these products were issued numerous times by IWX this April.

Most of this is not due to any sort of "strange disconnect" but due to people's perception of what is normal being warped. It used to be perfectly normal for Lake Erie to be covered in ice (or at least substantial ice coverage) at Buffalo, New York, well into May. This year, the water temperature is 52F, one shy of the record for the date set in 2012 & 2000. Source: Lake Erie May Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov) Just scanning through this, you can see ice [as signified by underlying water at the freezing point] was present through at least May 10, 1928; May 1, 1930; May 16, 1936; May 6, 1939; May 10, 1940; May 12, 1943; May 15, 1947 [thermometer appears to be reading 1F warm this year]; May 9, 1959; May 11, 1963; May 12, 1965; May 23, 1971; May 2, 1972; May 12, 1978; May 7, 1982; May 2, 1996; and May 1, 2014. In this data, we can see the first shift to a new climate regime following the 1982-1983 Super El Nino event. While prior to that El Nino event, ice was commonplace in the month of May, it is now exceptionally rare. Ice past the middle of May, as occurred in 1936 & 1971, is almost unfathomable today. I mean 2014 was regarded as exceptionally cold, but came nowhere near reproducing that effect. We can substantial ice was present on the east end of Lake Erie deep into May 1936, while some icebergs remained through May 31, 1936. This during the so-called hottest summer on record. Funny how we're told how hot it was in the 1930s & 1940s, yet that heat doesn't show up in water.

Here is one recent example of Tony cherry-picking 1921. My question if millions died in 1921's "record heat wave" and every recent year has been much hotter, how many tens of millions of climate deaths are they hiding each and every year? One might say "air conditioning" but many of the world's poorest regions are some of the hottest places on earth, and the global population has exploded since then. There must be tens of millions of deaths being swept under the table or the 1921 reporting was incorrect.

Looking at the data, the only pre-21st century year with a similar spring appears to be 1921. I always laugh when Tony Heller posts stories from 1921 - he does it very frequently. I don't know what point he is trying to make. Pretty much every year is as warm or warmer than 1921 these days. The same weather in 2024 would probably be dismissed as chilly. Yet back then it was enough to do multiple page spreads about the "millions of heat deaths." By the same standard, every single year needs to have multiple spreads of coverage in the 21st century. But our derelict media doesn't do this anymore. And people like Tony will complain about media hype when they do cover a weather event these days, without one lick of irony.

Why do so many people on here act as though it's been a chilly spring? It's been unbelievably hot. DCA By contrast, 7 of 19 years from 1874 to 1892 (inclusive) had mean temperatures roughly 10F or more cooler than this spring. That would have been fairly typical for late 19th century Washington - nearly 2 out of 5 years. To get similar conditions in the year of our Lord, 2024, one would have to teleport to Syracuse, New York. Even climbing nearly 2,000 feet and going to where literally noone lives [pop density of Randolph County is 27/square mile] is not enough. The mean of 52.5F at Elkins, West Virginia, is warmer than 84 of 153 years of record in DC. The data does not lie. This is an unbelievably hot spring. I'm not even exaggerating. It's literally an unbelievably hot spring, with hardly any parallel in record history prior to 2010. If you foisted spring of 2024 on an unsuspecting 19th century population, they would likely believe the world was about to end because (1) it was so far outside the bounds of normality; and (2) they were ignorant. Yet now it's considered chilly. Can someone explain this phenomenon to me?

I suppose. In the same sense that the recent cooldown is skewing the numbers downward.

Bit of an understatement. It's the second hottest spring on record to date in the Washington, DC threaded record, and hottest at IAD. A little cooler at Baltimore, I guess. Sixth highest in the threaded record, although the second hottest at the airport. The old Customs House records should have an asterisk attached to them. It was so hot there the NWS stopped taking readings at that site after 1998. DC Threaded IAD Baltimore Thread

Funnel cloud west of Youngstown.

Northern lights are visible to naked eye.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 527 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 OHC013-WVC051-092145- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-240509T2145Z/ Belmont OH-Marshall WV- 527 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BELMONT AND MARSHALL COUNTIES... At 527 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Glen Dale, or over Moundsville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Moundsville, Bellaire, Shadyside, McMechen, and Glen Dale around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rocklick, Lone Oak, Grand Vue Park, Dallas, Beelers Station, Sherrard, Glendale, and Benwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 3991 8083 4000 8081 4003 8063 4002 8052 3987 8052 TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 269DEG 21KT 3995 8078 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Milcarek

I don't know if I'd agree that there's been a substantial change in the UHI in Philadelphia. The population was over 1 million by 1890, and over 2 million by 1950.

My question: if I installed a mercury thermometer housed in a Stevenson screen or cotton region shelter on a hot rooftop in center city Philly, how many 90+ days would it register each summer these days?

I just don't buy it. When I look at the annual weather review from 1950, Philadelphia was renowned for its moderate climate - seldom getting too cold or hot. They do acknowledge the humidity adds to the discomfort of the summertime temperature, but I'd be willing to bet humidity has gone way up since then. As for as temperatures were concerned, they report an average of 14 90+ days, but this was from a hot rooftop site in the center city. Today, Philadelphia is a blazing inferno in the summertime where you would die without A/C. Who even knows when the last time there was 14 or fewer 90+ days? Rooftop stations can get way hotter during the day than ground-level stations. What really gets the noggin joggin' is this is how all the old temperatures were taken. So how cold was it really in the past? Like in 1999, NOAA said "SHUT IT DOWN"... yet that's how the temperatures had always been taken at the Baltimore Common House. Wouldn't that bias have been present throughout the history of the site, and then we just graft on the much colder airport records. And, of course, people still kvetch about those BWI temperatures all the time. Source: How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore's Rooftop USHCN Station – Watts Up With That?

This is what I suggested might be the case. Each of the individual component stations with a positive trend, while averaging across the basket of stations [changing over time] manufactures a negative trend. You did not put the Coatesville 2W trend, but it certainly looks positive over the period for which data is available. MQS is probably positive, although it could be flat or slightly down due to starting near a warm set of summers. Chesco's BY data is slightly down, but, like I said yesterday, that's probably just an artifact of him changing equipment.

Hancock County tornado confirmed to be at least EF2.

Got to love that period of overlap. The site with more than twice as many 90+ days drops out after a handful of years of overlap, and replaced with his own weather station. Oh, lookey here, 90+ days are plummeting! At the same time everyone else is sweltering through three scorching summers (2010-2012). Honestly, I'm not even sure if the trend from his own backyard data is "real" because he has changed equipment and siting in that time. I bet there was a change around 2012/2013. For all the hullabaloo about siting, his "official" station [he has three] is right next to a stand of tall trees. Clearly not sited at a distance 4x the length of the obstructions, with considerable shading. Unironically, the rooftop station is probably the best sited in his case.

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring? New York, NY Newark, NJ Hartford, CT Philadelphia, PA Burlington, VT Harrisburg, PA Pittsburgh, PA Buffalo, NY Washington - Dulles, VA

Looks like that was the first or second recorded tornado to touchdown in Hancock County. Not sure whether that 1990 tornado touched down in the county. The NWS PBZ site is ambiguous, with some data showing 0 and some showing 1 prior tornado. There's actually a lot of issues with this, with the map showing Ohio County with 0, and the table showing Brooke County with 0. The map is only updated through 2020, there has been at least 1 tornado in Ohio County since then. And Brooke County has had at least 1 tornado. The table appears to have juxtaposed the data from Brooke & Ohio, so it looks like every county in the CWA has now had at least one tornado. Obviously, the biggest reason the W. Va. panhandle counties have so few reported tornadoes is due to their small area. Although there does seem to be fewer in eastern Ohio there as well. Not sure if it's population or perhaps the rough terrain of the Ohio River Valley causing a relative minimum. Link: NWS Pittsburgh Severe Weather Climatology

How about the nation's "Air Conditioned City" - Bluefield, West Virginia. Nobody lives in Mercer County, West Virginia, so I think it's safe to say this isn't UHI. Looks like the 21st century hasn't been so kind... almost like it's warming or something. Coldest summertime lows Warmest summertime lows