TheClimateChanger

Southern Beaver County.

About an inch and a half here, of which about 1” fell in last hour

Very heavy snowfall now, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces.

Snowing at a decent clip here. Visibility not too bad, but big, fat flakes are falling. Ground is coated.

Probably the warmest January on record locally, but obviously somewhat inflated. Cincinnati's 19th century and early 20th century observations are also inflated - while that area is somewhat lower in elevation generally being downstream on the Ohio River, the move from downtown to the fringe suburbs was accompanied by a similar elevation jump as in Pittsburgh with the move to the two airports. The weather bureau continued to take records downtown until, I believe, 1971, and from 1952-1971, the downtown station averaged 2.6 degrees warmer than Pittsburgh International Airport. And AGC averages about 0.6F warmer than PIT over the past couple of decades, although the last couple years it's been somewhat greater than that. The 19th century records seem to have other biases, probably from the rooftop siting. Could be 3-5 degrees warmer than modern records, which would suggest that month may have been more like 39.5-41.5 if measured at PIT using modern equipment. Probably still good for #1. September 1881 is another month that's obviously "juiced up". Almost certainly was the warmest September, but the measurement biases elevate it so much that even with global warming, I doubt we'll see that "official" figure beaten. Certainly not in our lifetimes.

Honestly, it probably should be higher than 1 in 4, given the map projection. Wheeling and Morgantown are both roughly 1 in 3 chances [32 and 35 percent]. The GEFS always goes bonkers with the urban heat island effect in Pittsburgh for some reason.

Not sure. The last blizzard warning issued by PBZ was during Hurricane Sandy for the ridge tops.

Looks like 12 was the official high. These arctic air masses are always difficult to gauge as they tend to pay no mind to the typical diurnal temperature regime. Too bad we couldn’t string at least one good radiational cooling night (clear skies, light winds) to see what we could have bottomed out at it.

-4 now at the airport, with a 29 mph wind gusting to 40.

Maybe a snow squall warning?

Hour 39 temperatures: Hour 39 Simulated Radar: I don't see any snow. The precipitation shield is confined to places above freezing, except in northwest Ohio. For Pittsburgh, it looks like a burst of heavy rain, then maybe occasional flurries / light snow later in the day, which shouldn't amount to much in the extremely dry, arctic air.

I don't understand this snowfall map at all. It doesn't even look consistent with what the model is showing. The model is showing little if any snowfall. The precipitation pretty much shuts off on the modeled composite radar right as the cold front passes, after that temperatures and, especially, dewpoints absolutely crater, with precipitable water values plummeting to near zero. Where is all this snowfall coming from?

Looks like the November 1950 storm, with rain and warm temperatures in Buffalo, and snow, wind and frigid weather in Pittsburgh.

Interesting. Is the reported temperature averaged over a certain interval of time, while the dewpoint is an instantaneous measure on this equipment? Why did the dewpoint drop so substantially before the temperature especially with fairly substantial precipitation falling?

On the Kuchera maps at hour 63, it hasn't even started snowing anywhere near Grove City. Three hours later, it shows 10 inches. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen.

Well... I guess the 18z GFS sees the possibility of up to 24" in northwest Butler County, at least on these inflated Kuchera maps. Although I have no idea how the model is coming up with that amount. The whole map looks bizarre and splotchy.

Looks like the friction and uplift from the buildings might squeeze out an extra inch or two. Congrats.

Well, this seems a little bit optimistic, no? I don't think anywhere near us is actually going to see "heavy snow" except up by the Lake Erie shoreline.

Interesting. Could it be drought feedback (looked like the vast majority of the CONUS was at least abnormally dry in the most drought monitor), coupled with the fact that this is true, Arctic air [very cold and dry]?

I guess it's fairly impressive for late December. Current point-click centered on Pittsburgh International Airport has 15 for Christmas Eve, and 17 for Christmas Day, which would be the 2nd and 5th coldest max temperatures on record. Especially with the trend towards warmer Decembers. Midnight highs can always effect those figures, but looking at the timing of the cold front, I don't see that being an issue.

Very La Nina-ish. Looks like January 1950, with the crazy amounts of rainfall. Warm temperatures in the east, with cold and snow locked in the west and upper Midwest.

Looks very -PNA ish. Maybe these forecasts are underestimating the La Niña, and the cold will stay locked out in the west and upper Midwest.