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TheClimateChanger

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  1. TheClimateChanger
    The view from the RAP-SMOKE is probably better since it shows Canada too. Lots of smoke gathering over central Canada. You can kind of imagine this could make a beeline for Pennsylvania if it were to get caught up in some NW to SE oriented jet stream winds. I think we would need the trough to flatten and push east to get into more of a NW flow pattern.
  2. TheClimateChanger
    One thing I haven't seen much discussion of is how the extensive wildfire smoke might affect the upcoming temperatures? We've been fortunate so far that impacts have been minimal, but I do wonder if we won't start to see more smokiness and haze as we head into late summer. There's some evidence that wildfire smoke could lead to lower temperatures. Last summer saw several episodes of dense smoke, and it was the coldest summer at Harrisburg since 2017. Another good analog is 1950. Read about the Chinchaga fire storms, and Black Sunday here in the Commonwealth. Fascinating stuff. 1950 is tied with 1979 for 13th coldest summer at Harrisburg, and it came on the heels of the scorching summer of 1949. After this summer is complete, 1949 will drop into a 3-way tie for 18th warmest [with 2018 & 1955]. However, at the time, the heat of 1949 was nearly unparalleled among records dating to the 19th century, being exceeded only in the summers of 1900 and 1943. Nobody then foresaw a future where a mean of 75.4F would become rather pedestrian at Harrisburg [having been met or exceeded in 11 of the last 23 summers*]. So the drop-off between 1949 & 1950 must have been quite a shocker to the locals - perhaps a bit of a relief as well in those pre-A/C days. *Yes, 2024 is not complete. But the mean will most certainly exceed 75.4F.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    But my post was talking about the mean maximum temperature for summer to date, so it sounds like the only thing you really care about is arguing for the hell of it.
  4. TheClimateChanger
    After further review, 1949 is missing the entire month of June at MPO. So toss that year, and make it 6th warmest (of 114 years).
  5. TheClimateChanger
    You're comparing the mean of 53 days with 1 day? But to answer your question, I have a scorching 88F on the trusty weather station.
  6. TheClimateChanger
    Also, I've been told in the past that only maximum temperatures count. That is, that people judge summer heat by maximum temperature, and minimum temperatures don't count. The rankings are very similar across the board for mean maximum temperature. Every site is within 2 places of its mean temperature ranking if re-ranked by maximum temperature, with the exception of MPO and IPT. So we are legit cooking, and it's not just some overly inflated minimum temperatures.
  7. TheClimateChanger
    I think there's a reason to expect extreme heat at some point in the 6-14 day timeframe when CPC is saying there's an 80-90% chance heat index readings reach at or above the mid to upper 90s.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    Extreme heat for CPC purposes is defined as a heat index roughly in the mid 90s for this time of the year in the Commonwealth. Those temperatures with unseasonably high dewpoints could easily attain that, and could even approach heat advisory criteria for a day or two. We can see the threshold for the 6-10 day period for "above normal MHI" is less than 95F for most of the state. This value actually appears to peak a couple weeks before maximum temperatures are achieved, as it's started to come down over the past couple of weeks. We can see in the 6-10 day period, there is an 80-90 percent chance that the heat index will peak above the 95F threshold. We can see in the 8-14 day max heat index outlook, the threshold is a bit higher. Not because that's a hotter period on average, but because there's two extra days in the period. So the threshold for what's considered an above normal MHI is higher. We have a 70-90 percent chance of reaching this threshold at some point over the period. Of course, there's some overlap in the two periods, so it could very well be on the same date. Anyways, no reason to suspect we are done with extreme heat for the near future.
  9. TheClimateChanger
    Oh wait, I almost forgot about East Nantmeal. That's the place to beat the heat in the Commonwealth. It's even colder than the ridgetops.
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Anyways, shaping up to be an HISTORIC summer of epic proportions in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. CPC says more heat in the offing over the next 2 weeks and into the month of August, although there appears to be some disagreement there. Harrisburg - warmest of 137-year POR Reading - warmest of 129-year POR [by 1.2F] Bradford - warmest of 66-year POR [by 1.4F] DuBois - warmest of 59-year POR [by 1.0F] Altoona - 2nd warmest of 77-year POR Williamsport - 2nd warmest of 130-year POR Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - 3rd warmest of 124-year POR Philadelphia - 3rd warmest of 151+ year POR Allentown - Tied 4th warmest of 103 year POR Mount Pocono - 7th warmest of 115-year POR Pittsburgh - Tied 7th warmest of 150-year POR, by far hottest at the airport site Erie - The place to beat the heat in 2024. "Only" 11th warmest of 152-year POR.
  11. TheClimateChanger
    I'd probably trust the experts at CPC more than a model, no?
  12. TheClimateChanger
    I didn't say anything about dropping it - just said it was inflated. We can see it looks to be running 2F warmer by daytime maxima than this year: But if we compare to the same location where the observation was made. Much of that disappears, and it is less than 1F warmer at Capital City Airport. But it's also inflated compared to surrounding observations, although there are a few sites that had similarly high readings. It looks like 1966 was a drought year, perhaps locally more severe drought conditions caused the grass and sod surrounding the thermometer site to die resulting in artificially inflated readings. If we look at the Hagerstown thread, we find 1966 only in 32nd place for warmest to date, tied with 1999 & 1934. At Williamsport, 1966 is only 112th warmest [of 130 years], tied with 1983, 1945 & 1918. This also means it's tied for 16th coldest to date. At Philadelphia, 1966 is only 54th warmest to date, tied with 2023, 1955 & 1932. This means there is a wide range in characterizing the temperature of 1966 in the region. Some places record it as a cold summer (IPT), some places as a lukewarm/moderate summer (PHL, HGR), and some as a hot summer (MDT, RDG, ABE). By contrast, this scorching summer is in the Top 4 hottest to date at all six of these long-term, first order, ThreadEx sites: RDG (#1), MDT (#1), IPT (#2), HGR (#2), PHL (#3), ABE (#4).
  13. TheClimateChanger
  14. TheClimateChanger
    Does anyone know how the NWS determined how much rain fell at HGR the other day? I saw some discussion here. The precipitation sensor had failed and wasn't reporting any rainfall accumulation. The precipitation data was originally listed as "missing" but now they are reporting 2.93" fell.
  15. TheClimateChanger
    The "raw data" graph presented by Martz is patently absurd. It shows 2019 as one of the coldest years on record. The only two years that are clearly colder are 1912 & 1917. It's as cold - maybe even a bit colder - than the late 1970s. I must have missed the months of bitterly cold and deep snow in 2019? What's funny is it shows the raw data being warmer than the adjusted data as recently as the early 2000s with the two being fairly close until 2016. Beginning in 2017, the raw data starts dropping precipitously below the adjusted data. How can any meteorologist think that is the real trend, or at least present it as the real trend? The claims about TOBs are also ridiculous. The observer was to reset the thermometers at a fixed time each day, and they recorded the temperature at time of observation as the set maximum.
  16. TheClimateChanger
    Only a little over a tenth of an inch IMBY, which finally brings the monthly tally to a bit more than an inch.
  17. TheClimateChanger
    Another? We haven't seen this pattern much at all this summer. The highest heat anomalies have been over the Mid Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast.
  18. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like some rain on the way for a change. At the moment, the radar depiction looks exaggerated from ground truths. Wheeling has only had 0.01" despite some dark greens and yellows overhead for some time (see below). Cloud ceiling is way up at 12,000 feet, so dry air in the lower levels are making it difficult for the rain to make it all the way to the surface. There are, however, some embedded, slow-moving heavier downpours, especially across Greene and southern Washington Counties. The Washington County Airport recently observed thunder, although no measurable rain has fallen yet.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like a rough winter for a snow weenie in Miami.
  20. TheClimateChanger
    Lots of filthy air up there in Canada.
  21. TheClimateChanger
    Do you guys think this enormous smoke plume will help to lower temperatures as it moves east?
  22. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like summer is over, between all the volcanos and this gigantic smoke pall forming over west North America, the sun doesn’t stand a chance.
  23. TheClimateChanger
    So my conclusion is this: Winter minima have been increasing at Detroit. The trend is, however, lessened by the impact of anomalously cold minima temperatures observed in the first couple of decades after the official observation site moved to the southwest. In recent decades, the trend is actually overstated due to increasing urbanization in the vicinity of the international airport. Moving forward, I would expect mean winter minimum temperatures to continue to climb, reaching the mid 20s F by mid-century (2040s - 2060s) and 30F by the end of this century [perhaps even higher in a heightened carbon scenario].
  24. TheClimateChanger
    Looking at the historic station thread. We also see good reason to conclude that the minimum temperatures in the 19th century and early 20th century were colder than observed. What we see is this: There was a rooftop exposure in general through 1933, at ever increasingly tall buildings - presumably to accommodate wind and other measurements. A trend which reached its zenith atop the Majestic Building some 218 feet above the ground. From at least 1881 through April 1887, the thermometer was housed in an enclosure on a northwest window of the Board of Trade Building. Looking at the stated height above ground, this appears to have been housed on a 4-6th story window of a building that appears to have been between about 6 and 8 stories high judging by the roof height reported after the station was moved to the roof on May 1, 1887. Rooftop stations have been observed to report higher temperatures than corresponding ground-based stations, and window stations even higher. With proper siting and a location away from the core urban heat island, it is likely that temperatures would have been substantially cooler than reported. For more information on the Majestic Building, see: Majestic Building (Detroit) - Wikipedia
  25. TheClimateChanger
    In recent decades, the difference between the two sites has gotten smaller as development has increased near the international airport. City Airport still tends to observe higher minima, however. The difference has shrunk to a bit less than 1F. City Airport [2010-2024] DTW [2010-2024]
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