TheClimateChanger

I would agree. There seems to be little objective evidence that this has "not been a hot summer" in the New York City metro area. It looks like it's top 3-5 to date at all of the local climate sites. I do note there's been a push on this forum to redefine what a hot summer is to strictly look at the number of 90+ days and/or to consider only one's subjective feelings rather than objective facts. But even with the 90+ metric, 2024 is doing pretty well in most places. At Central Park, only 18 years (dating to 1869) have had more days at or above 90F. And this is despite the encroaching jungle / shading of the ASOS. At Newark, only 10 years have had more days at or above 90F [3 of those 10 with just 1 more]. It's actually not normal for there to be constant 90s in the New York City area. If you think it is, you are misremembering. Now, it is true that JFK has only had 2 such days, which is actually one of the lower tallies there. But that's not representative of much of the region.

Also, people, it's actually not normal to have constant 90s in the summer - even in hot summers, in much of the northeast. Looking at ORH airport data only, I can find only 9 years with more 90s at this point in the year (out of 77 years). So only about 1 in 9 summers historically would be expected to have more 90s at this point, and none since 1999. BTV, dating back to the 1800s, only 9 years have had more 90s at this point. By contrast, 22 years had 0 90s at this point & 40 years had only 1 or fewer. CON, 8th most dating back to 1869. Only 2 years since 1978 have had more. It's crazy to me how people have to redefine what a hot summer is to pretend it's not a hot summer.

2F above normal with the artificially inflated 1991-2010 norms is a HOT month. They already raised the norms like 1-2F from what they were in the 1990s. So this same month would have been considered blazing hot in the 1990s. 3-4F is a big deal in July. Let's play a game. Is it the hottest summer to date in SNE? At ORH, yes. At BOS, no. Tied for sixth place. CON, that would be a no. 4th place officially, but these are some suspiciously high readings from the early 1870s. BDL, yes. Just outside the greater SNE region. ALB, yes. Probably more NNE, but BTV. No, in 2nd place, 0.1F behind the blazing hot summer of 2020. Mount Washington, New Hampshire (MWN). No, 3rd place.

That was also the 5th 90+ day of the season at Bradford. Since records began in 1957, only one calendar year had more 90+ days. In 1988, a total of 8 days reached at least 90F at the Bradford Regional Airport.

Record high of 90F at Bradford today, easily breaking the record of 87F set in 1988. A couple other locations approached record highs as well. DuBois reached 89F, 3F shy of the record set in 1988. Altoona topped out at 92F, 2F below the record set in 2002.

2011-2024 is only 14 years, so that means nearly half of them were among the top 14 warmest of 130 years. Widening out ever so slightly, and 8 of the top 20 have occurred in the past 15 years.

It's always surprising to me how much colder Chicago is than Cleveland in the wintertime. Being upwind versus downwind of the Great Lakes makes a huge difference. 1956-1985 at CLE (Dfb, bordering on Dfa): Last 10 years below. Very solidly Dfa. The mean of the coldest month is 1.6F warmer than the mean of the coldest month at Morgantown, West Virginia, from 1956-1985. Looks to be on the same path as PIT. Likely Cfa by mid-century using 0C definition.

Looks like the border between warm summer and hot summer subtypes is actually 22C, which is 71.6F. Looking at historical data, the "normal" July mean at PIT (Pittsburgh International) was 71.9F in the 1960s and in the 1980s climatology. The 1960s climatology was based, in part, on a smaller POR and comparative data to infill since records didn't begin until 1952. I believe the 1970s climatology had the mean at 72.3F. Technically hot summer continental (Dfa), albeit bordering on warm summer continental (Dfb). Today is solidly hot summer continental (Dfb). The more significant change coming soon - at least as far as the Koppen classification is concerned - will be the transition to humid subtropical climate (Cfa). Based on the data presented below, I would surmise that this transition will occur within the next 20-25 years (extrapolating from trends over recent decades). Looking at data for the last 10 years, we can see the mean of the coldest month is 29.9F over that period. Above the traditional -3C criteria, but still below the 0C criteria typically used for North American climates. 60 miles to the south, we can see Morgantown, WV has averaged 32.3F in its coldest month over the past 30 years, making it fully Cfa by all metrics. By contrast, the 30-year mean from 1956 to 1985 was 28.3F, so that's a 4F rise in just 40 years. Heck, even February was colder than recent Januarys back then. Interestingly, it that period, even Morgantown was only about 0.5C above the border for warm summer continental (Dfb).

I think this is something lost on a lot of people. Some like to point to a few scattered years in the historical records and say "look, it's been hotter." But they ignore the fact, that also scattered in the mix were many summers that were far colder than any recent summer. Like 2003 & 2004 at KPIT, the highest temperature was 88F in that 2-year stretch. What are the odds of that recurring any time soon?

Good luck on that one. I suspect 2003 & 2004 were the last mild summers on record. By mild, I mean in a historical sense. Obviously, there will always be cooler than normal summers [like last year], but due to the rising means, those wind up nowhere near historically cold summers.

I mean 6 of the top 14 [and 5 of the Top 10, for that matter] in the last 14 years with records dating to the 1800s is still pretty dominant.

It's a good thing we have objective data to analyze this instead of one's feelings. Probably when you were a kid, you were out in the heat and now as an adult have to work in an air conditioned setting. Even sorted by mean maximum temperature, the top 4 hottest summers at DCA have all occurred since 2010. Obviously, 2024 is not over but it certainly appears destined to place in the Top 5, which would mean the Top 5 have occurred in a 15-year span. Further, there's a good reason to believe the values from 1986 to 1995 at DCA [and all other first order sites] were inflated relative to readings before and after that era [which included several summers with high maximum temperatures - 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994 and 1995]. Even so, each of the summers from 2010-2012 and 2016 surpassed those levels [and 2024 seems poised to do so as well]. Sources: climo_rpt_96_2.pdf (colostate.edu) - Study of 79 first-order climate sites between 1994 & 1995 found an average annual max temperature bias of +1.16F, and an average annual low temperature bias of +0.95F from the HO-83 relative to the ASOS installation. Comparison of ASOS and HO-83 temperatures at Lincoln, Nebraska from November 1991 through October 1992 (noaa.gov) - 12-month study from Lincoln, Nebraska study 1991-92. ASOS was from 1.4 to 2.6F cooler for maximum temperatures every month, and from 0.7 to 2.5F cooler for minimum temperatures. An Investigation of Temperature Discontinuities Introduced by the Installation of the HO-83 Thermometer in: Journal of Climate Volume 8 Issue 5 (1995) (ametsoc.org) - Another study, somewhat smaller estimate of 0.6C bias - actually suggests less bias in summer, but not sure that is correct. Ironically, I learned about this decades ago from climate change deniers. At that time, they were blaming climate change (in part) on this faulty sensor. Obviously, a ridiculous argument since U.S. first order airport sites make up a very small fraction of the USHCN sites, and almost zero percent of the global climate stations [the majority of which is water, after all]. But I correctly guessed it would turn to pointing to these same years as being evidence it wasn't warming as much as they said. The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit - cites some more sources, particularly about Tuscon and how the NWS could not confirm a global warming signal in the deadly Chicago heat wave of 1995 because the readings were likely inflated by instrument bias

Surprisingly made it up to 91F at Butler Regional (BTP) today [a typically cooler part of the metro area], where there's been significantly more sun and the lower dewpoints held off. Only 85 at KPIT, with some scattered showers starting to move into the region.

92/51, as of 4 pm. One thing you had pointed out, all of the 90+ readings this year have been 91F or better. Historically, a disproportionate number of 90+ days have topped out at exactly 90F. It makes a pretty substantial difference if you rank years by days with a high temperature greater than 90F [i.e., 91F or higher]. By that metric, only 9 years in the threaded record had more days strictly above 90F. And only 3 years since 1894 (1988, 20; 1966, 18; and 1952, 17). 2012, 1933 and 1901 also had 15 such days by July 28.

Additionally, today was the 67th day at or above 80F. That matches 1934 for the second most 80+ readings by this point in the calendar year. Only 1991 had more, with 74 such days.

Another 90+ reading at PIT... 15th on the year. Technically, 20th most in the threaded record; however, most of those are from the 19th century and suspect. Since 1901, only 8 years have seen more days of 90+ at this point in the summer: 1988, 23 1966, 23 1952, 20 1934, 20 2012, 18 1936, 17 1933, 16 1911, 16

Very nice couplet on radar.

Interesting fire behavior from the Park Fire in California, with a fire tornado spawned by pyroCb.

Based on current trends, it appears likely that DCA will see some months reach mean temperature levels never observed outside of Death Valley prior to the 21st century by the end of this century.

Perhaps more impressive, the current monthly mean temperature of 84.5F would tie for 16th warmest July in the ENTIRE period of record at Miami. Higher July mean temperatures were never observed prior to 1981, and only 4 times prior to 2005 [1981, 1983, 1992 (Pinatubo be damned) and 1998]. The highest pre-1980 mean was 84.0F, set in 1969.

Yeah, 110F with 15-20% humidity, a 20-mph breeze, and a thick pall of acrid smoke greatly dimming the sun/solar radiation probably would not feel that bad tbh.

Saw this on my X feed. Had to share here.

At Miami, the mean of 81.9F would tie for 19th warmest of the 89 years of record in the interval from 1896 to 1986 [inclusive]. So, yeah, even Miami is not a good comparison. Temperatures for the summer to date in DC in 2024 would be well above the median 20th century value for Miami for the period ending July 24. Prior to the very end of the 20th century, heat similar to that experienced in DC would only be expected in Miami a little more than twice a decade.

While still well above the median 18th & 19th century summer to date values for Orlando, Florida... a much more pedestrian ranking. This summer would tie for 37th warmest on record between 1892 & 1997.