TheClimateChanger

I don't agree with you all that often, but this is very true. Ratio moving rapidly in the direction one would expect. Although I must note that the chart itself is also "rigged" in a few ways to produce an incomplete picture. I'm assuming, of course, it's accurate. Who knows about station selection, have to assume all stations meeting the criteria were selected. (1) Martz only posts the first time a record was set and ignores later ties. This, of course, produces a bias for both record highs and lows towards the early years - which we can plainly see. The dropoff in highs (and, to an extent, lows) would not be as dramatic otherwise. (2) The data is unadjusted. Most of the GHCN stations switched from afternoon/evening observation times (5/6 pm) to morning observation times (~7 am), which is the time in which the instruments would have been manually reset. While maybe not a huge factor, this favors occasional "double" counting of record highs up through the mid 20th century and occasional "double" counting of record lows thereafter. (3) Unclear what direction this bias goes. But it should be noted that a more complete picture would be rendered by indicating the percentage of total data available for each year. The criteria was for stations that reported at least 85% data for 100 years - but where is the missing data. If there is station dropoff towards the end, then that also contributes to the general "softening" of the records. Like I said, this information wasn't presented so I can't so for sure what effect, if any, this has. But I can say for certain that presenting that data would be helpful for presentation. Regardless of the rigging, the data is fully consistent with a warming climate - record highs are clearly outpacing record lows. The apparent loss of extremes in both directions from the earlier decades is largely (maybe not entirely, but significantly) affected by the convention to list only the first occurrence of a record high or low. That choice necessarily will produce a dynamic where earlier decades show more record-breaking temperatures than later decades.

Most anomalously warm months for the CONUS, per UAH lower tropospheric data [expressed as deviation from 1991-2020 mean] (1) March 2012: 2.24°C (2) December 2025: 2.10°C (3) February 2017: 2.06°C (4) April 1981: 1.97°C (5) October 2024: 1.89°C (6) November 1999: 1.87°C (7) November 2016: 1.84°C (8) December 2021: 1.81°C (9) May 2018: 1.75°C (10) March 2007: 1.57°C

UAH satellite temperature record confirms incredible lower tropospheric US warmth in December 2025. (1) CONUS average a whopping +2.10°C above the 1991-2020 mean, which was the SECOND warmest of any month on record (since December 1978). Only March 2012's +2.24°C was warmer. That month is sometimes referred to as "Morch" of 2012, as a portmanteau of March and torch. (2) CONUS + Alaska average checked in at an incredible +1.77°C. This was also the second highest value of record, being narrowly edged by the incredible torch of February 2017 ("Torchuary") which came in at +1.80°C. This one is even more incredible given the noteworthy cold in parts of Alaska. Source: nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.1/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.1.txt

I just figured I'd take a look and see what it shows for Pittsburgh, after seeing Clay Travis's post on X/Twitter saying it was showing 15-18" for Nashville on Saturday.

Just took a peek at the iPhone app, and it says 9-11" on Sunday for Pittsburgh? Anyone seeing this?

CPC nails it again.

Eyeballing, but it looks like close to an inch of snow last night. Didn’t realize it was supposed to snow.

Hat tip to user @PhiEaglesfan712 for noting this over in the ENSO thread. This proves definitively that this has been, by far, the worst decade ever to be a Mid Atlantic snow weenie.

As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the Snowmageddon of 2016, the 10-year moving sum of snowfall is set to absolutely plummet to levels never seen before. Effective January 23, 2026 (covering January 24, 2016 to January 23, 2016), the moving 10-year total snowfall observed at Washington, DC and Baltimore, MD is set to plummet to 75.6" and 95.3" respectively. This will obliterate the prior records of 92.8" and 123.1" respectively, which occurred from the last year on all dates between the last snowfall in February and the first snowfall in December.

I think the most surprising thing is even with that 30" + storm on the books, they've been straddling the record low 10-year snow. That's why once it drops off, it doesn't just a set a new record low - it absolutely obliterates the prior record.

I suppose the Baltimore tally which is set to obliterate the record by nearly 30" is probably even more unbreakable. Really bad time to be a Mid-Atlantic snow weenie - that's for sure!

I confirmed manually that no additional snows fell in January 2016 after snowmaggedon at any of the sites, so these values would be the rolling 10-year sum [even on a daily resolution] effective January 23, 2026 (covering January 24, 2016 to January 23, 2026). A rolling 10-year sum of 75.6" [equivalent to an average of just 7.56" each 12 months] at DC, assuming no measurable snow through Friday, seems like it would be difficult to ever break. Maybe an unbreakable record?

And at Philadelphia. The record sorted by month end is 144.1" from March 1, 1922 to February 29, 1932. Last year saw the second lowest at 146.1 inches. Looks like 15.6" is needed to avoid the moving 120-month total record low. Not sure about 10-year daily moving totals - probably similar to these. Almost certainly, the prior record belongs to one of these periods, but might be a little bit lower than these totals, since it's on a daily metric (and this analysis is limited to discrete days - end of each month).

For Baltimore, the rolling 120-month total is currently at 95.3" (February 1, 2016 to January 18, 2026). The record is 123.1" for every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. Baltimore would need nearly 30" of snow the rest of the month to avoid a new record.

xMacis can sort by years, months or days, but that many days overwhelms it. When sorting by month or year, it defaults to the last day of each month or calendar year, so daily resolution is not available. With that said, if no more snow falls this month, the 120-month rolling total (February 1, 2016 to January 18, 2026) would be at 75.6" at DC if no additional snows fell this month. The current record is 92.8" ending every month from March 31, 2025 to November 30, 2025. DC would need 17.2" to avoid a new record by month end rolling. Probably the same for the daily unless some additional snows fell in 2016 between the snowmaggedon and the end of the month.

Averages start climbing again in a few days. Interestingly, under the old 1981-2010 normals, highs started climbing today (35.4F on the 17th, to 35.5F on the 18th).

Snowing at a good clip in my backyard. Sticking quickly.

It's been a great winter for Central Ohio. Since 2014, only 2018 saw more to date at Columbus!

Heavier "squall-like" snow showers possible tomorrow on top of the light snowfall tonight.

Thank you for the comment. The official values for Chester County show more warming over that period. It looks like your numbers start near the NOAA values and then drift lower over time. Not sure how you are correcting for changing station basket or is this only comparing one or two sites.

Shows up really well on the rankings too, with almost every station out there seeing its warmest winter to date.

This has been a very favorable pattern for the eastern U.S. overall since December 1. You can see departures in the intermountain west as high as +16F to +18F for the winter season to date. Really can't complain about this look. Could be a LOT worse.

Views like that, and snow like the above... count me in!

Two days after making us ground zero for the fantasy snow blitz, the GFS has decided to make us the screw zone of all screw zones. To be clear, 8" over 16 days isn't horrible, but it would be pretty awful if everybody else in the northeastern US got 2 feet +.

Both of these pale in comparison to South Bend, which saw 12.6" yesterday - the most in nearly 11 years (February 1, 2015; 14.7 inches). To put the amount of snow that fell in South Bend in perspective, Detroit has only observed two days with more snow than that since 1908 (18.4" on 12/1/1974 & 13.7" on 2/1/2015).