TheClimateChanger

Classic spring weather in Pittsburgh. Look at these ups & downs. Taken literally, the GFS has Monday 41F warmer than Tuesday - though I don't think this is properly accounting for midnight highs & lows (non-diurnal temperature ranges).

Thanks, Don. I agree there's a UHI component as well, but it's not impacting the trends. Whereas Phoenix has warmed at about .6F/decade since 1896, NCEI has the State of Arizona warming at about a third of that rate (0.2F/decade), so it's not like they are just using Phoenix numbers to calculate the official trends and departures. By the way, Death Valley - with a population of, checks notes, zero - has 4. But really 6, as the numbers for November & December in 1913 & 1914 are clearly erroneous. The huge surpluses were driven by implausibly high temperatures with impossibly small diurnal ranges that make zero sense in winter in Death Valley. Ignoring those months, it's 6 of 12.

Some food for thought:

Some good news. Hopefully, with lake ice coverage well below historical averages, we'll see somewhat less of a lake influence on spring temperatures this year. *Fingers crossed*

Asterisk because I think the snowfall total was a little inflated, but still very impressive.

Do you know when the last day was where the US as a whole was below the 1991-2020 average? It seems like it's been weeks.

We did it!

Something to look out for as we head into the warm season. CONUS PDSI third lowest on record as of end of February!

Don, it's CLEARLY urban heat island effect. That's why the 10 warmest years at Death Valley (pop: 0) are 2022, 2021, 2025, 2018, 2017, 2024, 2020, 2014, 2012, and 2016. Note the handful of older years are all missing months, mostly in the cold part of the year. It's actually pretty wild that recent years are as warm as those years that have no data for one or more winter months.

Record highs set at Chicago & Rockford today.

Snowiest EVER! This undersells the departure since the 1981-2010 normal was 67.2.

If this is cold "winning" the battle, I'd hate to see the alternative.

What's the severe weather risk look like us tomorrow? I wasn't given it to much thought until I saw this storm in Michigan which has to be EF3+.

Tornado Warning MIC023-149-062130- /O.NEW.KIWX.TO.W.0003.260306T2103Z-260306T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Northern Indiana 403 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern St. Joseph County in southwestern Michigan... Northwestern Branch County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 430 PM EST. * At 403 PM EST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Centreville, or near Three Rivers, moving northeast at 40 mph. Reports of damage have been received in Three Rivers. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern St. Joseph and northwestern Branch Counties, including the following locations... Mendon, Leonidas, Fishers Lake, and Sherwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4201 8522 4193 8556 4200 8561 4207 8551 4207 8527 TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 240DEG 34KT 4199 8554 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ FISHER