TheClimateChanger

We've already had 2.5-3 inches?

Agreed. And I'd argue that 7 or 8 inches of heavy, wet sleet-laden snow has more sticking power than a foot of dry powder anyways.

Yes, I know it's very close to the airport. I just mentioned that to point out the fact that the NWS office report is the official observation.

I would say 8"+ is a lock for the official storm total, although double digits are probably unlikely unless a few random heavier squalls were to occur in northwest Allegheny County.

The snow map shows a report of 7" as of 7 am at the NWS office at 1 N CARNOT-MOON. I believe that's where the official snow records are observed, not at the airport. Given the continued light snow over the past two hours, would have to think they are up to 7.5" or so by now.

I’m about 10 miles from the airport and have 8.25” on the ground. Possibly some additional accumulation today

Just measured close to 4 inches at my house in Beaver County, with a mix of snow and sleet still falling. Messaged my friend in the Youngstown area and he said it's up to 6" on the ground there now, which is 4" more than when he measured two hours ago. So it must be snowing quite hard in some areas.

For what it's worth, it looks like Youngstown turned back to snow (at least at the airport). They picked up another inch in the past hour after the changeover (0.17" liquid), but even there it's only 4" on the ground so far. KYNG 170451Z 04004KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A2943 RMK AO2 FZRAE0359SNB0359PLB0359E15 PRESFR SLP979 SNINCR 1/4 P0017 I1000 T10281039 410061128 RVRNO $

The dry slot has pretty much entirely filled along the western border of Pennsylvania from Beaver, west Allegheny, and Washington Counties. But it's still sleet and freezing rain mix. That seems to be the bigger problem. It should be ripping snow from here on west. Yet, there's mixed precipitation extending all the way into northeast Ohio.

Yeah, dry slow was progressing slowly northward. But I noticed now some bands of precipitation racing northward and outpacing the dry slot. Still think we need thing this to pivot eastward stat if we want to get into these higher totals.

Sad to say the orientation of this just doesn't look optimal for Pittsburgh. Doesn't look like the heaviest bands will pivot in time for the big totals. NAM showing up to about 40" of snow now in Geauga County, Ohio.

One inch in the last hour at KYNG. Would expect to see some 2, maybe 3 inch per hour rates later tonight. KYNG 170151Z 08004KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV013 M06/M07 A2964 RMK AO2 SLP055 SNINCR 1/2 P0008 T10561072 RVRNO $

Won't that fill in? Something similar to this: I was in eastern Ohio for that storm. Was in the 50s at midnight the day before, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s late afternoon. Huge dry slot, then the deformation zone started to fill in and heavy snow bands pushed east and remained in place for 12 hours. Picked up 11 inches overnight. Even PIT recorded 4.3 inches of snow on the southeast edge of the band. Erie had just shy of 15 inches officially, but some areas in Erie and Crawford Counties picked up 2-3 feet of snow. And that was in April, to boot.

Rates seem pretty decent to me, especially given all the antecedent dry air (dew points near zero). Started snowing shortly after 4, and ground is covered. Probably 3/4 of an inch. Seems pretty good for less than two hours in to a long duration event

Dynamic cooling dropping the entire column below freezing given the high precipitation rates?

I don't think we have to worry about that. This initial batch is just bonus snow, and it could be substantial no doubt. But the real show we'll be that deformation band or bands north and west of Pittsburgh overnight. And that should be all snow, might even get somewhat higher ratios in the mix as the night wears on. I think the deformation band alone could bring up to a foot of snow or more to some spots. I would expect some storm totals in excess of 20" are possible, especially in NW PA.

This storm: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2013/02/17/april-2-3-2005-northern-ohio-snowstorm/ This summary is focused on Ohio, which saw up to 22 inches in Ashtabula County, but the highest totals were in Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties in New York, where 2-3 feet totals were fairly common. Erie Airport officially tallied only 14.8" but the highest totals were inland away from the lake.

You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm.

Seventh least snowy start to the winter (through 1/4). A lot of missing data is noted for several years - probably just days where no snow was observed, and the entry left blank by the observer. But if there's any real missing data in those years, the snowfall could be higher than shown. I suspect if the records were still kept downtown, it would be even worse than shown.

Snowfall has certainly been paltry so far, particularly in the snow belt. For Cleveland, this has been the eighth least snowiest start to the winter season. And at Erie, the 7th least snowy start and the least snowiest since 1944. Some missing data is noted for Erie in 1924 and 1944. I think that's probably just days where no snow was observed but the observer left the entry blank, but if it's true missing data, then those years might have been snowier than represented in this list. Cleveland Erie

2021 was an impressive year for northern Ohio weatherwise. New annual heat records set or tied in 4 of CLE's 6 first order stations (Toledo, Mansfield, Akron/Canton, and Erie PA). Officially, 6th warmest at Cleveland and Youngstown, although both of those are somewhat questionable. There was a period in the mid 2010s when CLE's readings were clearly a degree or so too warm and the current records are from 2017 and 2016. The last couple of years, the readings appear about a half degree too cool relative to the other stations. In the case of YNG, records at the current airport location began in October 1943, prior to that the threaded station includes records dating to 1930 from the city, as well as a couple years in the late 1800s. The older records are from the city (about 350' lower in elevation, 10 miles further south, and urbanized), so there's probably about a 2-2.5 degree bias from those 1930s readings, which would put the readings in line with neighboring sites. Unfortunately, the 1930s were also a relatively warm period so with the station bias dominate the warm weather records. 2021 did tie 2012 for warmest since records began at the current site. Toledo Mansfield Akron/Canton Erie, PA Cleveland Youngstown

Some locations are near record high annual mean temperatures through yesterday. Will be interesting to see whether the upcoming warmth will be enough for first place on these lists. Buffalo Erie Syracuse Oddly enough, Rochester quite a bit lower than the other closest regional airport sites for both this year and last. Still quite warm, but not close to the top (2020 is 12th). It appears to be a new disconnect as several recent years show up warmer (2006, 2016, 2017, and 2012 at #1). Rochester

Also, the second warmest year to date in Chicago. Might as well root for a mild end to the year to unseat 2012.

Scorching start to meterological fall at Chicago. Over a degree warmer than the second warmest period on record.

Very warm start to meteorological fall in northern Ohio. 5th warmest at Cleveland, warmest on record at Toledo, Mansfield, and Akron/Canton, and 4th warmest on record at Youngstown. Many recent years show up on the top 10/11 locally - with 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 showing similarly warm starts to autumn. In fact, at Cleveland, 5 of the top 6 warmest periods have occurred in the last 6 years, which makes it more difficult keep tabs on what is normal. Cleveland Toledo Mansfield Akron/Canton Youngstown