jwilson

Injuries and rust aside, I think the Eagles are comfortable playing a safe and conservative, if not boring, style of offense. Limit mistake opportunities and lean on the defense to win games. It will work as long as they play from ahead. If they get behind, they'll be forced to open things up more, but for now I think they accept winning over style.

I guess I'm less enthused about the pattern because it looks like a general continuation of the theme, which is cold and dry here. I can understand areas our south being more excited, especially since they rely more on the cold push we're getting to see snow. Being a bit more north, we don't necessarily need as intense of a cold air intrusion. If the boundary stays to our south, then so does the snow, as it were. Maybe developing this intense of a -EPO in an El Nino winter would generate that level of intrigue. Perhaps I'm also missing something as even the ensembles don't have some fantastic long-range look to my eyes, but again, maybe there's something I'm overlooking.

This is definitely a more classic Pittsburgh winter, with many small northern-stream events flowing through the CONUS. This isn't a big storm pattern right now - too much interference. We generally want these things on our side: -EPO, -NAO, -AO, 50/50 North Atlantic low, but right now there's too much of each. The -NAO is too far south. The -EPO is way too strong and influential on the downstream flow. The giant North Atlantic trough is shunting potential development. It's a good pattern, in theory, but in practice we just have too much confluence and not enough southern influence. If something like this setup in a moderate El Nino base state, I could see the potential.

Northern stream behaving like a La Nina and no real ideal blocking positions, between a stout -NAO that's likely bleeding a bit too far south and a giant North Atlantic trough. Looks like this pattern abates around the 19th in time for a big cutter to recycle the flow. We don't really want a repeat of this pattern, though. GFS kills off the -NAO at range, but the Euro doesn't, and right now the GFS lacks credibility. Potentially could lose the -AO, as well. I actually think that massive -EPO is hurting way more than helping. It's creating a cliff-like ridge in the west and we aren't seeing a proper or ideal +PNA ridge orientation. Have to hope the latter half of January creates something more conducive to snow above 40N.

This is why I didn't shovel yet. Won't add much, but a nice bonus considering the first round was unspectacular.

Models certainly "hinting" at things for next weekend. Be interesting to see how it evolves in this pattern.

Nice snow globe effect for as long as it lasts. Sticking pretty much everywhere.

Ignoring all the jumps, I think the original, consistent Euro solutions are probably closest to correct in terms of geography. There's likely a question on back-end snows, but those aren't hugely relevant for Pittsburgh, anyway. Because the gradient is so tight, however, this will almost certainly become a nowcasting event to see where the best FGEN sets up. Either side you get divergence and limited snow growth.

This storm is a nuisance but not in the way you meant it. Being snow starved and this is what we're left to track? How annoying.

GFS is a 24-hour event. Icon is close to that, as well. But the Canadian being less amped than the GFS gives me pause. It's probably overcooked. The Euro has been much more consistent than any other. Not to say it's right, but at this stage I think it gets the most respect. I'll be quite shocked if it follows the GFS.

Sorry, I only meant in regards to the tight gradients. I was picking up half of the official Philly measurements in Dec. 2009 and the first February storm only 17 miles away as the crow flies. I've been longing for a large-scale overrunning event ever since. Even in 2016 there was another tight gradient in my area (wasn't in Philly for that storm).

Icon looks a lot like the 0Z Canadian, but it's also much faster - which I think isn't congruous if we're talking about blocking into confluence up north. Those two models have a more detached look in the northern stream with a vort centered over central Quebec instead of near Montreal as on the Euro and GFS. The 12Z GFS just rolled out, though, and came a bit more north. It's actually chasing the Icon a tad in wanting to do more secondary development off the coast in Miller B fashion. At the surface, the central of the SLP hadn't moved much but you can see at the 500 level how the main vort of influence is further north than at 6Z, which allows our main system to expand a bit more. That said, the vort in Quebec was also stronger which is cutting the precip shield off right around the Mason-Dixon line. Philly only improves from 2.4 to 3.9 inches. An increase, but if you're rooting for a northern outcome it's still a tad lacking. The 12Z Canadian is also a tiny bit north but not too different from its 0Z run. Slightly more amped and sharper trough look from our main s/w. Question is whether this is another northern fringe run or some sort of trend towards a north jog across all models. Edit - Should add that being on the northern edge might lend to better ratios for the area, but a lot depends on where the frontogenesis sets up, and the confluence itself is going to create a tight gradient of winners and losers. Snow growth can get shunted along that line. Reminiscent of those 2010 storms that were blocked but limited snow depth to the north.

Those off-hour Euro runs are looking like the off-hour GFS runs of old. Almost like the model was experimenting with odd-ball solutions for fun. Still can't buy into a solution because of the waffling, and the GFS becomes the northern-most model. Less than ideal, perhaps.

You're never comfortable being in the bullseye five days out, but the Euro has been pretty consistent. Other operationals keep jumping, including that massive shift from the Ukie. What a goof. Maybe a north trend still occurs as projected confluence weakens. I think the best chance here is probably after, though.

GFS is helter skelter right now. Euro looks more consistent, but the typical Miller B evolution is shunted by that North Atlantic cyclone. Ease on that confluence.

Euro and UK ensembles spitting out around a 5" average for Monday in AGH, but I haven't looked at the individual members to see if those are skewed by a few high members or if there's a measure of similarity. The operational models trend pretty well. Euro has been more consistent than the GFS, and the former has scored higher in verification lately. GFS might be struggling in this pattern. GFS wants to basically squash the Monday event because of the massive 50/50 and its confluence. If that could move East a bit quicker or develop weaker, it lends to a higher ceiling. Too much in that direction, though, and you eventually lose CAD (cold air damming) and bring in the warm tongue potential. This isn't a true southern slider. It's pushing into the TN valley. GFS takes the weakened low over Morgantown. Euro over Charleston. In a normal evolution this is your typical Miller B or hybrid.

Probability favors less than 30" on the season. We've had a fair start for December purposes. Below the 30-year average of 7.8" in the month, but the best December of the last four. Seems we've paid a bit for that epic 2020 December. That said, if you add up the last five Decembers, we still average around that 7" mark. Quote: "That's how averages work!" lol. The good news in the long-term is, at least for now, we're not seeing a true blow torch pattern. Odds are it shows up eventually, but we at least have cold coming in-and-out. We'll moderate between Christmas and New Years, then afterwards another -EPO reinforcement sets up more cold air in the contiguous U.S. Most of the teleconnections look favorable around early January, too. MJO going into Phase 7, potentially. -NAO and -AO. Ridging out west and a trough setup over the East. About all you can ask for in any given pattern. We'll work out the discrete threats down the road.

Nice dinner-plate flakes under this area of convergence. Not sticking to the concrete, but nice to behold while it falls. If only we could get this for hours on end.

Doesn't look like much right now for AGH. Very similar to the setup last week with the lake effect machine cranking back up. GFS is the most robust, but even as depicted, it's still warm at the surface when the "snow" begins. Early guess is another 0-2" event for Western PA areas minus the ridges and Erie.

Looks like we'll have a cold source for the first week of December, at least. Not sure about discrete threats. One around Thanksgiving is the most obvious. This early in the season could be more about lake effect as opposed to synoptic snows, however, and it might be a "cold and dry" environment after that one. I'm skeptical the cold lasts any longer than that - rest of December is more likely to be normal or above, IMHO. But in the long range that can always change, of course.

I believe it was 2010 when we had a rather warm November, and then as soon as December hit, it felt like winter had arrived. I don't know if we're in store for a repeat of that pattern, which ended up being a strong La Nina episode following an El Nino. Right now we're in a very mild negative period which is technically neutral (-0.2), but a La Nina of the weaker type is slightly favored. This could end up being a net-neutral winter, however. Looking back for any kind of correlation, I found 10 net neutral winters since 1990. The average snowfall over those neutral periods was 44.8, which is slightly above our 30-year average. Half of the ten were below 30" of snow while the other half were above 50" of snow. Kind of an interesting dynamic there. Three were above 60" (1993, 1994, and 2014). Of those neutrals, only three followed an El Nino. Two of those three were 1993 and 2004, with 72.1" and 54.2" of snow, respectively. The third was 2020 with 22.4" of snow. If it ends up being a true weak La Nina, well, the snowfall history isn't quite as favorable, but it is a smaller sample size, too. We've only had five La Ninas that finished above a -1.0 threshold. None of those five involved snowfall higher than our 30-year average, and only one was right around the number (2009 with 41" of snow total). The three were in the 30s, which wouldn't be bad given our recent history, but the last was 2023 and that was a paltry year for snow, still fresh in our minds (17.6"). To be clear, I don't know if this means anything, but it's interesting to check the data and try to include that history into a prediction for the winter. We fully expect a warm winter, in general, so predicting under the average is probably a safer bet, regardless.

There was a funnel report in Venango county yesterday, but no idea if it ever condensated to the ground. The velocity couplet on radar was pretty distinct. If nothing touched down, I'd be kind of shocked. It was long-lived, too. We had a transformer blow a few blocks away. Lightning strike, not a lot of wind. Lost power for a minute or two.

Things appear to be trending eastward, so it's looking like an inch might be the high-end for Allegheny county. Probably best to avoid flooding concerns.

In the South Hills, we're the "victims" of another stabilizing outflow boundary. I've seen this with some regularity. It cools and flattens the air, and we end up with a tiny bit of wind but no storms. Collapses any inflow possibility. I guess we'll see if the line coming through later can reignite the atmosphere. Sorry for those of you north of the city that always seem to deal with these.

Certainly clashes with their hot August prediction. Would have to mean the latter half of the month is much warmer.