jwilson

Relative to the last two winters, this one could definitely be considered a win. However, in the grand scheme of things, this winter is still relatively uninteresting. If we don't see another moderately-sized storm, I'd consider it a sub-average winter (C-).

I measured about 3.1" - which is technically a bust on the revised forecast, but the first NWS forecast was a winner. Those last minute short-range revisions were fool's gold, in hindsight. That all fell in about 3-4 hours, too. From onset of snow around 11 AM to say 4 PM, we only had maybe 0.5" of accumulation here.

Well, Eagles shaved another five years off my life.

They've really mismanaged this game. So many little mistakes adding up, too.

This defense plays so well for 55 minutes and then goes to sleep at the end of games.

Now is when you show your grit!

No tuddy. Need a shove.

I think Hurts tried to throw it and it slipped out. Dumb play call.

Finally under one those good bands. Nice to see a dash of snow puke.

This will be a good storm for the scrapbook. Mixed bag based heavily on locality.

Snow but the growth here isn't great. I don't think we hit 4" in the end.

I'm in Philly temporarily, so observing from here for now. Was hoping to get a big coastal while out here since I haven't enjoyed one since 2010. For now I just hope we can fill in this dryslot and not cut our totals too much. Speed and placement of meso features makes things iffy.

Up to a light dusting on grass and sidewalks as the last of the snow (for a little while) pulls through.

Looks like we could get dry-slotted down here for a while until the coastal takes over eventually. Still no real accumulation. As is typical, upper Montco getting the better bands right now.

First plow sighting. Steady snow now. Surface temps remain a little too warm for accretion.

Flakes now falling in Hatboro. Nothing too exciting but limited virga.

Interesting to see the Mesos kick back east a little bit. Clearly struggling to nail down the most intense convective features. Certainly will be a nowcasting event. Someone will see those dinner plates flying for at least a little while.

"Always the bridesmaid" feeling with those Advisories, but I think they are keen to play this conservative and let it go over those amounts rather than over-predict and under-deliver.

Jackpot stripe seems to be lining up on all the models at this point, matching up with best 700H frontogenesis during the initial thump. Lancaster - Reading - Allentown or points just east of there. Hopefully for parts further east, we get a bit of a convective finish as the low intensifies off the coast, and that banding slides east-northeast. Those mesoscale features determine our max potential.

We're certainly not going to get a long-lead storm chase in this pattern. Way too much movement. If we're lucky we can build general consensus under 60 hours. I think we're getting close for Sunday, so maybe by tomorrow night we have something we can feel confident about projecting.

Injuries and rust aside, I think the Eagles are comfortable playing a safe and conservative, if not boring, style of offense. Limit mistake opportunities and lean on the defense to win games. It will work as long as they play from ahead. If they get behind, they'll be forced to open things up more, but for now I think they accept winning over style.

I guess I'm less enthused about the pattern because it looks like a general continuation of the theme, which is cold and dry here. I can understand areas our south being more excited, especially since they rely more on the cold push we're getting to see snow. Being a bit more north, we don't necessarily need as intense of a cold air intrusion. If the boundary stays to our south, then so does the snow, as it were. Maybe developing this intense of a -EPO in an El Nino winter would generate that level of intrigue. Perhaps I'm also missing something as even the ensembles don't have some fantastic long-range look to my eyes, but again, maybe there's something I'm overlooking.

This is definitely a more classic Pittsburgh winter, with many small northern-stream events flowing through the CONUS. This isn't a big storm pattern right now - too much interference. We generally want these things on our side: -EPO, -NAO, -AO, 50/50 North Atlantic low, but right now there's too much of each. The -NAO is too far south. The -EPO is way too strong and influential on the downstream flow. The giant North Atlantic trough is shunting potential development. It's a good pattern, in theory, but in practice we just have too much confluence and not enough southern influence. If something like this setup in a moderate El Nino base state, I could see the potential.

Northern stream behaving like a La Nina and no real ideal blocking positions, between a stout -NAO that's likely bleeding a bit too far south and a giant North Atlantic trough. Looks like this pattern abates around the 19th in time for a big cutter to recycle the flow. We don't really want a repeat of this pattern, though. GFS kills off the -NAO at range, but the Euro doesn't, and right now the GFS lacks credibility. Potentially could lose the -AO, as well. I actually think that massive -EPO is hurting way more than helping. It's creating a cliff-like ridge in the west and we aren't seeing a proper or ideal +PNA ridge orientation. Have to hope the latter half of January creates something more conducive to snow above 40N.

This is why I didn't shovel yet. Won't add much, but a nice bonus considering the first round was unspectacular.