jwilson

I think it still looks promising on the ensembles. -AO and -NAO with a potential 50/50 locked in and the cold underneath. Nice building western ridge on the EPS, less so on GEFS. The setup hasn't changed much, I don't think. Clearly OP model runs aren't trustworthy even to mid-range lead times. Next week is volatile. Hopefully we don't go dry again in the good base, but I guess that's the risk in a Nina.

Canadian has a more interesting evolution out here for next week. The GFS isn't much, but the GFS has been bad this winter so I've generally ignored it until 3-day leads. The Euro isn't as amped as either and is probably closer to a real solution, but it's not as cold as the Canadian on the second round so PIT gets warm-tongued. We'll see what the Euro does at 12Z. At 6Z it was clearly going to favor the second round like the Canadian, so snow from the first round was relatively minimal.

GFS and CMC evolutions are a good bit different. GFS wants a bigger first wave and then sort of staggers the second round into two pieces, one of which is mostly a southern rain. 5-10" of snow and then a minor mixed-to-rain event of sorts. Canadian says the second event is more amped and is mostly rain. Probably a 3-6" snow event washed away. I'll be curious to see what the Euro does at 12Z. At 0Z it was less amped on both events, unsurprisingly.

I feel like late February is kind of a winter storm "no man's land" for the area and much of PA. When was the last time there was a late February snow of significance? 1987? Things get more dicey mid-March as spring ushers in unusual and fluctuating weather patterns, but I feel like late Feb is often quiet. Maybe the data doesn't back that up and I'm wrong, though.

The snowfall maps for the GFS are cracked out because they are showing a lot of sleet accumulation. Conditions for a couple of those events don't support a moderate snowfall solution. In other words, they can't really be trusted right now. The longer term pattern looks more interesting, but there's a chance of an all-snow event next week prior to or around Valentine's Day. The GFS has several discrete events over a few days, but I think that might consolidate down into two - mid-week and then a weekend something. The Euro is keying more around the 12th/13th and then there's less consensus for a weekend event.

Relative to the last two winters, this one could definitely be considered a win. However, in the grand scheme of things, this winter is still relatively uninteresting. If we don't see another moderately-sized storm, I'd consider it a sub-average winter (C-).

I measured about 3.1" - which is technically a bust on the revised forecast, but the first NWS forecast was a winner. Those last minute short-range revisions were fool's gold, in hindsight. That all fell in about 3-4 hours, too. From onset of snow around 11 AM to say 4 PM, we only had maybe 0.5" of accumulation here.

Well, Eagles shaved another five years off my life.

They've really mismanaged this game. So many little mistakes adding up, too.

This defense plays so well for 55 minutes and then goes to sleep at the end of games.

Now is when you show your grit!

No tuddy. Need a shove.

I think Hurts tried to throw it and it slipped out. Dumb play call.

Finally under one those good bands. Nice to see a dash of snow puke.

This will be a good storm for the scrapbook. Mixed bag based heavily on locality.

Snow but the growth here isn't great. I don't think we hit 4" in the end.

I'm in Philly temporarily, so observing from here for now. Was hoping to get a big coastal while out here since I haven't enjoyed one since 2010. For now I just hope we can fill in this dryslot and not cut our totals too much. Speed and placement of meso features makes things iffy.

Up to a light dusting on grass and sidewalks as the last of the snow (for a little while) pulls through.

Looks like we could get dry-slotted down here for a while until the coastal takes over eventually. Still no real accumulation. As is typical, upper Montco getting the better bands right now.

First plow sighting. Steady snow now. Surface temps remain a little too warm for accretion.

Flakes now falling in Hatboro. Nothing too exciting but limited virga.

Interesting to see the Mesos kick back east a little bit. Clearly struggling to nail down the most intense convective features. Certainly will be a nowcasting event. Someone will see those dinner plates flying for at least a little while.

"Always the bridesmaid" feeling with those Advisories, but I think they are keen to play this conservative and let it go over those amounts rather than over-predict and under-deliver.

Jackpot stripe seems to be lining up on all the models at this point, matching up with best 700H frontogenesis during the initial thump. Lancaster - Reading - Allentown or points just east of there. Hopefully for parts further east, we get a bit of a convective finish as the low intensifies off the coast, and that banding slides east-northeast. Those mesoscale features determine our max potential.

We're certainly not going to get a long-lead storm chase in this pattern. Way too much movement. If we're lucky we can build general consensus under 60 hours. I think we're getting close for Sunday, so maybe by tomorrow night we have something we can feel confident about projecting.