jwilson

Most of the forecasts I've seen are calling for snow in the middle and peak of winter, but the book-ends may be mild and undesirable for snow lovers. If January comes and goes and we're still below average, only then will I get uncomfortable. For now the lack of snow is merely mild disappointment.

Just what we want and expect to see on December 1st. Severe thunderstorms. Oh, we're not in the southern hemisphere?

I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did. I'll expect nothing. Last 30 years in November: 13.9" most (1995-96) Trace least (9 different years) 2.3" average In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received. To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing. 13/30 or 43% of the time. Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November. Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total. Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.

High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts. GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so. Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh. Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste. As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.

FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16. I think it is possible we can beat that date this year. Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.

Well, at this time of year, probably not much (super low ratios). 5-10" maybe? If we can get this into some cold in January, perhaps a nice foot or two.

THE WARM TONGUE DOES NOT ABATE! Seriously though, we had a fairly prolonged period of -NAO through this year (spring/summer). Hopefully that holds into the winter. Seems like it has been a while since we've seen the same during the cold seasons. It would really help our chances.

I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight). Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th. There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.

Remember when September used to be a cool month? I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter). Looks like the heat will continue into October again.

I was planning on hitting the links Friday or Saturday.. maybe not such a good idea now? I have played in the heat before, it's just miserable. And no alcohol, of course.

Here's a couple images from last night that I captured on that final severe storm of the evening. This was on the very southern edge of the cell. First is the possible wall cloud. This isn't the best it looked, but it's the only real view on tape I managed to grab of it (this is actually a still from a video). It looked a bit more defined as it approached. There was a clear inflow band, as well (extending off to the right of this image). Unfortunately, I didn't end up attempting to get any more pictures or videos of it for some dumb reason. Here is a quick GIF of some lightning I captured. It got pretty intense. Evidently there was hail with this storm further to the north, but the core of the storm missed me. (If image isn't working, click here.)

Just caught the southern tip of that severe storm. No hail, impressive light show, looked like a wall cloud as it moved in (hard to make out at night for certain but thanks light pollution). Some nice video, as well, but my phone is almost dead so I'll see what's worth revisiting tomorrow.

If today busts for the southern regions, the enhanced risk area shifts south for tomorrow, but it might end up putting the city locales on the northern fringe instead of the southern. Could still be a miss. There will be a final chance region-wide on Thursday. The probabilities look lower in severe terms, however, at least for now.

Couple more chances for severe upcoming, but thus far this year there hasn't been much locally. I think June is our peak season, though.

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long. Some people just need perspective, really. There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here. I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

This just about sums it up for us. Welcome to the Screw Zone™ for all time.

The more these rain storms occur, the more I think this just isn't our winter. It was 0F last night and is close to 50F today. The atmosphere wants to rain here and that's it, as evidenced by our wettest year on record. This is a harsh pattern we've been set in since mid-2018 probably. If we're lucky, we'll dry out just in time for next winter.

We're well below normal so far (if we finish that way, it would make 3 of the last 4 winters). I agree that expectations for this winter were high. Things looked to align, but at this point, we're going to need a backloaded winter. The blocking that I think we require continues to be two weeks away in the long-term. Maybe by February it will actually coalesce. I'm hoping we don't revert to a bad pacific pattern or lose our moisture conveyor if the blocking comes together, but that's always possible.

Always a bridesmaid ...

I don't mind transient warmth in winter so much, say a day or two in between pattern flexes. I'm not a huge fan, however, of two to three weeks of the doldrums. Maybe we have once chance as the "new" pattern shuffles, but it doesn't look all that promising right now.

At least as I understand it, the TD can't count until you've become a runner, and you can't become a runner until you complete the process of the catch. If you're going to the ground as you catch the ball, you need to control the ball through the ground (no ground-assisted movement) or you can't complete the process of the catch, and in turn you can't become a runner. The rule is extremely convoluted, but it isn't the first time someone has been screwed by it. If the rule is called consistently, that's probably all you can ask for. My issue is whether they could truly overturn the call on the field. Replay evidence has to be 100%, zero doubt, conclusive. I think it's close, but that's not zero doubt. This is from an objective POV, by the way, as I'm not really a Steelers fan (sorry folks).

I need to move to Mammoth Lakes, CA. They're looking at another 3-6 feet of snow after getting something like 10 feet last week. Wouldn't have to kill myself model watching all the time when you seasonally get what we average locally over a decade or more.

So does that 4/5 day bullseye "jinx" continue? Didn't we have 2-3' a couple days ago, and now we are getting threatened by possible cloudy skies? Let's hope we can bounce back from this and have a better February.