jwilson

Dreamweaver is pretty comprehensive, and it helps a ton if you know how to code HTML/PHP/CSS (among others). That's the only true web developing program I've ever used. If you don't have much experience coding, you can consider using something like Squarespace which gives you templates and does most of the backend work for you. Most of those sites end up looking a tad "samey" which might be a turn-off, but if you aren't overly concerned with looks, you might not care. I'm guessing for your needs, you'll be more concerned about functionality and utility versus aesthetics. Wordpress is another option. If you're data-heavy, building a MySQL/SQL database will be a more intensive task but may be worth it in the long-run. That said, it really depends what you need. If you're not relying on queries or interactivity much then it's possibly overkill. I used to do freelance web developing back in the day. It has been a few years since I've truly built a website from scratch, but if you needed some assistance with basic things I could probably help. Likewise if there are any graphics you need.

This winter looks like it could be the strongest La Nina since the winter of 2010-11.. which, if we look back, Pittsburgh received 56.7" of snow that year, decently above the most recent 30-year average of 42" or so. Now that's a simplistic look at the Nina (you can dive deeper into the specific east/west/central orientation). I don't have the time right now to look much deeper. I will, however, quickly compare other strong La Nina winters (anything below -1.0 value) to see how Pittsburgh has done historically in snowfall terms, starting with the most recent: 2011-12 // Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.9" 2010-11 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 56.7" 2007-08 // Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 41.2" 1999-00 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 27.1" 1998-99 // Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 39.2" 1988-89 // Peak Nina value of -1.8 - Snowfall: 21.7" 1984-85 // Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.4" 1975-76 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 35.6" 1973-74 // Peak Nina value of -2.0 - Snowfall: 16.6" 1970-71 // Peak Nina value of -1.4 - Snowfall: 59.9" Average snowfall over these 10 winters: 37.1" The mean Nina prediction right now favors one below -1.5. I could keep going back further but figure records from that era are relatively meaningless given overall climate changes. From this sample of 10 years, however, we see that the majority of these winters are below average in snowfall terms (7 out of 10). One year is basically right on average, while two winters were above normal. Once again, I admit this is a very basic analysis and does not include looking at other teleconnections or signals that could have driven the winter beyond the Nina/Nino state. Still, even at the basic level, this isn't a promising look if you're a snowfall lover. Assuming we manage a strong Nina, chances greatly favor a below-average snowfall season. This could be considered bad news coming off one of the WORST snowfall seasons last year (22.4", lowest since 1990-91). Ultimately, it isn't set in stone, however. There are chances some other atmospheric condition could override or overpower the Nina and drive the dominant weather pattern. The forecast for above-average temps all winter obviously coincides with a prediction for less snow than "normal," but again, it doesn't guarantee anything so long as there are actual cold spells from time-to-time. On an additional note, I think I consider 2010-11 an outlier given it was the follow-up to the tremendous winter of 2009-10, which will remain unmatched for who knows how long. Those winters were aided heavily by a record-breaking -AO, making the ENSO state much less important.

So are we going to pay for this in October with 90s, or are we going to have an actual autumn this year?

Winds starting to move a bit more now as we're approaching what would be the eye wall. Neighbor just lost a tree in their back yard, though luckily it mostly hit nothing with some braches laying on the lines.

It is coming down in buckets now. Lots of standing water. The winds have picked up, as well, but nothing TS force yet.

Ended up driving in last night. Rain had mostly dissipated. This morning we're presently on the dry side or very eastern edge of the precip which should soften flooding locally, though it looks bad just to my west.

Having to drive into Philly this week. I was originally planning tomorrow morning, but looks like I should re-think that option and do it tonight, instead. I've checked the models, and the GFS is faster than most of the others (Euro, CMC, etc). That said, the Hurricane models themselves don't look particularly appealing during the morning hours tomorrow. Seems between 10 and 3 could be the peak, give or take.

I was in 8th grade at the time and remember getting out of school early, only I had to walk home in the absolutely pouring rain. There were some places locally that used to flood quite often in the 90s and early aughts, I don't think they've had those issues in a while. Whether that's a change in weather or mitigation, I'm not sure, but I do think some of those rain storms have been unequaled.

I'm a storm chaser at heart, so mostly I'm interested in storm development for something to follow. Yesterday's early morning derecho that swept across the state acted like a broom for our area and essentially pushed all the instability south and east of us. The resulting outflow setup convection across extreme southern PA into WV. Locally, we haven't had a real thunderstorm since April 8th. I have to think two months during the spring without an event is pretty unusual for this area, although June and July are the peak months on average. The cooler spring is the main culprit, of course. Considering it will maintain 80s through October nowadays I guess we have to be okay with it. We'll likely make up for it later. Yep. It's bad enough missing out during the winter months, but now we keep missing during thunderstorm season, too? In the end I'm sure it's just a blip. Things will turn around at some point. Theoretically they should, anyway.

Another "slight" risk of severe today and it looks like, once again, Pittsburgh metro and points north will miss out. Depends on your perspective, of course, but it seems like the metro area has been having some bad luck lately on the stormy weather. Everything seems to be missing south or farther north.

At this time of year, if anything over a trace would be historic, a 9" snowfall would be biblical, and I'd consider Armageddon right around the corner.

We've had a trace of snow in May twice since 2000 ('01-'02 & '15-'16).. let's go for a third.

If it wasn't for today, we would have had a higher max temp in January (71) this year than in April (70 was previous max). Oof.

Well that was an intense line, definitely one of the most dynamic cells I've witnessed since living here. Tornado warning popped on the TV, but it wasn't really for us. Hope you're all good up in New Kensington. Twitter report said there was a tornado near Markle. I was watching power flashes in the distance from my viewpoint. Actually a lot of other strange lighting colors during the storm, as well.

We got a very brief and minor bout of hail yesterday with that "supercell," but it seemed the actual hail core went south of us, closer to Canonsburg. Our hail was minuscule in comparison (pea size at the most).

When I get older, I'm retiring to Mammoth Lakes or Lake Tahoe. 200" of snow per year. Ideally I'll have a place I can ski/snowboard right out to the slopes.

For 2009, even I got screwed a tad on that one being in the Philly suburbs. Philly measured 23" and I got 12" - that entire winter was full of tight gradient snow storms.

I think my 3.2" is a final. We've been getting showery snows for a while now but nothing is adding up. I measured 1.7" at 5:30 AM and 2.8" at 7:30 AM. Center cut Allegheny got stuck under subsidence/divergence earlier and that limited our totals. Likewise, a lot of our snow was very fine flakes. I think one of the things the models didn't handle well was snow growth. Perhaps that was due to wind shear in the upper levels? I'm not well versed in the DGZ. This one hit the target; not an overperformer nor did it disappoint, necessarily. If we had some blocking it could have been amazing. To get anything in this winter is luck, though. A shame we don't see these inland low tracks more often. Still waiting for that widespread overrunning event that gets everyone.

Changeover occurred between 330 and 4 AM. Have what looks to be an inch or so thus far, boundary might be setting up east, but the snow side of this system looks more robust (for now) than expected. We'll see when bombogensis occurs how frontogenic forcing interplays with the current shield.

SREF plumes are up to a mean of over 4" now, compared to 2.5" earlier. Meanwhile, the HRDPS is a pretty good hit for us (6-10"), though the model name always makes me think it's derpy. Not sure it's all that valuable, just another possible solution.

The dynamics involved mean this storm has high bust potential either direction. The heaviest band has swung from the west back to the east of us today.

GEFS mean at 12Z was 5" for PIT. That's robust. Hard to trust it, though. We should have some white rain, but I don't know for how long. SREF mean is 2.5". High-res NAM has changeover around 2-3 AM. GFS is slower, closer to 6-7 AM. Canadian agrees. Bunch of mesoscale models are 4-5 AM, including SREFS, HRRR, ARW. RGEM has the bulk of snow over by 8 AM. In other words, there's a spread, but I would be more inclined to trust the faster solutions. Chances favor the snow rates are at or past peak at 7 AM. Messy commute.

Based on the 12Z suite, I'd say the odds *look* decent for at least a 2" event in the metro area, which would probably be the biggest storm for most - if not all - of us. I'm only at ~6" on the season versus the NWS measurement. For right now, the NWS has PIT at a 74% chance of 2" or more. 44% chance at 4" or more. 1% chance at >12" (lol). Given the intense convection and fast storm movement we'll see, there's also a high bust potential for those areas that fall outside of the best convective bands (or get stuck under divergence). It will likely come down to a nowcast event. Reminds me of tracking Miller B's off the coast. A lot of times you'd have wildly different snow totals just a few miles apart because of the convergence/divergence and banding.