jwilson

As I would understand it, perhaps the model cannot pick up on an extremely shallow layer of warm air at the surface, which allows precip to reach the ground as snow despite surface temps remaining above freezing? Obviously that sounding depicts a thicker layer of warm air, indicating rain or even freezing rain. I don't know if this "error" can be depicted visually and that's why the sounding looks off or if it's something else entirely. The other problem I believe models have is understanding actual accumulating snow versus snow that falls but does not accumulate. If snow is supported, models expect that snow to accumulate and display the total amounts as such. However, they cannot differentiate when snow does not actually accumulate due to warm air near the surface or warm antecedent air that prevents falling snow from piling up. I'm not an expert, of course, and this is only my speculation. I can confirm it is snowing right now out there but is still too warm at the surface to support accumulating snow.

I know there have been discussions of a "warm" signal, but honestly I don't see anything to indicate we're heading into a prolonged or significant torch season. It is more like moderate temperatures, normal to just slightly above, for a few days at most. I believe all the models are on board with a west based -NAO at this point, and even though that exists in the volatile mid-to-long range, consensus makes me a bit more confident. Ironically, we don't really want a weakened (and potentially white) storm this weekend. We'd be better off getting an over-amped lakes cutter to set the table for next week where the potential exists for something more significant. The GFS has this evolution while the Euro does not. Of course the Euro doesn't give us a whole lot of anything, anyway. Because the pattern is active and in transition, I don't feel particularly strong about any individual storm signals or solutions beyond 3 days. We might have to wait for a surprise. While that's not as satisfying as tracking something longer term, we're in a better position than if things were cold and dry. We've favored cold mostly and have energy consistently arriving.

Hey I heard you guys like snow holes.

I'd say put all of PA under one subforum, but I realize the climates are diverse and it certainly isn't a perfect fit. We all have our "IMBY" preferences and microclimates. Central PA and Western PA only have one thread each and for some reason are lumped in with Upstate New York. That part doesn't make a ton of sense, either. Would Upstate NY (which I assume includes Western NY) fit in better with the NYC forum, making separate NY and PA regions? NJ can remain split - north going to NY and south going to PA. DE could perhaps also split - north into PA and south into Mid-Atlantic. As someone that has lived in three of the four corners of PA, I can attest there are considerable differences. Nonetheless, since all the regions are small on their own, maybe it would be worth it to combine them all into one moderately sized discussion pool? I like following what is happening all over PA and having to jump between forums is somewhat an inconvenience, albeit a very minor one.

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us. If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump. Everything in this current pattern is fast moving. Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point. It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns. A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains. If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise. December is a bit more marginal.

Most of the forecasts I've seen are calling for snow in the middle and peak of winter, but the book-ends may be mild and undesirable for snow lovers. If January comes and goes and we're still below average, only then will I get uncomfortable. For now the lack of snow is merely mild disappointment.

Just what we want and expect to see on December 1st. Severe thunderstorms. Oh, we're not in the southern hemisphere?

I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did. I'll expect nothing. Last 30 years in November: 13.9" most (1995-96) Trace least (9 different years) 2.3" average In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received. To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing. 13/30 or 43% of the time. Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November. Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total. Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.

High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts. GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so. Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh. Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste. As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.

FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16. I think it is possible we can beat that date this year. Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.

Well, at this time of year, probably not much (super low ratios). 5-10" maybe? If we can get this into some cold in January, perhaps a nice foot or two.

THE WARM TONGUE DOES NOT ABATE! Seriously though, we had a fairly prolonged period of -NAO through this year (spring/summer). Hopefully that holds into the winter. Seems like it has been a while since we've seen the same during the cold seasons. It would really help our chances.

I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight). Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th. There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.

Remember when September used to be a cool month? I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter). Looks like the heat will continue into October again.

I was planning on hitting the links Friday or Saturday.. maybe not such a good idea now? I have played in the heat before, it's just miserable. And no alcohol, of course.

Here's a couple images from last night that I captured on that final severe storm of the evening. This was on the very southern edge of the cell. First is the possible wall cloud. This isn't the best it looked, but it's the only real view on tape I managed to grab of it (this is actually a still from a video). It looked a bit more defined as it approached. There was a clear inflow band, as well (extending off to the right of this image). Unfortunately, I didn't end up attempting to get any more pictures or videos of it for some dumb reason. Here is a quick GIF of some lightning I captured. It got pretty intense. Evidently there was hail with this storm further to the north, but the core of the storm missed me. (If image isn't working, click here.)

Just caught the southern tip of that severe storm. No hail, impressive light show, looked like a wall cloud as it moved in (hard to make out at night for certain but thanks light pollution). Some nice video, as well, but my phone is almost dead so I'll see what's worth revisiting tomorrow.

If today busts for the southern regions, the enhanced risk area shifts south for tomorrow, but it might end up putting the city locales on the northern fringe instead of the southern. Could still be a miss. There will be a final chance region-wide on Thursday. The probabilities look lower in severe terms, however, at least for now.

Couple more chances for severe upcoming, but thus far this year there hasn't been much locally. I think June is our peak season, though.

Around here there wasn't much action of which to speak. Seems we got stuck in the outflow dominant/downdraft portion of the squall line. There was a funnel cloud spotted near Conneaut Lake. Not sure if anything ever touched the ground, but that same storm has held tornado-warned status for a while now.

Took quite a while before the roads caved. Light snow in general. Definitely been in a subsidence zone most of the day. Doubt we verify on the high end.

I think the question a lot of folks have is whether we have entered a new normal with snow in these areas, or if it's more of a short-term decadal trend.

Even if this wave stood on its own, it would have had way more potential. The fast flow would have prevented HECS labels, but all these little pieces of energy had to fight with each other in the last few days. The coastal helped robbed this main storm of some energy and pushed it south. We were looking at a 12" event a couple days ago, now we're down to 2-4" if we're lucky. In March, that just doesn't cut it. Hopefully coastal enhancement means it overperforms for you folks, though.

I see we were downgraded to an Advisory. lol