jwilson

Don't fret, folks! March will be rockin' and we'll have a great pattern for snow next fall ... only for it to fall apart before winter actually begins so we can do this all over again.

We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7). We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range. Maybe that's not an issue here. I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output. If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us. Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps. That result seems VERY low probability to me. I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly.

The GFS has been abysmal this winter. I simply don't trust it in this pattern regime. It is January, so the lack of a pronounced antecedent cold should be easier to overcome then if it were March, but we know our local climate. Plenty of caution ahead.

Which one is that? Seeing the GFS spit out those 5" readings was comical, given the result. Bar none it seems to be almost completely worthless this season.

Temp has risen 5 degrees since snow stopped, but maybe there's room for some evap. cooling once it kicks back in (and had just slightly begun).

Moderate snow in Hatboro - cold (19F) and small, powdery flakes. I haven't measured yet, but eyeballing 0.5" on all surfaces.

Petition to re-title this thread as, "Winter cracks the door open a smidge to see how the party is, decides to leave instead because it looks boring."

For the current time period going into February, ideal MJO phases are 8 through 3 (as you mention). 4 thru 7 are warm. If the MJO crashes and burns into the COD after a mid-amplitude 7 without even reaching 8, as it is progged to do, that's absolutely less than ideal, downright devious. Bad luck. But it fits with the pacific pattern, which has been driving most of the action this season. The AO isn't helping to counteract any of that bad juju.

Welcome to our little pit of misery! Enjoy commiserating with fellow snow lovers that don't get to see much snow very often, haha. I'm being facetious, of course. Hopefully one of these days we'll see the big dog again, but it appears unlikely - though not impossible - to be this season.

2015-16 was the last year under 30" (29.6"). 1990-91 was the last year under 20" (17.2"). The only other year in relatively modern history below 20" was the winter of 1973-74 (16.6"). Otherwise you're going back to the 30s, which apparently was a horrendous decade for snow. More recently, there was that pretty futile stretch in the late 80s and 90s where PIT was below average 13 out of 16 years, including six years in a row two separate times ('86 thru '92 and then '96 thru '02). This stretch was interspersed with quite high yearly snowfalls exceeding 70" three times (72.1" in '92-'93, 76.8" in '93-'94, and 74.5" in '95-'96). Going below average this year would make 4 of the last 5.

Sort of like how 10 days ago the GFS wanted to give us 10" of snow, and instead we'll be approaching 70F. I wonder how the NWS feels about their updated model.

It snowed at a decent rate for an hour or so, but the flakes were small and it didn't accumulate anywhere except on elevated surfaces (and the grass has frosted tips, I guess). I guess you'd measure that at 0.1" or so.

Light snow/rain mix just started falling in Hatboro. 40F still, 25 DP. Hopefully that evap. cooling sets in quickly.

Yeah, the longer this goes on, the more I'm convinced it is simply an extension of the pattern that served us last winter. They aren't quite the same, but it's more a matter of these conditions are a follow up to those previous. These cycles can last for multiple winters. I don't buy the 10-day solutions that consistently get punted backwards as we get closer. I'm more interested in watching what is driving the current pattern and seeing if there's any chance of it breaking down. Right now, I don't see anything. It's a strong central pacific ridge, supported by the flow upstream, that won't abate. This simply won't be a great winter. That's how the dice rolls on occasion. I should add: there's always the possibility we get a popup storm solution. 2016 comes to mind. Unlikely, and the overall pattern won't be conducive to repeats or consistency, but that's really all there is to save the overall snow totals.

All this moisture is almost too much of a good thing (from a theoretical perspective). Despite the wet years, it hasn't translated into more snow. It is rare for all the teleconnections to align for positive outcomes. Likewise, it simply becomes a game of chance (or only a matter of time) when they'll all align in the opposite direction for pure nightmare fuel. -PNA, +AO, +NAO, poor MJO alignment. All at once. I don't know enough about the interrelationships and atmospheric science, but I feel like it is bound to happen eventually.

Absent a fluke event, I would say no. There might be a brief relaxation period of the overall pattern in early January. Otherwise . . . This is the doldrums. 50F days around the holidays and an extended period heading into January where snow doesn't really exist. Funnily enough, the Euro weeklies back in early December gave us a total of 11" of snow through the end of January (which of course is well below normal). I thought that was extreme, but as of now I'm more convinced it may be prophetic. This pacific pattern is stout and may last for the foreseeable future. If a pattern change does happen, and it can, we may not know about it until after the fact. However, a lot of winter forecasts also called for an early end to winter. If those are to be believed, "winter" may have only existed in November. One problem we're seeing, I think, is the GFS/GEFS issues overdoing cold in the mid-and-long ranges. They keep wanting to give us snow but it caves every time to the Euro once the timeframe closes. Now they can't be trusted, but I don't know if that's a pattern issue or a model bias. Watch the main indices (PNA / AO / NAO / EPO / MJO) and see if any flip to more favorable conditions.

Truthfully, I don't know much of anything about Johnstown other than the big flood happened there. I will say being in the Laurel Highlands is a huge benefit, as you figured from the increased snow totals, though the really big winner tends to be Garrett County, Maryland. They are constantly getting warning level events while Pittsburgh metro gets a dusting or even nothing at all. The big ski towns like Seven Springs and Hidden Valley (near Somerset, PA) are the next best snow locales in the area. With some places you have to be careful of microclimates. If you're on the leeward side of a ridge or "mountain" you'll see isolated spots without much accumulation relative to the rest of the area. I'm a "big storm" guy so for me it's a struggle. Watching Philly get coastals while we have a high ceiling isn't ideal. If we ever get a '93 superstorm again, though, then we're in the money! I don't know why I haven't just moved to a ski town and gotten it over with. I feel like we played this game before, notably last year. The good pattern kept appearing in the D10 range but would just as quickly vanish. I don't even know if I should compare the two years because I'm not sure they are analogous, but the lack of predictability now isn't my cup of tea. I will say we seemingly had good patterns progged for Christmas, then New Year's, until we didn't, and we're high and dry. Back to the drawing board for long range forecasters. If nothing happens for the first few weeks of January then you're gonna have to punt the whole month. I'm an end-of-January birthday and I couldn't even tell you the last time we had snow of any significance during that last week of January. Not for as long as I've been alive. I don't know why but it doesn't happen.

Pittsburgh metro averages 41" or so each year. Almost all of that is nickel and dime stuff. We get weak lake-enhanced squalls (relative to the actual lake areas like Erie), clippers, etc. Think 10-20 events of 1-3" over the winter. Storms of more than 6" are actually quite rare, and there hasn't been a storm greater than 8" since 2010. Too far west for Miller B's, warm-tongue microclimate (due to geographic relation to mountains) that can result in rain for Miller A's. I realize the seasonal average is double that of Philly's so it sounds great, but really, as a snow lover I am not at all impressed.

Appreciate your analysis. I agree on not being ready to cancel winter, but these slow starts lately can be discouraging. I come back to Philly for the holidays each year and it has been quite a long time since we've had snow around Christmas or New Year's. At least from what my brain will let me remember. Last year especially (among others) have been cold, even brutally so, but also dry in recent history. One of these years we might see December return. I assume it's only a short-term episode and not something longer term (or permanent) attributable to climactic or environmental shifts. On the western side of the state, March has out-performed December in six of the last eight years despite long-term averages favoring December for now.

Long-range models can't decipher a good pattern to save their life, but as soon as a bad one appears: lock it in! You'd think I'd have learned by now that if the Euro shows a bad result, that's the outcome 90% of the time. (Also, if it shows a good result, that only works out 10% of the time). ... What's confirmation bias?

I don't know how others feel, but I prefer a snowy December to snow in March. Kind of disappointing that we've been stuck in this pattern lately where the snow doesn't really show up until January or even February. Still, Pittsburgh is way over due for an >8" storm. Because it isn't unprecedented, I'll consider this some relatively short-term trend. There have been snow lulls in history, extended ones usually followed up by a massive season of >70" total. As an illustration: Six of the last eight years we've had more snow in March than December. The long-term average still favors December, but they are close.

Since I did this for November I figured I should do it for December, as well. 30 year snowfall average in December - 7.8" (Down half an inch from the prior 30-year mean) 21.3" highest amount over this period (2003) T least (1994) We're actually in a bit of a downturn right now, having had below-average snow for four of the last five years (<2" for three of those). Average snowfall in December over last five years - 4.4" (Saved only by 2017-18's 13.3") If the long-range modeling is to be believed, we're about to punt the rest of December, as well, which would indicate another well below average month. I've measured only 1.5" locally so far. This feels like a continuation of "brown" Decembers, a short-term trend. I don't know how long this will last in the grand scheme of things. This year hasn't been as warm as past Decembers, either, but still just as snowless. Perhaps something to keep in mind for the future. I should add this low period isn't completely unique in Pittsburgh's history. You do have to go back quite a while to find any comparable five-year averages. Other than between '98-'02 (a 4.5" average over four years), you have to jump to the 70s to find a similar set of circumstances. Definitely uncommon.

Yeah I agree. I never expected a whole lot from this so I'm hardly disappointed, but based on experience, if there is a "mixed" solution per the models, I almost always err on the side of warmth. Models struggle to handle the low-level warm surge around this area (microclimate). If there isn't a strong block in place, it is pretty much guaranteed we see a warmer solution. I expect mostly rain (if not all rain).

That would be amazing to witness, but I have to imagine the NFL would cancel the game if this happened. Obviously the league did the same back when that Vikings' game was rescheduled and the Eagles, perhaps infamously, lost to Joe Webb later in the week. Link to postponement story: https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=5956740 Link to game results: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201012280phi.htm

The snow looks close, but we have some really dry air to overcome. I have to wonder if this is an error of some kind? The sounding shows a DPT at 826 hPa of -51.3F. That's crazy. Mid-levels are bone dry elsewhere, too, though.