jwilson

Seems to be picking up on a trend with the models of a Miller B next Sunday-Tuesday. Not a typically great setup for our area. Our totals will depend on the timing issue and how vigorous the primary low is before transfer. The storm back in December was more of a hybrid system while this one looks like a pure B event, which are great for coastal regions but tricky elsewhere. I would cap expectations (for now) at 4-8" tops. Not a bad event, but not particularly notable, either.

Well, the December honeymoon sure ended quickly. We have a theoretically decent pattern, but the general atmospheric conditions are not poised for snow storms along the east coast. Comes down to a couple different factors, but it seems like the snowy conditions were relegated to Europe and Asia where the PV has hung out most of the winter. Of course, Ninas are typically more dry for us, anyway. I guess we'll see if February changes anything or if snow shows up as we transition to spring and more moisture.

I see two main systems right now: Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday. Next weekend perhaps has the most potential, but what's depicted on the Euro would look a lot better if it dug and made a turn up the coast. Instead, it just ejects due east. We don't do poorly, though it feels like wasted potential. If the confluence is the issue, then we'll have to wait for it to relax and hope we can time a storm appropriately. There's something else behind that, too, Sunday/Monday (31-1st) but it's too far out and has other pieces in front to know how it will interact. Late January storms are somewhat rare, for whatever reason. Maybe this February won't be like a typical Nina and we get a refresh to re-open the big storm window.

Historical analysis over thirty years - 2005-'06 was the last lean year after a strong December showing: 5.5" in January, 9.7" in February, and 1.4" in March. Most of the time with an above-average December we get at least one more above-average month, but two or even three is much more common. There's a 27-31% chance, give or take, we end winter on a down note and "below normal." If January busts out (below average and/or less than December), our odds increase to a ~67% chance for a below normal rest of winter. The most unusual exception was 1992-'93 - I think we can all see the relevance of that year. January brought only 2.1", but February and March combined for over 52" (18.5" and 34.1" respectively).

Snow on top of snow is the best kind, IMHO. I love the ambience of it.

10.5" storm total here, measured at 3 AM (when the snow was officially over). I was at 9.8 before the final couple bands pushed it over the top. The Euro is a winner here, along with the HREFs (the only short-term model that had us in the 10-12" range in that final 24-hour period). The GFS was awful for this storm, perhaps unsurprisingly. Too many mesoscale features for it to handle. The NAM waffled too much. It was correct on a couple runs, I suppose. Now enjoy the snow gifs. Most were taken at the height of the storm where we briefly touched 4"/hr rates.

I'm up to 6.25" of snow here. We legit hit 4"/hr rates in that mega band not long ago. While I was on my "Jebwalk," I measured an inch in 15 minutes at peak. Too bad it didn't last longer.

I'm going to be Ross in a minute yelling at those returns just to my west to PIVOT.

Thank you! Current obs: stuck in an area of subsidence. Feel like we've been here for a while now and that will cut totals down.

I think it is in the process of doing that now, but on that note, does anyone know of a good site for real-time surface and upper-air maps? I can't seem to find one.

You can kind of see the size of the flakes in that band. Huge growth. Must be near max lift in the DGZ. https://i.imgur.com/zY1qXFE.mp4

Border of Mt. Lebo/USC

Ripping hard right now. This band is fantastic. SN+

Looks like some dry air is penetrating from the west/southwest. Perhaps we have a lull until the coastal starts cranking.

I'm seeing some 35-40 DBZ returns to our south in Greene county. Is that sleet or an intense band of snow?

Approaching moderate snow here. The growth itself isn't terrible, but I'd place it as a little less than optimal.

Comparing it to some of the model runs yesterday ... the low location is basically right on off the SC coast, and that's accurate for the time frame, but the precip shield was grossly undermodeled, especially on the western side, but also throughout the entire "snow" region of the precip. That could be good news. Maybe we get an overperformance here. We'll have to see how the banding sets up later.

Yeah the storm is about 2-3 hours ahead of schedule, at least according to most mesoscale models.

Entering the first - and hopefully last - dry slot of the day. Rates dropped off significantly. That first round put down a light coating on most surfaces.

Definitely snowing here now in the South Hills. A consistent rate but still quite light.

I'm checking the cams here: http://wv511.org/#MapPlace:-80.146723587035:39.608696977762:-79.817133743284:39.711115431707 It looks like it is actually starting to snow now.

As for nowcasting time, I do see some 30 DBZ returns to our south already, which would be pretty far ahead of schedule. I'm trying to see if it's actually snowing in Morgantown, but it doesn't look like it yet. I'm guessing we're still in virga territory. Edit - ah I do see a few flakes in downtown. Perhaps it has started.

I can understand that. It is unfortunate. Big storms are too rare for Pittsburgh. However, for some hope today, the HREFs still have a 30% chance of more than a foot, and the ensemble mean remains between 10-12" across most of Allegheny. I think it might be crazy, but at least there's a tiny bit of guidance that still looks like the 12Z NAM from yesterday.

Yeah kind of a strange result from the NWS to up my totals overnight. That seems to go against the grain of the model trends with a less moisture-laden system. It was 4-8" when I went to bed and 6-9" now. I like the 4-8" call and think that was adequate. I think somewhere between 4-6" is the most likely result for the majority of our sub, exclusions to our eastern-most residents that could get more. Still a slight chance we hit higher end totals if we get the banding right, I'm just less confident in that now. Also strange to see the GFS so far apart from most every other model still. While it's a relative disappoint to what could have been, I think everyone here would have signed up for two 3"+ storms before Christmas, especially knowing it was a Nina.

I wanted to add this bit of analysis, even if it's a tad stale by now. One of the more under-rated aspects as to why the 12Z NAM and 0Z NAM gave us such different results could be because of a northern shortwave pressing down less on the overall picture. First we see the 12Z NAM run: In this view, we can see that northern stream piece of energy fluxing a "mini trough" down over Minnesota. This, in turn, lowers the heights and contours of the overall Eastern CONUS trough and raises heights along the East Coast. What that means: it forces the energy and the associated low with the coastal to ride a more westerly track and tuck farther into the Delmarva area (even into the Chesapeake). It heads more north or NNE instead of just NE or even east. However, the 0Z changes that piece of energy: The 0Z NAM makes this piece of energy far less relevant. In that sense, the s/w has less overall effect on the trough and allows for a more progressive or flatter look to the heights along the East Coast. The associated low can then escape quicker or, at least, take less of an "amplified" track that would otherwise force it into Delaware or southern PA. The main energy now sweeps across New Jersey and south of D.C. instead of right over the urban corridor. That's enough of a difference to take us out of the main game, so to speak. I would imagine the models have a better handle on all these energies now closer to game-time. If that's true then it's an unfortunate result, but not totally unforeseeable.