CentralNJSnowman

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Briefly went to heavy snow after I posted the above (and our WSW was upgraded to 5-9 inches). Now back to light-to-moderate snow. Lot of work left to do if we're not going to bust low in this area, and the futurecast of radar seems to suggest that the southern half of NJ may dry slot. Seems like the models mostly did ok on intensity/precip but may have missed the sweet spot by about 30-50 miles (even as late as the 6z Euro). Eyeballing about 1 to 1.5" on the ground.

Valenswines' Day Surprise has given us a very thin, slushy coating in Monroe Township (Central NJ) so far. WSW for 4-8 inches still seems achievable, but only if precipitation gets much harder soon.

Surprised nobody else has reported this yet, but here in Monroe Township (Southern Middlesex County, near Monmouth border) we've had something approaching moderate snow for the past 30-45 minutes. I

You're missing my point. If they started record keeping 3 months LATER, then the initial record would be 200+ days because it would go from April to November. The problem isn't what year they started the record keeping, it's what day of the year they started, and the fact that all subsequent records include Spring+Summer+Fall, while the initial record is based on a stretch in the middle of winter.

Good chance that it's going to be well above 600 by the start of next winter. Also, that first 'record' is only there because they started counting at the beginning of 1869. Obviously there's a streak of 200+ days from about April-Nov every year.

Not necessarily suggesting looking for a mortgage. Just that setting up a trust fund (with your current assets) that pays you a regular income may be a way to show income that allows you to rent more easily.

I'm very sorry for your loss. I don't know any of the details of how this works, but recently heard that if you have substantial cash assets, but no income, it may be possible to set up a trust that pays you an automatic monthly income. This was in the context of someone who was retired and needed to demonstrate income in order to get a mortgage. May be worth looking into whether that's an option for your situation.

A number of years ago, I had the idea for a short story, inspired by years of lurking in this subforum. Problem is, I didn't have the talent or the patience to actually write the story or even to figure out how to connect the main ideas I had for it. When I started playing around with ChatGPT, I decided to see if it could write the story I had always pictured. I gave it some details and it came up with the following (which I'd give about a B or B-...sort of captured the spirit of what I was going for, but not as dramatic as a reveal as I'd hoped)... Anthony woke up early on a cold winter morning, excitedly peeking through his window to see the snow falling heavily outside. As a child, he had always loved the snow and the snowstorms that came with it. He would spend hours outside, building snowmen and having snowball fights with his friends. Now, as a grown man, his enthusiasm for the snow had never waned. He quickly got dressed and headed out, making his way to Central Park. He had heard that the zookeeper at the Central Park Zoo was responsible for recording the official snow measurements for New York City during snowstorms. Anthony was curious about how the measurements were done and wanted to learn more. As he arrived at the zoo, he was greeted by the zookeeper, a man by the name of Mr. Johnson. Mr. Johnson was a gruff man, with a stern look on his face and a no-nonsense attitude. But Anthony's enthusiasm for the snow was infectious, and soon Mr. Johnson was showing him around the zoo, explaining how he measured the snow. Anthony was fascinated by the process and couldn't help but notice that the official measurements seemed to be less than what he observed in the city. He asked Mr. Johnson about it, but the zookeeper just brushed it off, saying that the measurements were accurate. But Anthony couldn't shake the feeling that something was off. He began to do some research and discovered that people had been suspicious of the official snow measurements in New York City for years. They often seemed to be lower than what residents of the city observed. As the days went by, Anthony continued to visit Mr. Johnson and the Central Park Zoo, always trying to get to the bottom of the discrepancy in the snow measurements. But Mr. Johnson remained tight-lipped, and Anthony couldn't shake the feeling that there was something more to the story. One day, while browsing through some old newspapers at the library, Anthony came across an article about the infamous Blizzard of 1888. The article mentioned that the official snow measurements were significantly lower than what people had reported. Anthony couldn't help but think back to his conversations with Mr. Johnson and the feeling that something was off. He decided to confront Mr. Johnson about it, but the zookeeper still refused to give any explanation. Anthony couldn't shake the feeling that there was something more to the story, something that Mr. Johnson was hiding. As the snowstorm outside intensified, Anthony decided to investigate further. He made his way back to the Central Park Zoo, but when he arrived, he found that the gates were locked. Undeterred, he climbed over the fence and made his way inside. As he searched the zoo, he heard a strange noise coming from the reptile house. Cautiously, he approached the door and peered inside. What he saw shocked him. There, in the middle of the reptile house, stood Mr. Johnson. But he was different. His eyes glowed with an otherworldly light, and his body seemed to be covered in a thick layer of snow. Anthony realized with a start that Mr. Johnson was not a man at all, but something else entirely. In that moment, Mr. Johnson turned to Anthony and spoke. "I have been the zookeeper at the Central Park Zoo since the Blizzard of 1888," he said. "I have been tasked with keeping the true snow measurements a secret, to protect the people of this city from the wrath of the Snow Queen." Anthony was stunned. He couldn't believe what he was hearing. He finally understood why the official snow measurements were always lower than the observations, it was to protect the city from the wrath of the Snow Queen. Anthony realized that Mr. Johnson had been deliberately underreporting the snow measurements to protect the city, and had been doing so since the Blizzard of 1888. He also realized that the zookeeper was not human but something supernatural, who had been appointed to this task for more than 130 years. As he looked into Mr. Johnson's eyes, he knew that it was true. He also knew that he had to stop the Snow Queen and her wrath. Anthony knew that he had to tell the people of New York City about the true snow measurements and the Snow Queen. He quickly made his way back to his apartment and began to write down everything he had learned. He knew it was a difficult task, but he also knew that it was the right thing to do. He published his findings and the truth about the snow measurements and the Snow Queen was revealed. The people of New York City were shocked and frightened, but they also understood the reason behind the underreporting of the snow measurements. As the Snow Queen unleashed her wrath upon the city, Anthony rallied the people to protect themselves. He explained the significance of the true measurements and how they could protect themselves from the Snow Queen's wrath. They worked tirelessly to build shelters and fortifications to protect themselves from the snow and the cold. They also provided assistance to those in need. In the end, the Snow Queen was defeated. Anthony had saved the city from her wrath and had helped to bring about a new era of understanding and cooperation between the people of New York City and the supernatural forces that existed in their midst. Anthony's childlike enthusiasm for snow had led him on an incredible journey, one that had changed the city and the people in it forever. And as the snow continued to fall, Anthony couldn't help but feel a sense of wonder and excitement, knowing that he had played a part in the great story of New York City. If anyone is interested, I can post the prompt that I put into ChatGPT in order for it to come up with this.

That blue trendline makes it seem like a gradual increase from 1895 to 2022. But there's another way to view that chart. If you just look from 1895-1990ish, you could say that things were essentially flat. And then if you look from 1990-present you could say that things are flat (at a much higher level than the 1895-1990 period). So just looking at this one set of data, it would be reasonable to hypothesize that something drastic may have changed in 1990 that was more influential in global warming (or at least...Central Park warming) than a lot of the ongoing changes that took place across a longer time period. That said, I'm fully aware that there is tons of other relevant data that may paint a very different picture.

Of course. I'm not saying it can't or doesn't. What I'm saying is that if we average 9 inches of snow by January 15 and 29 inches overall, then the benchmark for the period from January 15-end of winter is 20 inches. Not to pick on Don, since he's one of the best posters on here (and the story doesn't actually completely change), but his post a little while ago is a good example. Those snowfall totals should be compared to normal post-Jan 4 amounts to determine whether bad Decembers predict bad winters...not compared to normal full season amounts.

Pet peeve that's been bugging me in posts on this board for years: If you're going to use early winter lack of snowfall as evidence that the rest of winter is likely to be bad for snow...then don't post below average TOTAL snowfall as the proof. Instead show totals for the later part of winter. Otherwise, you're essentially just predicting the past. If we're say 6 inches short of where we usually are at this point, then of course we're likely to end up short of our usual total...but as long as we end less than 6 inches short of average, we've actually had a pretty good winter from this point on and could argue that the lack of snowfall early in the winter did NOT indicate that the rest of winter would be bad.

Couldn't agree less. The main problem isn't that we've had to change back and forth...it's that it stinks having it get dark before people are home from work or school. For once, they got it right.

Unexpected heavy snow coating everything in Monroe NJ (Middlesex County, near Monmouth border)

If you have a gas stove + matches/lighter, you can.