StruThiO

This imminent El Nino is going to make a run for strong IMO.

I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless, I've never seen daily SOI values of +50

All I gotta say is. I hope people are taking this one seriously despite the calendar

Here's how Nicole's current pressure of ~993-4mb (per 995mb dropsonde w/ 29 kt surface wind) compares to global guidance from two runs ago near landfall: BTW, once this becomes a hurricane this season will have had more hurricanes form just in November than during all of 2013. As usual, that analog never holds any serious weight to it. RIP downcasters and bears

Denial is the first stage

Took 36 hours for a 60% chance of development for now 93L Julia has killed at least 60 people, I wonder if that makes it three. Not bad for another 2013 :rollseyes:

Here's a link to a real loop (ie, more than five frames): https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif

Ridiculously small file size limit of 1.95mb means I can't post an actual loop

No idea why people aren't discussing this. Globals unanimously depict favorable anomalously easterly upper flow over the Caribbean, consistent with La Nina. This looks like trouble to me.

GEFS trend. Becoming uncomfortable very quickly

Do NOT like the trend between yesterdays 0z EPS and todays 12z Appears to be associated with the tropical wave along 40W.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1575692301665333248?s=46&t=po7jyfuLJh7ZOOxtnYMNWQ

6z GEFS; 0z EPS.

ACE is ALREADY NEAR-NORMAL. WE ALREADY DID

CHARLEY. CHARLEY. CHARLEY. IT'S SPELLED CHARLEY.