magpiemaniac

I bought my new ride (2018 Toyota Tundra Limited Crewmax 4x4 V8) right before the leaves changed.  I’ll drive it for ten years at least.

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Mt. Mitchell looks good

 

I would cash in all my chips on that map for GSO.  Not a chance it’ll happen, but I’d take it. This early, I’d take flakes and call it a day.

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't know how much he got, but I am sure it underperformed his expectations.

He hasn't been on the board since early this morning.  He either did so well that he's preoccupied or so poorly that he's depressed.

3 minutes ago, thess said:

My bad. I'm a transplant (although going on 11 years now), but Greensboro still tends to be "that one little town that gets the good stadium rock concerts" to me.  

Haha!  True.  The little metro with only 1.7 million people.

Of the three metros in the NC Piedmont, never bet against the Triad to win the snow contest.  It will win 3 out of 4 times.

2 minutes ago, thess said:

I don't know anything about how television weather networks work, but I assume in edge cases like this they prioritize large viewership metros over anything else. Whatever it takes to keep the most people watching. But maybe I am overly cynical.

You'd think they'd want the most dramatic images and stories.  They should've done their homework.  We should have warned them about the legendary northwest trend. That's how it works in NC.

TWC has Reynolds Wolf and Scott Newell in Raleigh and Mike Seidel in Charlotte. Great job, guys!    Greensboro?  Where's that?  Our weather pros have never heard of it.  Haha!  Fools.

Stupid how TWC sends to road reporters to Raleigh and Charlotte just to witness wet slush.

I have relatives in Columbia, TN who said they're up to 4" of all snow, but I can see grass in their latest photos.  Looks like 1" or 2" at most.  I'm smelling some bull hockey.

Truth.

2 minutes ago, BillT said:

i thought "imby" questions were forbidden during storms? i ask because in the models thread well over half of the posts are pure IMBY.......

The mods will clean them up.

After all this hype and watching a week of the strike zone being forecasted to be to my southeast, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see what happens tonight. I don't want to even physically move out of fear of the butterfly effect.

I'm lowering my expectations and hoping for 4".

16 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

I wish that Jim Cantore wasn't here.   He is the total kiss of death when it comes to winter weather. We will be stuck with all the sleet and cold rain in Wake County. Can someone drive him over to the Triad please?

No. Keep him. I'll take my (hopefully) 8" to 12" snow without the attention.

Well, I'll be.  So the board really only goes into Storm Mode when it's a DC/NYC storm.  

Sort of scares me that RAH's forecast for GSO says...

Minimum of 0"

Most likely amount of 8"

Possibility of 12"

This storm must have a huge bust potential. Their minimum graphic show highest amounts southeast, but their most likely and possibility graphics show the highest totals northwest. Seems disjointed.

1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said:

When I read GSP's AFD for winter storms they are always so giddy like they have never seen snow before. I thought about emailing the east coast headquarters in Maryland about their lack of professionalism. It's like a long children's book.

Complain to Mom first. Maybe she'll bake you cookies.

I wonder sometimes what the guys at RAH are smoking.  They have Greensboro under a Winter Storm Warming while calling for 2" to 4".  Meanwhile, they have Goldsboro under a Winter Storm Watch while calling for 3" to 7".  In what universe does that make sense?

It's all fun and games until the next Euro run.  I don't think I'm staying up for that.

There will be fisticuffs in the main event thread soon.

Weather models suck.  True story.

Obviously, the Southeast US is a whole lot of real estate. So after each model run, it's interesting to see which geographic constituency gets really quite and and which starts to perk up. Process repeats itself every few hours.

One day, we'll learn that AmericanWX was just a huge psychological experiment.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Decent run but not as robust as 12Z for most places West of Raleigh and parts of the upstate

No worries. It'll change once again during this evening's run.

40 minutes ago, NGTim said:

i think the new "at least this much, most likely, and potential for this much" winter products are going to help them out as they don't have to put out just one number and then get grilled on it, for a situation that is going to be very variable over such a large area. 

I agree.  It does give them a lot more needed wiggle room without becoming overly vague.

Edit: I meant does instead of doesn't.

Creators of call maps seem to get lazy when it comes go forecasting anything 100 miles beyond their hometown.  Understandable and natural of course, but don't pretend you're making a regional forecast when you're only really focused on your own backyard.

I don't envy the mets at the Peachtree City NWS office right now.  They must be flustered.

If I get the 12z GFS bufkit of 10.8" for GSO, I'm cashing out with a bang and will start celebrating our forthcoming spring.  But I don't put much stock into bufkit estimates.  I'll be shocked if I get half of that.