WeatherAU

Friends take a look at this BLOB as well ... Henri could pass over this region!

Lots to talk about the recent 12z GFS run. This is MDL - Main Development Low ::: Mason Dixon Line is similar but call it this way - no problemo... It is a line that tells how far a TC needs to go to potentially affect Central NJ works for Nor'Easters as well

Perfect Circle! RED AMPED VORT - Henri TC A bit of thread the needle

No matter what happens to Fred this is a dangerous storm considering photos from the Dominican Republic.

Expanding signature definitely trying to gain massive cloud composition

Convection calmed nothing yet to suggest imminent RI.

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic //// Fred aftermath REUTERS

Window of opportunity for Fred as the convection visually backlogged itself and feels like extending timing over 30-31C... Mother Of God knows what would happen next. Shear is annoying! This stops me for a hype now...

Rapidly lifted air-mass triggered cloud tops around -90C ... just now... enough to initiate the giant engine start...

Take a look right at this moment how this new convection has a perfect circular motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir not moving much at all

Talking about comparisons here to help out what Fred might decide (30-31C is serious). Referencing Tropical Storm Cristobal while water temperature was around 28C at the time - Gulf of Mexico. However, Michael (Oct sun angle) intensified to CAT5 28-29C at that time. Dorian (late Aug sun angle) 30-31C at that time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_storms_Amanda_and_Cristobal Timing... August is warmer/hotter than June (Cristobal). Ocean is warmer and surface is humid- air parcels contain much more kinetic + potential energy, Lifting Index (land) (a much more meaning (than CAPE) for water surface ocean heat content), CAPE (not so much, but over land is a different story)... Keywords Google: ocean heat content and this website will come up where you can go back and find previous year history SST, Ocean Heat Content etc...

12z HWRF suggests this is going into GOM if that happens - MAJOR? HWRF says solution is INCONSISTENT ::: RECON? On the other hand NAVGEM has tight gradient suggesting also a major status...

About right and website is fast enough. https://earth.nullschool.net

Not sure how accurate this is... It is a good playground. https://earth.nullschool.net

Fred is notorious for typhoons/pacific side might not know well the Atlantic yet or the Caribbean!