Jet Stream Rider

This is what the 18z FV3 shows through Tuesday. looks to be 6-8 for most mountain areas.

I think so yes. I suspect the NHC will continue to make slight incremental changes to the cone and positions to account for the model run changes.

Its a good question downeastnc. 18Z GFS stalls in Onslow bay

Our site right here has an excellent model center: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/ And the Tropical Tidbits site is also very good: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Current Euro 12z ensemble members for reference

12z Euro - this amount of rain along with the storm surge will flood Wilmington. Folks should evacuate if unsure of their situation.

This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods.

This is the first Euro run since it nailed the NC hit on day 9 (day 10?) to show a loop-like motion similar to what the (admittedly) zany GFS has shown. Not the same, and still suppressed, but that stall near Wilmington and then the motion back down the coast a bit before heading west is similar.

I realize that. And I'm not talking about what I prefer, but rather maybe a slight good spot in an otherwise dreadful situation. Yes the flooding could be similar to what happened with Floyd. And that's the worst I have seen in downeast NC. Still both are true. I think the thing that surprised many people with Hugo, Fran and Hazel is that the fast forward motion brought the worst of the eyewall winds so far inland.

At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something.

I'm thinking the stall, if it happens soon enough will help a lot of inland folks because it would keep the buzz saw high winds of the eyewall from penetrating too far inland before Flo weakens.

Check date on that one. 1953?

After flirting with Ocracoke, it heads back down the coast to make landfall at Myrtle Beach on Sunday.

Current GFS loops it in the vicinity of Ocracoke Inlet

Would be nice were this the solution.

Thought this was an interesting read. Would be great if the stall could happen soon enough and keep this thing to our east. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Can't disagree with any of that. You would likely get eye or eyewall in Greenville with that solution.

Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday.

Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info! The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro.

Hello everyone and thanks for all the great posts! I wish we were tracking a nice snow event rather than this hurricane. For those that have not experienced this, take it seriously. I was in the decaying eye wall of Fran in central NC and it was the most chaotic weather conditions I have ever experienced. Got a tree on my roof. Its not a place you want to be unless you are well prepared with good shelter, food and alternative power generation. Where ever that eye wall goes as it disintegrates will be trouble. Good luck to everyone.

An amazing low pressure system. Just one section of its left "arm" stretches across half the east coast of the US. Interior sections did not do well with accumulations. And I suppose we should discuss the "Snow Hole" phenomena. It is certainly something more than just the urban heat island effect. Maybe something geographical? Strange.

We got the block, and its sitting right on top of us. Impressive large sprawling air mass.

It went boom alright, it just blew the **** up totally. lol We need something from the tropic of Capricorn region maybe.

That clipper entering Indiana/Ohio Valley region just now will get shredded by the mountains I know - but still might clip me for a flurry this evening!

Ought to get great ratios with the snow maker machine with this air mass :/ Dang it!