Jet Stream Rider

My goodness, after having problems completing its runs the past few days, the FV3 must have blown a gasket!

The global models may not be accounting for the CAD properly still. It can extend out to the coastal plain if the slp is indeed a slider and does not come up the coast.

Does anyone have insight as to why the FV3 has had problems loading the last couple of days? Bothersome when its supposed to go operational any day now, right?

Since the NAM is pretty good at modeling the CAD wedge here is a an animation showing the CAD becoming established via dewpoint on Saturday.

I agree with the cautionary statements at this lead. It is encouraging though to see the basic setup of strong-ish and cold high pressure suppressing a southern slider of a surface low pressure. And its certainly fun to track these potentials with all our fancy and evolving digital modeling. Obviously it should be no surprise if most of us end up with cold rain, but there is at this point still a chance for some frozen precip types. We will see. Enjoy the ride. At least we are out of hurricane season for now! Cheers everyone for another winter season.

In addition to those two 105's, I recall a 106 too I think at Cape Lookout. I'd like to see the officials too though to be sure.

They are currently under a tornado warning. Not seeing or hearing much about that locality specifically, but the whole of the area around Wilmington is in dire straits generally. Local reports and storm alerts: https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#AKQ,CAE,CHS,FFC,GSP,ILM,JAX,LWX,HUN,BMX,EYW,MHX,RAH,RLX,RNK,TAE,TBW,MRX,MLB,MFL/201809130400/201809160433/0110

Water vapor shows that southerly motion that seems evident on radar maybe is not system wide. It does look like that eye wall remnant might make it to Charleston though. Look at the expansive push from the north of that banana high pressure ridge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid

Southerly component to the movement is evident lately, past 3 or 4 hrs or so. Myrtle Beach in the remains of the eye at the moment, and the remnant eye wall to their west looks still to have some potency.

I think it likely that yes, it will stay north and west of Myrtle Beach. But its close and the way it can wobble, hard to say. The main point though is that it did not go directly south and back over water before turning west into MB as some models showed.

Looks to be close to the border just now. Although still in the Tar Heel state I think.

Florence at twilight this evening. Note the flareups near Cape Lookout that will rotate through downeast and central NC. Impressive hurricane.

I would think so. That's exactly where I would expect them. Let us know if you can.

Thanks for the explanation Grit. That helps. Euro is known to overdo wind speeds, kinda like the NAM is (or was) known to overdo QPF. Euro seems best at long range positions.

Dawn as Florence makes landfall.

^ However, ECMWF nailed the general location of landfall 9 days out, before Florence was even a hurricane.

It really did. Almost like its rolling down the coast there just north of Carolina Beach. Learned last night an old friend was riding it out at Carolina Beach. Hope he is OK. Might actually get into the eye.

Landfall Wrightsville Beach

As the eye contracts and collapses, Florence rolls along the coast and does appear to have a slight southward motion in the westward track. Eye wall onshore. Looks like landfall near Masonboro Island, between Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach is immanent.

Really has. Almost like its blown apart. Like an eye wall replacement and Florence is developing a huge eye.

Via radar, the eye wall appears to be very close to and closing on the Surf City area of Topsail Island.

Florence is taking a rather remarkable position in Onslow Bay.

That outer eyewall structure is stretched across most of the Onslow Bay beaches. That structure or band has hurricane force winds in it. The Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach area should be in it in an hour or so.

Report of sustained 75 and gust to 92 just east of due north Cape Lookout at station KNCDAVIS2

Looks like Cape Lookout and soon parts of Emerald Isle will be in what one could consider an outer eyewall.