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Jet Stream Rider

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  1. Jet Stream Rider
    Not sure. Can't see the Euro precip maps
  2. Jet Stream Rider
    0z Euro looks really accelerated
  3. Jet Stream Rider
    Euro at 48, the slp already south of Cape Lookout
  4. Jet Stream Rider
    Upper level feature still back in the vicinity of southern New Mexico. Wow. The system is really stretched out.
  5. Jet Stream Rider
    That trough means business. Thats a 1015 surface low pressure south of Houston now. About 6 hrs or so ahead of schedule I think.
  6. Jet Stream Rider
    You can see the low pressure forming in the western gulf current analysis; Surface frontogensis. Models show a slp in that area by 10z-12z.
  7. Jet Stream Rider
    I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe.
  8. Jet Stream Rider
    The RGEM will probably jump back east pretty quick, the slp moves around frame to frame in that rather large area of low pressure as the system organizes.
  9. Jet Stream Rider
    Quite the battle going on just now, a lobe of our big suppressing Canadian HP air mass and our SLP, looking impressive getting organised in the deep southwest. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  10. Jet Stream Rider
    Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.
  11. Jet Stream Rider
    Delayed onset for Raleigh north and east. Happy for the SC upstate folks though, looks like early onset and quite a pasting.
  12. Jet Stream Rider
    Impressive amount of moisture coming in off the Pacific into the southwest and feeding into our system as it begins to get organized. Once the vortex moves east and begins to tap the GoM, it looks to be substantial. The early finger is further east and south than I anticipated this morning. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  13. Jet Stream Rider
    Yes^ Thanks Grit. The Euro at 96 looks weird, just drops the low back south and east and the temps, why is there no 850 crash across the Carolinas as the low departs ots? Edit - it may just be the 24 hour intervals throwing me off.
  14. Jet Stream Rider
    1005 south of Hatteras. In the areas that stay frozen that would be a good bit of snow and sleet already down.
  15. Jet Stream Rider
    It is a bit early, but later in the run the low gets far enough north and just off the southern NC coast that the warm nose turns everything in the coastal plain and the eastern Piedmont to cold rain.
  16. Jet Stream Rider
    Preferably the low would be a little more suppressed, but still a very nice and rather rare setup
  17. Jet Stream Rider
    I think it could. My thinking is that once it is located in the gulf at a specific time, the models can adjust, and its a milestone in the evolution of the system. Looking at the energy now on the coast of southern California, it just looks so slow. Of course the surface low will form out front of it, and we need that surface low in the gulf or at least along the shoreline. For the forum members that want to see snow, we need it to stay suppressed. And I want to see if it is early or late to that point, and that will effect things down stream.
  18. Jet Stream Rider
    I want to see where and when the slp becomes established in the gulf as a marker and see what the models say then. That is supposed to happen around 12z Saturday. Right now the energy coming on shore in socal is so slow, I'm a little concerned it will go up the backside of the suppression.
  19. Jet Stream Rider
    That cold HP push looks stout to me, and it is a large scale feature. I think the wedge will be there for at least a good portion of the favored areas, and far out east as well. Then it will just depend on how far north the slp and ull go.
  20. Jet Stream Rider
    The NAM used to be biased heavy on qpf, but was adjusted and now maybe is biased a bit light, is that correct? I do think the level of that initial hit will be important, both the over running which may serve to only moisten the column, and the actual precip from the slp. Then we have the backside ull to deal with. Looks like a broken period of precip over 2 days rather than a continuous period of precip.
  21. Jet Stream Rider
    Looking at the real time movement of air masses, there is a big push south by the arctic air mass with accompanied upper level energy and you can see why this system is modeled to be suppressed. However the slp has yet to form in the gulf and we know it will want to press north with waa. Its unclear how this will resolve. Interesting to see how well the models do with it. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-10-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  22. Jet Stream Rider
    Our wave just now slowly crawling onshore southern California. The event could be 2 or 3 more-or-less separate periods of precip from Sunday - Tuesday as we get overrunning out ahead of this wave and the slp that will develop ahead of it as well. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
  23. Jet Stream Rider
    Its a good point Brick. However; remember that the models are forecast *guidance* and not an absolute representation of reality. And we have seen them be very wrong many times, as recently as last year. I hope we both get a foot though! Cheers.
  24. Jet Stream Rider
    If the surface low turns up the coast like most of them do, then yes there will be a warm nose well inland. If the slp is a slider, mainly moving east like has been modeled now for many days and the CAD is established, then there will likely be no substantial warm nose.
  25. Jet Stream Rider
    NAM dewpoints shows the wedge out to 84
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