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Jet Stream Rider

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  1. Jet Stream Rider
    This site is pretty good. https://climate.ncsu.edu/
  2. Jet Stream Rider
    Ended up with about 3 here. Looks like jackpot with this system was well south of here. We never got the frontogenesis across large areas of the state that the models showed, slp was weaker and further east and south. The shear from the st jet that gave us all the over-running early, hampered the coastal development I think. Nice marginal event though. One of the best snows for looking great in the trees in a while! Thanks for all the diligent tracking folks! Trees from the front yard:
  3. Jet Stream Rider
    The coastal slp (surface low pressure) will add an eastern component to the air flow for areas north of the slp. That can cause the eastward progression of the precipitation field to slow down, halt, and even fill-in in some cases - resulting in an apparent pivot of the precip shield. This is forecast to be a relatively weak low and developing relatively far off shore, hence why I say it likely will not affect anyone west of say Raleigh imo.
  4. Jet Stream Rider
    Thats the idea, looks to maybe be a bit too far east to do too much beyond the enhancement in downeast NC. We will have to see once it develops though. Still some variability and chances for folks for the next 6 hours or so.
  5. Jet Stream Rider
    Coastal SLP starting to develop now at 1014.
  6. Jet Stream Rider
    Had occasion to drive across town just now. Some accumulation on the roads now. Snowing light to moderate at 32.
  7. Jet Stream Rider
    Big flakes in light to moderate snow. dusting on vegetative surfaces. Down to 32.
  8. Jet Stream Rider
    Moderate snow now, 35. No accumulation
  9. Jet Stream Rider
    Mixed precip rn, ip, sn started here 20min ago in northeastern NC.
  10. Jet Stream Rider
    In the eyewall wow!
  11. Jet Stream Rider
    Frying Pan Shoals in the eyewall!
  12. Jet Stream Rider
    I know what you mean. I always double check myself for confirmation bias. But note the 5pm update moving NE rather than NNE as it has been up to now. We need every bit of E and less N that we can get. Possibly now will miss Cape Fear (actual landfall I mean of course). If it stays out of Pamlico Sound it will help just about everyone downeast.
  13. Jet Stream Rider
    Noticed that too and have been concerned. Possibly could be due to the interaction with the trough that is kicking it east. The deformation of the structure bringing down some of the upper level winds more effectively. Saw this last year on the back side remnant eyewall of the major that hit along the gulf as it exited northeastern NC. btw - Dorian just got a pretty swift kick, looks like it has taken on a more easterly component. Could really help us out! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-10-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  14. Jet Stream Rider
    Good morning and good luck to all downeast and coastal areas NC & SC. Looks like it will be hard to avoid a landfall by daybreak tomorrow.
  15. Jet Stream Rider
    0z GFS did not follow suit with a more inland pass downeast, but it is alarming that several of the other models show it. Here is an example from the 0z WRF-ARW2
  16. Jet Stream Rider
    There are at least two parts to it. The first part is the original west coast energy that spawned our slp (now off the NC coast), and that is being sheared as it traverses the mountains. The second part is dropping down the backside of the trough and the 2 will begin to interact.
  17. Jet Stream Rider
    HRRR 9z-15z Monday depiction - Thats tomorrow morning
  18. Jet Stream Rider
    HRRR did better with placement of transition zone and timing for my area.
  19. Jet Stream Rider
    Are you familiar with film maker Werner Herzog?
  20. Jet Stream Rider
    Noticed some models reacting to the original upper level energy crossing NC tomorrow as the late diving ull from Canada rounds the bend to our south. Some localized area blobs of hot pink color maxing the snow range on the legend.
  21. Jet Stream Rider
    Also; even with a well placed CAD with very cold air, it will hug the surface and the warm nose will flow right over it resulting in copious sleet or freezing rain. So yeah, the warm nose always wins if it is there at all.
  22. Jet Stream Rider
    Its a good question. My general thinking is that this situation is maybe not a great example of well placed CAD just because the air mass is marginal in its coldness. Also, warm noses are more pronounced with a vigorous slp that is sub 1K and is riding up the coastline. In that case you have strong east or southeast winds that bring an intense warm air temperature advection from the coastal flow. In this case with the slp being rather weak and having a more suppressed track with a more easterly trajectory, the warm nose is less pronounced and is more associated with the slp air mass itself rather than bringing in a massive amount of coastal air. My thinking, Mets or others please feel free to correct this.
  23. Jet Stream Rider
    This morning the NWS moved my county (Halifax) into the WSW area. I'm right on the edge of the piedmont, nothing but coastal plain to my east, so of course I expect a mix with sleet and rain. that initial hit though looks substantial. We have our slp just west of New Orleans this morning, here we go! Good luck everyone!
  24. Jet Stream Rider
    Free sites like Tropical Tidbits, Weathernerds, or Pivotalweather have only the free ECMWF products, other services like precip panels are pay only.
  25. Jet Stream Rider
    Basically every model every run, this thing comes in like a hammer. Radar looks it too.
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