Jet Stream Rider

This site is pretty good. https://climate.ncsu.edu/

Ended up with about 3 here. Looks like jackpot with this system was well south of here. We never got the frontogenesis across large areas of the state that the models showed, slp was weaker and further east and south. The shear from the st jet that gave us all the over-running early, hampered the coastal development I think. Nice marginal event though. One of the best snows for looking great in the trees in a while! Thanks for all the diligent tracking folks! Trees from the front yard:

The coastal slp (surface low pressure) will add an eastern component to the air flow for areas north of the slp. That can cause the eastward progression of the precipitation field to slow down, halt, and even fill-in in some cases - resulting in an apparent pivot of the precip shield. This is forecast to be a relatively weak low and developing relatively far off shore, hence why I say it likely will not affect anyone west of say Raleigh imo.

Thats the idea, looks to maybe be a bit too far east to do too much beyond the enhancement in downeast NC. We will have to see once it develops though. Still some variability and chances for folks for the next 6 hours or so.

Coastal SLP starting to develop now at 1014.

Had occasion to drive across town just now. Some accumulation on the roads now. Snowing light to moderate at 32.

Big flakes in light to moderate snow. dusting on vegetative surfaces. Down to 32.

Moderate snow now, 35. No accumulation

Mixed precip rn, ip, sn started here 20min ago in northeastern NC.

In the eyewall wow!

Frying Pan Shoals in the eyewall!

I know what you mean. I always double check myself for confirmation bias. But note the 5pm update moving NE rather than NNE as it has been up to now. We need every bit of E and less N that we can get. Possibly now will miss Cape Fear (actual landfall I mean of course). If it stays out of Pamlico Sound it will help just about everyone downeast.

Noticed that too and have been concerned. Possibly could be due to the interaction with the trough that is kicking it east. The deformation of the structure bringing down some of the upper level winds more effectively. Saw this last year on the back side remnant eyewall of the major that hit along the gulf as it exited northeastern NC. btw - Dorian just got a pretty swift kick, looks like it has taken on a more easterly component. Could really help us out! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-10-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Good morning and good luck to all downeast and coastal areas NC & SC. Looks like it will be hard to avoid a landfall by daybreak tomorrow.

0z GFS did not follow suit with a more inland pass downeast, but it is alarming that several of the other models show it. Here is an example from the 0z WRF-ARW2