SolidIcewx

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-greatlakes-refc_ptype-1645056000-1645120800-1645142400-10.gif hope the link works for the nam a 6 hour window

I wish for it to slow its role I like right where it’s at

Not sure where to put this but I’m curious to know the origins of this sun forum I know good chunk of y’all been around for awhile. I feel honored to be around such knowledge

They are gonna around here for sure. It’s all ice really

Glad to see them taking it a little more seriously

Expectations are for heavy snow impacting the Thursday Evening commute across the Detroit Metro Area and points south, as strong upper level wave comes out of southern Arizona and becomes absorbed within the strong southwest flow of the northern stream trough. Combined 6hr 500 MB height fall center looks to be tracking along the southern Michigan/northwest Ohio border, and favor heaviest band of snow along/just above 850 MB shear axis/fgen zone. Short duration (~21-3z) of the intense lift, but at least several hours of snowfall rates of 1+ inch/hr at any given location. Very sharp NW-SE moisture gradient in place, but still strong consensus of 4 g/kg in the 850-700 MB layer lingering around I-94 corridor in the early evening before aggressive drying then takes place for the rest of the evening and Thursday night. Despite the 12z Euro coming in rather progressive and unimpressive from a QPF perspective (compared to RAP/NAM), have elected to issue a winter storm warning for Detroit Metro Area and points south for 4-8" (especially after giving the 18z NAM a quick peak, which is very agressive). With the peak timing occuring during the Thursday evening commute, and some wind and drier snow on the back end, seems like this event will be highly impactful for travel concerns, especially if a layer of ice develops under the snow as well. Far southeast areas TTF-DET could still be under influence of the leftover marginal warm layer aoa 5000 feet to lead to sleet initially Thursday afternoon, which would cut down on snow amounts for those areas. On flip side, locations north of I-94 have chance to overachieve if snow to liquid ratios end up higher than forecast or if we are able to tap into the instability/negative EPV above the frontal zone indicated in cross sections. very interesting

Mostly for Detroit metro I’m curious as to why they don’t have impacts rated higher. Flash freeze, some freezing rain, a switch to snow then heavy snow potentially during the evening rush not to mention the winds cranking a bit

Not quite sure why they have little impacts from Fort Wayne up through DTW. Based off everything I’d say Major impacts especially in the Detroit metro with it being rush hour and later

Yeah that’s a dream. Snow rates would have to be 2” an hour at least. That would bring a lot of chaos around here too

You win on that one brother lmao. Looks like we need to get the ice skates out

Yeah shreks swamp here. Frozen just a 1/3 inch below

Road crews putting salt out on telegraph road in Taylor 4 miles east of DTW. Don’t matter with rain

I hope that trend stays where it’s at but I feel more SE then it is now. They are talking about 12:1 snow ratios maybe higher

That’s what I am praying for just not the ride to get my partner after she gets off at 830pm lol. Looking like I get to use 4WL

Yeah lots of things in effect. Morning going to work will be fine going home then picking up the lady will be the fun part

Frozen ground and about 4 where the sun did not hit

Should be fun once all that water freezes and snow is whipping around everywhere

Link?

Damn right it is. Intoxicated on the job

I know right. I’m praying for little ice don’t want those winds mixing with even moderate accumulation

Gfs and nam smoking with snoop dogg

Detroit Nws passing off winter storm watches off to the overnight. I agree that local stations around here downplaying but rightfully so. As I read into it more they did admit that amounts could be well underdone

I know this is off topic but what is a good paid site for models? I know about PW but want to know what some Mets are using. Anyways being this close to the event and so much difference’s going to be interesting to see what local Mets are saying around here. Will be fun ride home from work Thursday