SolidIcewx

That’s a hell of a clash

Got a link?

Tornado warning on that Illinois cell

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 731 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Ionia County in south central Michigan... Northeastern Barry County in southwestern Michigan... Northwestern Eaton County in south central Michigan... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 731 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Freeport, or near Hastings, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. and it’s still producing hail like crazy

Storm is..

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 548 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Allegan County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 548 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of Fennville, or 9 miles northeast of South Haven, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Rotation in the storm over Lake Michigan about to come on shore towards South Haven MI. Lake not doing shit to it apperently

SPC AC 041729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a risk for strong tornadoes and large hail are expected in a corridor across eastern Illinois through Lower Michigan Wednesday, with organizing clusters or lines of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes across the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Recent water-vapor imagery continues to depict a robust upper wave over the central Rockies with an accompanying surface low noted in mid-morning surface observations across the central Plains. Guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of these features over the next 48 hours as the upper wave ejects into the Plains and the surface low tracks northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. A trailing cold front is expected to impinge on a broad warm sector beginning late tonight as it migrates southeast through the Midwest, mid-MS River Valley, and TX Gulf coast through the day Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along much of the cold front, and more organized cells and/or clusters may persist into the afternoon hours given the strongly sheared environment and diurnal warming/destabilization. Locations that see weakening of early-morning convection will likely see re-intensification either along the cold or residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon. Given the broad warm sector (featuring 60+ F dewpoints) and strong flow over the region, organized convection appears likely across a large swath of the Midwest to south-central CONUS. One notable trend for this update is a westward shift in probabilities driven by a slower eastward progression of the synoptic wave/surface low that has consistently emerged in recent global and mesoscale guidance. ...IL to OH and lower MI... Confidence in the severe threat remains highest across portions of the Midwest. Open warm sector convection may be ongoing by 12 UTC across parts of eastern MO/IL and will propagate into parts of IN, OH, and lower MI through the day. Poleward moisture advection in the wake of morning convection will maintain a buoyant air mass prior to the frontal passage in the late morning/afternoon when a second round of storms appears likely. The combination of the mid-level jet max aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient winds will result in a strongly sheared environment featuring effective bulk shear values near 50s knots and 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. This kinematic environment will support a tornado threat, including the potential for a strong tornado, especially if more discrete storm modes can be realized (though it is unclear if boundary-relative storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be sufficient to maintain discrete modes given considerable along-boundary mean flow). Regardless, the strong low-level flow will support the potential for damaging to severe winds. ...Middle MS and lower OH River Valleys... Forcing for ascent along the middle MS and lower OH River Valleys is expected to diminish through the day as stronger synoptic ascent becomes increasingly displaced to the north/northeast. Strong flow aloft on the southern periphery of the jet max will support elongated hodographs, which when coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and residual ascent along the slowing cold front, will likely be favorable for semi-discrete cells to clusters with an attendant threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Moore/Jewell..

Baseball season started get your bats out

I remember a MDT risk area a few years back but the line of storms fizzled as it got east of AA. The Sig Tor has my eyes and ears perked

It definitely does. If it plays out good I might even go chase and leave work early. It’s been awhile since we had a big boy around here which concerns me with how people would react to an actual supercell moving thru. I don’t blame DTX holding off the trigger till tomorrow. I hope crapvection is done by mid morning so the atmosphere can can more unstable

0C line moving farther and farther north

Even tho NAM has not been the greatest in the last bit. They won’t call anything significant until tomorrow if it plays out

Are there any analogs I can read into for Wednesdays event? It does concern me with the sig tornado area. Not sure how Detroit metro would react if a strong long tracked tornado came thru. Something I’ve thought about for years

What a morning read for tomorrow for the MI/IN,OH area. Tomorrow it’s going to be interesting not very often you get a hatched area over this part of the country. Also the fact that there is still room for upgrade in severe probabilities. Last MDT for SE Michigan was a bust on the very east side if I remember correctly

A- 90% This winter had its nice share of storms. The Christmas arctic blast to start. Then a series of heavy wet snows along with an ice storm in there to top it off. Honestly made for amazing pictures as stated above. As someone who works outside and with the trees I took it all it and enjoyed it as much as I could. Having cakes trees multiple times was a nice different touch as well. Finally the last factor for my rating is since I’m outside a lot the mild weather has made it more effective of me to get more of my work done. It is a shame we could not keep a snow pack but the warmer temps made it more enjoyable also.

Ice on top of what you have is definitely going to be a nuisance. Hopefully the power lines up there are not too far from the roads so crews can restore power if needed

Temps going into the Mid 70s now north of DTW where I live. Hump day looks to be a thump day

Temps are falling like a rock. Went from 54-44 the last hour imby. Curious to see what my rain gauge says

What would the statistics be for March starting out like a lion and going out like a lion too for this area? A fun question persay

I woke up to these storm I’m pleasantly surprised. Storms last night and this morning it’s getting a real spring feel

Nice band developed right overhead

56/52 imby with a damn good light show. Quite the dynamics even over here can only imagine what it’s like out west

That’s the one on track to possibly go over me