MJO812

Apparently the cfs now looks good for January.

3rd low near Christmas

Take it with a grain of salt. I think the attacks on the PV is messing with the models.

ALL indoor dining will be closed in NYC starting Monday. Takeout and outdoor dining can continue. Gyms and barbershop might be next Here we go again

Yep. I was home from Binghamton for winter break and was watching how they got hammered. 6 weeks later I was home for Presidents day weekend and decided to return back to school early to avoid PDII. That Christmas 2002 storm was a nightmare for many people. The forecast was for rain turning to a little snow with temps in the 40s. Christmas Eve started out as rain which lasted through Christmas morning. The rain then quickly changed to heavy wind driven snow as temps plummeted into the upper 20s. At the time I didnt track the weather. I got all my info from TWC. Paul Kocin was on and he stated how the storm was bombing out quicker than modeled. I ended up with 6 inches

The PV taking a hit most likely has to do with the NAO and AO going negative

2002

Christmas miracle on the gfs even though it shows rain. Big coastal storm.

Thanks to blocking Not comparing this to 2010-2011 but that's how we got 60 inchds of snow during the strong la Nina winter until February hit.

Eps mean is very favorable This is still a weak away

Alot of sleet near the coast but a big storm

High latitude blocking starts before 200 hours. Do you think the blocking is legit this time ? What is your take on the mid month storm ?

Nice high latitude blocking on the gefs

Vortex split on the Euro according to Webb

Nice signal for a coastal on the GEPS and EPS

Yep Sticking pretty good on colder surfaces in Bay ridge

34 now and snowing here in Brooklyn Starting to stick to cars and grassy areas

35 with snow here in Brooklyn

Light snow here in Brooklyn 36 here

Weenies should look at the cmc for midnight

Yes for a brief time but usually it dominates throughout the whole winter in La Nina years.

We do have chances this month but I rather be inland than on the coast. We shall see but the pattern like you said should really improve by January.

We will be fine if the teleconnection stay like this along with the epo going negative. Hopefully the blocking which Allsnow alluded to this morning on the ensembles in the long range move up in time.