MJO812

I remember dropping down to 0 in 2013-2014. There were also epo events during January.

I got ugatz last night

The models did show 4-8 inches for NYC even the same morning .

Those dates are some analogs for this winter

Every model has the mid month threat. Let's do this

It's a nice sight to see the models delaying the warmth . This is way different than last winter. Gfs is also cold with alot of chances of snow going forward.

Mjo is going to stall out in phase 2

The MJO stalls in 2. It was supposed to travel into 3 but now its not.

Guess where I live

Eric Webb thinks his long range warmth call will fail. I'll definitely be the first to admit, the idea of a break in the pattern over the CONUS ~ Dec 10-25 that several people & including myself had on here is going to bust horribly. Details regarding the cyclonic wave break in the Gulf of Alaska make all the difference in the world. A more equatorward & negatively tilted CWB leads to a huge ridge in NW North America and dislodges a piece of the TPV sitting north of the Baffin Bay >>> major arctic outbreak ~ Dec 10-11. Given the active storm track we'll have around & following this period, it's hard not to be at least a little excited about renewed opportunities for wintry weather. Patterns like this can even get my neck of the woods in the action. This was a huge LR bust by myself but I honestly couldn't be happier about it. I'm beyond sick & tired of mild Decembers around here.

Looks like a brief warmup on all the models

Brief warmup and then hopefully we got back to winter.

The ensembles are also getting colder. Warm december forecasts might be in trouble.

And gfs

Still snowing here in Brooklyn. It has been snowing since 1pm yesterday. Very long duration storm. The city would have gotten at least over 6 inches if temps were colder.

That was a cold Miller B

Congrats guys Barely anything down here

Friend in Staten Island got 4 inches on the ground. Parts of LI is seeing heavy snow now and will continue to.

Gfs has 2-4 more inches for NYC and 4-6 for LI LOL

NYC should get into some heavier snow soon

I can retire in 18 years.

Maybe

It's not that easy out there. Thank god I have great health and dental insurance with GHI. Working for the city has benefits.

He has 2 inches over there.

O well what can you do