MJO812

They are a disaster

Larry Cosgrove Why the storm on Halloween Week is so important.... As the ECMWF series seems to be falling in with the potentially dire GFS outline for a major East Coast storm the week of Halloween, I thought it smart to discuss what the big deal is if the disturbance verifies. 1) With a fairly amplified +PNA alignment at 500MB, the chance for a great deal of polar air from Canada to cover the eastern half of the country is very high. The nocturnal frost line Oct 31 - Nov 2 could reach down to the Interstate 40 cities, east of the Rocky Mountains. 2) This system will NOT be a major snow maker. Most of the energy and moisture with the combinant (tropical + cold core) system will be along and to the right of the storm track, which I suspect will be quite close to the Atlantic shoreline above Norfolk VA. There could be some snow shower/squall threats in the Great Lakes and Appalachia, however. 3) While it is too soon to determine likely pressure and wind elements with this feature, the consistency of the GFS series for the development and general motion of low pressure from the Caribbean Sea is startling. A blend of the 1991 and 2012 oceanic storm analogs remains viable. 4) If this gyre does form, it will NOT be an indicator of what the upcoming winter will be like. It is just too early!

Very interesting that the models keep showing a possibility of a tropical low coming up here with snow on the backside for the far interior.

Gfs is still showing snow for the interior after the possible tropical low gets out of the way

Euro vs gfs

Under 200 we should start to take it seriously. Seeing the models keep showing a low or 2 coming out of the Carribean is noteworthy.

True

Weenie land

I love weenies

Uh? Trough is heading east

Southeast hit?

Euro cooking up something

Euro cooking up something

Yep I remember that

The CFS shows snow to the coast also. It is usually a curse for the winter so hopefully it doesn't happen. The models keep showing a tropical system either coming up the coast or just offshore. Have to keep an eye.

Snow in Maine this weekend ?