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MJO812

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Everything posted by MJO812

  1. MJO812
    Upton already all in for down here Upton all in Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track. NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45 mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at least near blizzard conditions. Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu, with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W to E through the day. Fair and cold Thu night into Sat with high pressure returning, then some moderation possible with an approaching frontal system. Too early to get into precip type details with this system, just calling it mainly rain/snow at this juncture
  2. MJO812
    Upton all in Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track. NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45 mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at least near blizzard conditions. Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu, with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W to E through the day. Fair and cold Thu night into Sat with high pressure returning, then some moderation possible with an approaching frontal system. Too early to get into precip type details with this system, just calling it mainly rain/snow at this juncture
  3. MJO812
    Tick north
  4. MJO812
    Gfs keeps chasing the blob of precip
  5. MJO812
    Once again
  6. MJO812
    Very cold everywhere
  7. MJO812
    It shows sleet at 81 hours with temps below freezing lol
  8. MJO812
  9. MJO812
  10. MJO812
    He also trolled us in Dec 2010 when the Euro lost the Boxing Day storm.
  11. MJO812
  12. MJO812
    30 inches here
  13. MJO812
    Time to break out the SREF. It has been a while.
  14. MJO812
    Time to break out the SREF. It has been a while.
  15. MJO812
    Yea but majority as it gets closer to us has shifted east
  16. MJO812
    Members are east of the 6z and 0z runs.
  17. MJO812
    I'm on break tracking the models. I already warned my co workers about a possible snowstorm.
  18. MJO812
    Haven't checked them in years but I will post the 15z when they come out.
  19. MJO812
    Playing with his hose
  20. MJO812
    Holy cannoli Amazing for an ensemble mean
  21. MJO812
    I was tracking the 2016 blizzard in Atlantic city. I pulled over to a rest stop to check the serfs and it was showing 2 inches of liquid for NYC. That was the start of a north trend .
  22. MJO812
  23. MJO812
    The euro has an amped bias, not a suppressed one. The GFS usually has a suppressed bias
  24. MJO812
    Legit blizzard conditions on the Euro for many on the coast.
  25. MJO812
    Wow
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