MJO812

Why is it unlikely ?

Larry Cosgrove Beware of warmer, calmer forecasts this week and next. I make this remark because many of the numerical models cannot correctly figure what will happen in situations where stronger high-latitude blocking ridges exist, concurrently with an equally impressive subtropical jet stream. The evolution of a Bering Sea and Greenland/Iceland couplet ridging is well underway. Positive height anomalies in those positions favor the formation of cold 500MB vortices in Alberta and below Newfoundland. The USA result is that colder than normal temperatures are probable in all but Texas and the Dixie states. Climatology for this type of event allows for stronger cold frontal passages through the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard above Interstate 40. With the active southern branch adding energy, there can be phased events off of the Mid-Atlantic shoreline. Much like what the GGEM panels show December 20-22. Not only is there the chance for a rogue snow event then (along and west of the major cities), but warm-ups will be hard to maintain. I suspect that another risk for an important precipitation event may occur between Christmas and New Year's. That cold pool setting up east of Sable Island NS creates a window for redevelopment, which could be especially potent if the subtropical jet stream energy joins in the fray. Be very careful when handling cold air and storm transitions over the next two or three weeks. Note that the heat ridge complex in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida gets suppressed after this week!

I follow him on Twitter Very knowledgeable

Hopefully the weeklies are right If so then we will have plenty of chances in the upcoming weeks.

Why is Bluewave giving you a weenie for posting the eps?

Yes sir You are missing the NAO, AO and EPO.

NAO goes negative and stays negative for the rest of the month on the eps starting at the end of this week.

NYC is an awful place to live for winter weather.

Can this trend in our favor or do we want this little storm to trend north so the big storm is also north ?

The more south this is the south the bit storm is ?

Gfs is way south at 6z for the 21st Eps doesn't look bad at all

Still trending I think we will be fine

Gfs is way south at 6z Eps doesn't look bad at all

Until the Euro and GFS ensembles comes on board and we get several runs in a row of consistency confidence will increase IMO Agree! Cmc was just upgraded

Cmc

Check out the cmc

Cmc similar to gfs

Similar to gfs Heavy snow inland and coastal hugger

Philly also gets crushed

Yep and check out snj lol

Nice storm but warm for the coast. Signal is strong for some type of storm.

Gfs coming in with a coastal storm for the 21