I'm not being positive right now
I know people are hesitant because of how fickle the long range is but the blocking is actually moving up in time. We go through this every year.
Do you and others on here ignore what the pattern is depicting or just trolling ?
Yes its warm now but there are indications of a change to colder and more wintry weather.
A ridge will most likely pop in the west once we get to phase 8.
Modeling have been atrocious for everything ( pattern , storms ).
See what the gfs does with the Christmas threat ? It merges it with the 21st threat because of the block.
Yes if we want to see a big snowstorm. I think the models will correct to a positive pna once the MJO hits phase 8 which should be at the end of this month.
That low was once modeled to go further north. Will be too late for us but this is the beginning of the NAO pattern.
We will see our fun once the block gets better established.