Every RIMM plot this morning has the MJO in phase 7 by the 15th and no model has a torch after day 1 to day 5. It's all low amp that's ends day 15 ( near N to plus 1 ( maybe plus 1 to 2 at best)
90 hours is tomorrow? I guess we haven't learned from past winters where models can't get storms right a few days out.
We aren't even sure yet if we are dealing with one or two waves.
Interior areas of NY and New England .
It's about timing. There will be enough cold air for everyone to at least see some flakes if the track is right.
I favor interior areas of NY, interior SNE and New England if there is a phase.
The RIMMS have had a sub 1 SD look to it from a week ago. The speed is the same
There a 4 day trough in the middle where some may snow next week like I stated above. Then it's a low amp pass That said they are in 7 before the 20th , Not January .
The convection is spread out .The reason it speeds through is because it follows the wave.
It's why no model is higher than a 1amp.
Come back to us when you see a 3sd because then you know that we will be in trouble.
As of right now it's go time for late December but things can change like we saw in the past.