MJO812

Good write-up but I doubt you will get a warmup when the MJO goes into 8. Watch the models trend colder like they did with this upcoming period ahead next week.

Euro is also close. Need the PV to squash the heights.

Thats not the point. The point is that many were posting how mild it is going to be. We just saw on the 12z runs how different they are with the warmup for early December. They look good for early December. How do you know what the storm track will be ? All we can do is track it but a favorable pattern is coming up as the mjo heads into 8 in December. Alot of doubters on here. Its fine but at least admit when posters claim its going to be warm but then it turns out cold.

Huh ? There's pages in here on how December 1- 7 was supppsed to way above normal with southeast ridge. We are seeing the models take a step back with the warmth. There is no need to worry about 2 weeks from now when the models cant even get next week right .

Euro

Euro has also trended colder in the mid range

Euro has also trended colder

Just like that the warmup is gone during the 1st week of December on the gfs thanks to the negative epo

1 run but the gfs showed what a negative epo can do.

Better PV press on the gfs for next week. Like I said , the models have been way too warm in the long range only to get cooler as time goes on.

Its the truth. Look how the models are getting colder again in the mid range. Truth hurts for some of you.

PV is dipping further south on the gfs. Overrunning looking interesting during the 1st week of december.

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The south east ridge shouldn't be strong.