Iceresistance

The Cicada Army is coming there, it's been taking over National headlines, there are estimates that there are 'Trillions' to emerge this year, good luck finding earphones for this year . . . I have the Yearly Cicadas & they are LOUD!

I was looking at the soundings & I found these from the 18z NAM model: Near Tecumseh, OK Near Norman, OK

The SPC did put out the marginal risk for that reason, the uncertainty for storms is just too high . . . Many lower risk days have been over-performing lately, should this be next? I doubt it, but Never say Never with Weather! EDIT: Well, the Dryline is showing itself in NW Texas & SW Oklahoma . . .

The STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is just too low across Oklahoma & Texas . . . This 12z GFS model sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +12 hours proves why this might be a tough forecast . . . EDIT: This sounding is likely contaminated, the bars are shooting off to the right . . .

For me, it's the Erratic Behavior of Supercells, they can suddenly stall, change direction or speed up . . . I once tracked a Supercell that went over Norman in 2020 (Last Year) & it was projected to die away near Pink, OK because of unfavorable environment, but it literally STALLED over Norman & dumped very heavy rain in the City because it did NOT want to die & likely shoved the instability so it can move again (I fell asleep after it stalled over Norman because it was after 9 PM . . .) The Hobart Supercell in April was a very good example of erratic movement, it once blew up over Texas & headed NE, but when it headed for Hobart, it literally went from NE to E in just a few minutes! They seem to act like they have a mind of their own!

This is my first Forum & Post here, but there is a chance for severe weather across Kansas, Far Southern Nebraska, & into Missouri with up to Tennis Ball sized hail in Kansas, up to 70 mph winds, and a Tornado threat . . . It's May, & severe weather season is in full swing!