ATDoel

I think Mississippi might take the crown there, but only just. I've also noticed our peak tornado season has shifted to March, where historically it's usually been more in April.

I'm wondering the same thing, regardless always listen to the SPC and your local NWS!

Day 2 high risk, when has that ever happened before?

I can't say I agree with you here considering that before our last Super Outbreak, 4/27/2011, we weren't aware it was going to be a super outbreak just the day before it occurred. Storm Prediction Center Apr 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook we didn't even get a 45% tornado risk area until the middle of the day on 4/27/2011. To play devil's advocate here, what do you think happens tomorrow if none of those failure modes materialize? While I think it would be irresponsible to call for a super outbreak on any given event this far out, I feel like it's also irresponsible to suggest that we have the ability to be absolutely certain when an event will or won't be a super outbreak a this stage of the forecast..

Everyone crying about the models need to grow up, you sound like a bunch of spoiled children. The facts are this storm was sniffed out 10 days before genesis, it most likely will have significant impacts to a larger number of people. If you expected the models to perfectly verify at your local level several days before the event, you need to get your expectations checked. We watch and discuss these storms several days out because it’s fun, if it isn’t fun for you than maybe you need another hobby.

Yeah for the Canadian models, GDPS is the global model, RDPS (RGEM) is the regional model, HRDPS is the hi res model.

King NAM missed the last event for us big time, even within 24 hours

GFS uptrend, UK downtrend, I'll take that trade any day!

no... please, no, no, no. I rather a foot of snow than that.

I mean, when does it actually beat the GFS and Euro? Seems to almost always be the model that's out, looking in.

Isn't the Canadian almost always an outlier?

That's odd, the Kuchera is showing more snow than the 10:1, why is that? Usually it's the opposite.

What does it look like for Birmingham, similar?

man I would love to see how the models are handling this system vs the last one this far out

No, why would you want a 15' raised slab? Build the house on piers, leave the slab on grade. You can install break away walls on the ground floor so the house will "look" fairly normal and you'll even have some usable space down there. Keep all the main parts of the house on the 2nd floor on top of the first floor assembly and you're good to go. Surge comes in, your walls break away around your garage, damage is minimal, house survives. Easy, it just cost a bit more to build this way and you become more limited in your architecture.

absolutely incorrect. You can build homes that are essentially surge proof. You sink reinforced concrete piers into the bedrock, raise the first floor above the surge zone, and install break away walls on the ground level. As long as you keep your utilities above the surge zone, even a catastrophic flood would do minimal damage to a house built this way. What you can't do is build a normal slab on grade home and expect it to survive storm surge.

Ian has put its foot down, landfall looks like it'll be within the hour just north of Charleston.

building codes absolutely work. You can always sink piers deeper and raise the first floor higher if you're trying to keep a building safe from storm surge. You can always reinforce roofs and walls so they can withstand cat 5 winds. It just takes more money, but really not THAT much more. I do firmly believe that any building in a surge prone area should have to be self insured though.

This is my biggest problem with the way the NHC/MEDIA informs the public on hurricanes. You always hear "forecasted to make landfall at xxxx location at xxxx wind speed". People don't have the patience or understanding to look at the cone or listen to a forecast discussion about possible strengthening beyond the forecast intensity. I would much rather the forecast to be simply to read out the locations within the cone of uncertainty, and to give percentages on possible strength at landfall. If they know they can't predict the exact landfall location and strength at landfall, they need to stop telling people that information like they can.

what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core? I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at?

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point? Definitely looks extratropical.

population control, I'm all for it

Low tide was midnight, hightide is 6 pm, we're closer to hightide than lowtide. The difference here isn't much though, like a foot and a half

his live feed went dead after he broke into someone's house on the ocean.... he might be dead

new recon has just reached Ian's CDO, we should be getting an eye penetration in the next 30 minutes or so