George001

Some will disagree and blame x y and z for why December wasn’t very snowy, but I would gladly roll the dice with the look we had. Just because it didn’t snow as much as I would have liked doesn’t mean there was something fundamentally wrong with the pattern that meant it COULDNT snow. It comes down to probability, the month of December will average slightly BN temp wise, and we had persistent western ridging. In my opinion that was plain old bad luck. Sure, it’s possible to have an extended run of bad luck, but claiming that just because we got unlucky in December or past years means it’s more likely something will go wrong again is bad logic. The probability this upcoming pattern will produce is what it is, what happened in the past doesn’t change that.

Yep. Ultimately what matters is it’s going to get cold. Small windows of opportunity sandwiched between warmth doesn’t do anything for me, because even if it does snow it will melt fast. If the Jan 6-7th wave moves north and gives us even a couple of inches, it’s possible we don’t see grass for the rest of January. Even if that doesn’t pan out, if the long range guidance is correct we will have a large window of opportunity like Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Feb 2013, Mar 2018 etc. Not every storm will hit, suppression is definitely a risk especially with the first threat but if you have 3-4 weeks of BN temps the probability you get hit with big snows is much higher. Sure, it could be cold and dry like December but I’ll roll the dice with this look. I’m probably going to get weenied for this, but I would rather roll the dice with this look than the one we got in Jan 2022 (and that was a VERY snowy month here).

NYC is just far enough north that they do well (not as well as SNE though) in strong miller b nor’easters such as Jan 2015, Feb 2013, Dec 2020, etc. In our best storms where we get 2+ feet NYC gets 6-12 while DC, Baltimore and anywhere south of them get rain.

For my area I don’t mind NYC weenies being excited about the pattern because often they do well when SNE does well, but when weenies in the southern mid Atlantic and Deep South are excited that’s not a good thing. I want them to rain.

In strong El Niños. This is a La Niña.

the gfs has a 967mb low over the cape. Holy shit

No AN temps through Feb 9th. If right, that’s a real window. None of that bullshit 1 week of opportunity sandwiched between +4 to +5 AN temps.

No AN temps through Feb 9th. Late Jan-early Feb is warmer than the early-mid Jan period but it’s still plenty cold enough for snow with a Nina gradient pattern look developing towards the end.

I like the setup for the 6-7th, miller b potential

I was skeptical of La Niña myself, but things change. ENSO 3.4 is at -0.8 on the weeklies, this isn’t a projection thing anymore. La Niña is here and will likely play a role in the upcoming January pattern. It’s not moderate, but it doesn’t need to be to influence the pattern.

I would have gotten sucked in by a threat like this a few years ago, but now I know better to not use 10:1 snow maps in these marginal setups. Accumulated positive snow depth tells the story, snow confined to the mountains, not much accumulation for us living at sea level. Im expecting mostly rain and maybe a bit of non accumulating snow at the end here, what interests me is what happens after that storm passes.

I was calling for a January torch in my winter forecast, thats one of the reasons why I put said forecast on bust watch last night.

Interestingly, weak La Ninas are snowier than ENSO neutral for my area. So I’m glad to see that La Niña development has progressed during December.

After looking at some long range indicators more closely, I am officially putting all winter forecasts calling for a mild and below normal snow winter on BUST watch. I’m not saying this to throw shade, I went warm and below normal snow myself. I’m doing this because I’m already seeing signs that the key assumptions I made when looking at analogs are going to be wrong. The PDO is barely negative now, my forecast called for a moderate to strong -PDO. December has been a cold month, even with the late month relaxation period it will finish slightly BN temp wise. I thought December would be warm.

My winter forecast is officially on bust watch. Why? -The PDO has risen significantly, went from -3 in October to -0.7 now in late December. My forecast called for a moderate to strongly negative PDO. -My ENSO call was for cold neutral, looks like we are getting a late developing weak central based La Niña instead. -December has been much colder than I expected.

It wasn’t Dec 2010 or anything where we got buried with snow, but I have 0 issues with how this month played out. It actually feels like winter and we are going to have our first white Christmas in almost a decade here.

I looked at the 500mb pattern a bit closer now that the storm is over, and I’m a bit torn. The surface temps are not as cold as I would like, but that’s a stormy pattern. The long range 500mb pattern looks like a favorable Niña pattern with the poleward Alaskan ridging but with a Nino STJ. The key will be getting enough cold air and avoiding the dreaded south based block. My gut feeling is the first week of Jan isn’t cold enough but the second week is a different story. It’s an interesting look regardless.

Eyeballing 4-5 inches, looks like a white Christmas is happening this year.

A big reason we didn’t get a widespread 6-12 like the NAM this morning said was snow ratios. Those snow maps assume 10:1 ratios, I went outside and was able to successfully make a snowball. That’s when I realized there wasn’t any real shot I break 6 inches. If you can successfully make a snowball, the snow ratios are 6:1 at most, often even lower. Still a good event though, probably going to end up with 3-4 inches when the storm is done. That’s a hell of a lot better than the dusting I expected.

It’s coming down pretty good now. Eyeballing around 2 inches or so.

I have my shovel ready

Snow is starting to stick to roads here

Adam, although we have seen additional cooling over the past couple of weeks, the La Niña will end up being fairly weak overall. The pattern has not really been very Nina like so far this December, and we are actually seeing guidance show an active STJ for early Jan. While I do agree that we will see a pattern shift as the Nina peaks (recent trends have opened the door for this to peak as a weak Nina, similar to 08-09), my early thoughts are we could see more of a stormy north/south gradient type pattern rather than a full on east torch especially if the STJ remains active. The seasonal guidance shows this with both the temp and precip distribution for Jan-Mar (though Jan is warm everywhere, likely due to the first couple of weeks before the transition from a strong nino like pattern to a Nina one). What are your thoughts?

I like how things look on the radar and OBS. It’s currently snowing out, already have a coating.

Even the CMC is more aggressive than the 1-2 I’m being forecasted. It gives me 4-5 inches or so.