George001

I’m not giving up yet but need to see only improvements from here. It’s close enough to the event that you don’t really want to see any steps back.

Gefs still on board despite the OP looking like shit.

It will be very disappointing if the Euro is right. I have been waiting long enough, I want my goddamn blizzard!

Agreed. I like that the gfs doubled down, but want to see the Euro join the party tonight. It’s a very complicated setup.

I like seeing snows fairly close to the coast despite an unfavorable low track. Shows that we have some room for error here.

im not sure, but the low is south due to the energy getting buried out west.

On another forum I’m on they have access to the Euro and unfortunately it isn’t good news. The Euro buried the energy once again.

I’d like to see the Euro bump north tonight with the low

I’d rather have a repeat of March 2017 than this. Hopefully the Euro is more north.

The issue with 21-22 is that was more of an east based La Niña. This is a modoki La Niña with the core of the cold focused west, while the eastern ENSO regions have warmer anomalies. So although 21-22 isnt a bad match for strength, I would say 08-09 and 16-17 are better ENSO analogs due to how they developed (modoki rather than east based).

EPS also made a big jump NW. Very strong signal

967mb low stalls about 50 miles NW of the benchmark

Yeah I don’t expect either of us to be the bullseye in this type of setup, that will likely be NW of us. I would rather this than another southern slider though, decent snows on the front end before going over to mix and or rain. If I get 6 inches and 20 miles NW gets 2 feet, so be it. The ski areas need the snow anyways. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a low track 25-50 or so miles SE of where the GFS has it.

Feb 2021 and March 2017 are decent analogs

I like seeing both the gfs and Euro ejecting more energy. But there are a couple things telling me to pump the breaks here. This isn’t a classic setup, it’s too thread the needle for my liking. It’s unfortunate the 6th got squashed because the airmass was a lot better for that one. 1. The western ridge axis is too far west 2. The airmass is marginal, leaving less room for error in terms of a coastal hugger track. If there is a storm, ptype issues are a very real concern for the coast.

That’s fair, the setup definitely doesn’t look as good on the ensembles as it did a few days ago. I don’t like the orientation of the western ridge axis on the ensembles, ideally that would be more north-south than SW-NE. Hopefully something can break our way, it would be a shame to waste all this cold with no precip.

The 6th is dead but I’m not giving up on the 10-11th. Guidance is still way offshore but we have seen some positive trends the past few runs of the gfs. The gfs is ejecting more energy out west. Need that trend to continue.

In the other forum im on i am seeing mass panic from mid Atlantic weenies in the main thread. I like seeing that, I hope they rain! Lets get this fucker another 200 miles north.

Get that energy out west on the 18z gfs to eject quicker and it’s game on for the second threat. Good signal for the 10-11th.

For the 11th threat, we continue to see the models flip flop. The most recent runs have the energy buried out west so it never gets out ahead of the northern energy, leading to an out to sea solution. Yesterday had a 951 MB low plowing into NNE on the gfs. It will continue to go back and forth over the next week. I don’t want to see the low plowing into NNE, but I am hoping the models converge on the solutions where the energy is ejected faster so we have a shot. That’s a legitimate big storm potential. If that storm gets buried out west the cold and dry idea will end up being correct, and we will have to wait until mid month and beyond. As for the 6th…. I’m not holding out any hope for that one with confluence modeled over New England. Just no room for that low to come up the coast.

It’s possible we get nothing, but the large scale features argue for an increased probability of big snows in January. If we get unlucky and whiff on every threat so be it, but I like my chances. Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances with precip.

Yeah it was, I wanted to challenge him to a duel so bad but as much as I don’t like the guy, he was right. I realized mid argument that my reading comprehension failed me (he said WITH THIS 500mb it can’t trend 150+ miles north, which is true. If the 500mb changes it’s a different story). I knew I was wrong, but I was in too deep so I doubled down anyways, also the guy was being annoying about it. Unfortunately, that guy wasn’t being unreasonable enough to justify challenging him to a duel.

I have a confession to make: I briefly went off the deep end again and nearly challenged someone to a duel on another forum. I caught myself and snapped out of it. But holy shit Mid Atlantic weenies….. they literally drive me insane.

Yeah confluence over NYC isn’t going to cut it.

From what I’ve seen over the years of tracking guidance struggles the most in NS dominant La Niña patterns and blocking patterns. This is a very complicated setup with lots of moving parts. Nothing is locked in at this range, hell even 3 days out I wouldn’t be confident in a solution in this pattern.