George001

I continue to stand with the Pope on this one.

Great start to 0z.

Yeah it did, I was kinda pissed when that one skunked my area, but that didn’t last. The next storm alone more than made up for the entire first half of winter, then we all know what happened. That truly was a once in a lifetime winter. Anyways, how are you feeling about this one? I like where we are at with this. There is a decent amount of support for a moderate event right now on guidance, with some upside if things break right.

That kickoff system was modeled as a 12-16 incher in the mid range, and bumped NW last min leading to mixing and changeover to rain cutting down on totals in eastern areas. The follow up threat…. That went from 0-100 on guidance inside 5 days.

I wouldn’t write this one off. The last one had serious wave spacing issues. The gfs isn’t the only model with a storm, AI guidance and Canadian are also on board. It’s a deep trough and there is a lot of energy.

I’m going to take a look at the setup more in depth later. The 6z euro was a whiff, but it wasn’t terribly far off. Even on the Euro that’s a potent shortwave. Ai guidance is also close, so the takeaway here is there is some cross guidance support for a storm threat.

It’s very similar to last year.

I know he’s negative a lot, but I don’t think Tblizz is being unreasonable here. I also want to see more support from other guidance before buying in, and the wave spacing is a real limitation.

Id rather take my chances with the second one. Wave spacing issues with wave 1 are a real concern.

It’s not a good sign when we are tracking patterns rather than individual storms in January.

Keeling curve has an extremely high (r^2 value of nearly 1) to global temps, and it is exponential, not linear. CC is underplayed if anything

I’m hearing a lot of hype for the second half of January after the relaxation period. You nailed the early January period being a bust back when it was being hyped up, so I’m curious to hear your take on the second half of the month.

You should apologize to the Pope.

People shouldn’t have a problem with reality.

I’m not going to lie, I’m kind of annoyed that we are in early January and tracking a pattern change, not individual threats. That said, despite getting some bad luck in December, your ideas about how things would evolve in early winter have been dead on so far. I like your evidence based style, you listen to arguments for both cold and warm despite having a cold/snowy bias on a personal level (most of us do). You hold yourself accountable and learn from your mistakes and it shows in your work. I hope you are right about how the rest of winter plays out.

Agreed, it was a good post. A lot of people here owe the pope an apology. He doesn’t sugarcoat things, but whether people like him or not, he knows what he is talking about. I disagreed with him (likely wishcasting on my end, I wanted my seasonal forecast to be right) and called for a wall to wall cold and snowy Jan. I am waiving the white flag on that idea. This doesn’t mean I’m punting the month, but there is large scale cross guidance agreement that my ideas about the progression of Jan will be incorrect.

I’m keeping expectations low, but definitely going to keep an eye on this one the next couple of days.

I disagree with this, its more of a motivation than a capacity thing.

You are objectively correct, eastern mass squandered a very cold December in terms of snowfall. It is also really not that big of a deal, it’s just snow. I wanted more snow but it is what it is, on to January.

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

I’m feeling pretty good about this. I would favor the lower end for Boston and the higher end for NYC because of how December played out, but I don’t see any reason to deviate from the general idea of a great winter but not historic (eg 95-96, 14-15, 10-11) in terms of snow totals. Cold air has not been an issue, and there are signs the pattern could turn more stormy in early Jan with hints that the STJ will become more active.

Yeah this month underperformed. The late north trends for this past storm were nice, but I only got 3 or so inches and it’s probably going to be gone unless Monday trends a lot colder. Oh well, the January pattern looks promising for a minor threat (4-8 ish if everything breaks right) around new years and a bigger storm on the 6th.

You are getting over a foot. Congrats

That radar screams overperformer

could what’s going on to our south (mix line more north) be a good sign for us?