George001

Yeah, seems like the guidance is converging on a peak in the 1.8-1.9 range. I initially thought it was going to be a super nino, but it looks like it’s going to fall a bit short.

Appreciate the support, hopefully we get at least one big one this year. I’m interested to see if you are leaning above or below average in eastern mass for snow, based on your posts you seem to be a lot more optimistic than I am about this coming winter. Your analogs are snowier than mine, but there are some bad winters in there too. I don’t think we will truly know weather the milder forecasts or snowier ones will be correctly until mid-late January though. Even the more optimistic posters expressed agreement on December being shitty.

Fair point, it’s a decent match for precip. For ENSO, I’m expecting this nino to be stronger and more east based. If I am wrong about that 2009-2010 would become a better analog. Regardless, it looks like my initial idea of a 2.2-2.3 ONI peak will be incorrect. I like the higher end of your ONI range (1.9). The enso development deviated from my expectations this October. November will be a big month for sure in regards to telling us more about ENSO development.

For my analogs, I am leaning more towards 1991-1992, 1997-1998 (weaker nino obviously, but I think the general pattern will be similar), and 1972-1973 than 2009-2010 and 2002-2003. The reason why I don’t like the 09-10 and 02-03 analogs is the fall pattern is different. The storm track is more north and it is significantly warmer. In previous winter forecasts I made, I failed to take the fall pattern into account, which resulted in my analogs being bad. 2018-2019 is not a great enso match, but I think it’s a decent analog for the pacific pattern. That winter had lots of storms tracking across the pacific northwest, and then when the storm track shifted south we got a nice noreaster in March.

Factors: El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate. Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. What could go wrong? A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way.

My forecast is 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area for the 2023-2024 winter. No, not for one storm, for the ENTIRE winter.

Where’s the cold coming from? The latest Siberian snowcover data is not promising for getting the polar region to cooperate. I don’t like seeing that, a strong to super nino, and a -PDO.

2009-2010 was a strong El Niño. 87-88 was weird, it peaked strong but weakened rapidly after that. It ended up being a moderate nino during the winter. By 1983 do you mean 83-84 or 82-83? 83-84 was a la nina so that’s not a good analog, but 8 did see some mentions of 82-83 being a good analog. 82-83 was a super nino so that makes sense. Does it mean winter is going to necessarily be bad? No, it all depends on where you live. The mid Atlantic does well in stronger ninos like this one, so a good winter in say DC-NYC is a very realistic outcome. There is nothing weak about this El Niño though.

NOAA isn’t calling for a record event like 2015-2016. They are calling for a strong one though, they saying there is a 75-85% chance this El Niño reaches the strong threshold, and a 30% chance it becomes a super event. That seems reasonable based on the current conditions.

The people calling for a weak El Niño are incorrect. We have a well coupled moderate strength El Niño right now, so it makes so sense to forecast a weak event. NOAA doesn’t only use one index, they use several different indexes and all of them reflect El Niño conditions. The most recent tri monthly value is 1.3, which is far from a weak event. The most recent report mentions that the key atmospheric indicators they look at (ONI, SOI index, subsurface etc) all reflect a well coupled El Niño, which is expected considering we are currently in a moderate El Niño. This is different than the 2018-2019 event that struggled to couple. The most recent IRI report is in agreement with NOAA, it explicitly states that the key oceanic and atmospheric conditions are consistent with a moderate El Niño. The only way this ends up being a weak event would be if it already peaked and begins rapidly weakening the next couple of months, and there is nothing to support that happening. Both climatology and guidance argue for further strengthening of the El Niño over the next couple of months.

The El Niño strength plays a role in why I am pessimistic about this winter, but it isn’t the only reason. The El Niño is more east based, the PDO is extremely negative (historically -PDO El Niño winters are bad news for those looking for a cold and snowy winter in the east), and the Siberian snowcover is well below average.

The higher end outcomes (2.2-2.4 ONI peak) are looking much less likely now, but the JAS trimonthly reading was 1.3 ONI. ASO will likely be around 1.5 ONI, so strong is pretty much guaranteed. Even if it doesn’t become super (it still could), there is a good chance it gets up to at least high end strong.

The strength of the El Niño matters a lot. I don’t agree that it is just bad luck that 2009-2010 sucked for snow in New England. Strong/super nino and strong -NAO is a congrats DC pattern, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat over that any day.

Ceiling is 35-40 inches of snow in Boston this winter. I’d honestly be ok with that if it comes with a big storm and cold temps afterwards so we sustain a decent snowpack.

It has slowed down some in recent weeks, but I still believe it will go super because Paul Roundy said so. If Paul Roundy backs down then I’ll back down too.

Not great, but I will take that over last year any day. At least if it’s cold the ski resorts can make snow. Warmth in winter sucks

I agree with most of this and am leaning mild myself, but I will push back on the IOD point you are making as well as the Siberian snowcover. Yes, the IOD is is expected to be strongly positive, but there was a graph posted earlier in this thread by gaWX that showed a weakly negative correlation between +IOD and eastern US temps. The data does not support +IOD being a mild signal in the east, if anything it’s a slight cold signal. I also disagree that the Siberian snow cover signal is useless, it isn’t everything but it has its value. That said, regardless of what the Siberian snowcover and IOD does I am going mild simply because in my opinion the mild drivers are stronger than the cold ones. Point 5 in particular that you made in my opinion is being overlooked. The -PDO is near record strong, and -PDO is a warm signal in the east. The +IOD is actually favorable for us, but the way I see it is the -PDO and east based strong/super nino are going to overwhelm. Honestly, with how negative the PDO is even if the El Niño was weak I would still probably be going mild. Imo AGW made it a lot more difficult to overcome a bad pacific than it used to be, so those good 1970s winters with a -PDO will be tough to replicate.

Yeah 14-15, 77-78, etc aren’t good analogs but 2009 is due to the strength of the El Niño.

I know snowman rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but there is no question that he knows his shit. I learned a lot about El Niño development from reading his posts in his thread. I honestly don’t agree at all with him being 5 posted, yeah he has his biases but a lot of us do. I have mine too, the difference my idea and much of this forums idea of paradise is a raging blizzard with below 0 temps, and his idea of paradise is sunbathing in 100+ degree heat. I don’t know why it rubs people the wrong way, if you like warmer weather and get excited about warm signals, that’s cool. I love snow as much as anyone, but it is a weather board, not just a post about anything that favors cold and snow board.

Am I missing something here? Even the initial tweet supports the idea of a positive NAO. The NAO during the 2014-2015 winter was strongly positive. It was a cold and extremely snowy winter, but it was not a good example of an “el nino blocking pattern”.

Yeah ignoring the PDO was a mistake, but I’m going to disagree with you on the MEI. All the MEI was saying was that the La Niña was going to act like a stronger Nina than ONI would imply. That is bad for the mid Atlantic, but NYC north it’s really not. Strong Ninas are fine up here. If you use MEI, the 2010-2011 was the strongest La Niña on record. La Nina’s, especially stronger ones are more dependent on North Atlantic blocking (polar region). Historically strong Nina with a -NAO has been one of the most favorable winter patterns in New England (behind weak nino with a raging +PDO). However, strong ninas with a +NAO are often REALLY bad (see the entire 2011-2012 winter, last year during Jan and Feb). In a nino (non super), +NAO isn’t really a death sentence and can actually be a really good pattern for New England if combined with a +PDO. In a stronger Nino like this one, you really want a +PDO if looking for big snows in the east. El Nino -PDO combo has historically been quite unfavorable for east coast snow (Raindance has some good posts about this). The only ENSO state that really is a death sentence for a cold snowy winter up here is super nino. This winter looks like it has a good chance at having both a -PDO and a super nino, which is why I agree with you about this winter being a dud for my area. I think in general there is this big “Nina bad, Nino good” sentiment for east coast winters which is not necessarily true.

This unironically is a good thing to keep in mind for the winter.

I don’t know about that, strong la Nina patterns aren’t necessarily bad in New England. 2007-2008 was pretty good in Boston, and 2010-2011 had the lowest MEI on record and a raging -PDO. The summer of 2010 had an MEI of -2.5 (super).

Another couple ticks and there’s a low over my noggin. It’s a little more west than I thought, but there’s no reason to panic and and overreact. It’s just a low, it’s really not a big deal. We get lows plowing inland all the time. What’s so special about this storm? It’s just a run of the mill windy rainstorm, nothing we aren’t used to in New England.

Yeah still worth watching but looking like a near miss is the most likely outcome. The low is very strong, just too far offshore to be anything more than a typical rainstorm.