George001

I don’t entirely disagree with you, this is a strong nino right now and like you said in an earlier post the active STJ reflects that. However, I would be shocked if we have a monthly average of +2.3C. We are also on borrowed time. We have about a month left of warming before the event peaks according to most guidance and climatology. Regardless, I don’t think it’s super relevant whether we peak at 1.8 or 2.1 ONI. A 1.8 ONI El Niño is far from weak, it’s high end strong/borderline super. The guidance usually has a good grasp on the peak strength by this point, it’s the structure and how rapidly the event weakens that is still uncertain.

Don’t ban the Pope

Agree. I was on the super nino train, but the data no longer supports that. Things change

I am discounting it due to low track, location, and the calendar date. Like the pope said, there isn’t really anything to force such aggressive Miller B redevelopment. NAO is positive.

I like seeing it below normal in November, but that “shit sandwich” warm and wet to cold and dry is absolutely a concern. I don’t like seeing lows running inland, if we want big snows that needs to change. It’s not going to snow in our backyards either way because it’s November, but often times the November pattern is a sign of things to come.

Yep, 970s mb low plowing into Montreal.

Uh oh. Torch Tiger is excited about the upcoming storm event on the GFS. I haven’t even looked yet at the surface, but that tells me all I need to know.

Looks like the low is going to run inland. Low plowing into central NY?

That’s a great way to set yourself up to be disappointed. I learned that the hard way….

Good read. We don’t always agree, but I respect the transparency about your previous outlooks. I wish more seasonal forecasters would be as open about the results of their previous forecasts. It appears that we agree about the pacific, and where our forecasts differ is the polar domain. I’m solidly in the 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2018-2019 camp. Considering that you are forecasting nearly twice as much snow for my area as I am, I hope you are right.

2m anomalies?

Agree. Whether the nino falls short of super or not, there is a very real chance the strength of the nino derails winter for snow enthusiasts in the east.

I was on board with a historic super nino too, but the data doesn’t support that anymore. The ONI graph in particular is misleading, as the 2023 El Niño event began diverging from the super events after September. 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 all were above 2.0 by now. Right now it’s evolving more like a slightly stronger version of 57-58 than the super events. Don’t get me wrong, this nino is far from weak. It’s looking more like a +1.8-1.9 peak than a +2.3 or higher though.

That’s true, it doesn’t always translate but I would rather see a favorable pattern in November than an unfavorable one. The strong nino -PDO combination historically has been unfavorable for cold in the east. We need the polar region to cooperate, and the early signs aren’t looking too great for that.

Forky likes warmer weather like Snowman19 and Torch Tiger do.

The -PDO is the most concerning thing for winter lovers in the east. Regardless of whether the Nino peaks at 1.6, 1.9, or 2.2, if there is a -PDO with it I’m going warm. Also, there has been a barrage of storms entering the Pacific Northwest. I don’t like seeing that.

72-73 is a solid analog, yes this nino likely won’t become super like that one did, but most guidance has it peaking as a high end strong event. This isn’t a true east based nino like 97-98, the structure is also a good match (basin wide but east lean). The combination of strong nino and -PDO is another thing that matches 72-73.

I’m expecting around half of that in the Boston area this winter.

Good. La Nina’s after strong/super ninos tend to be quite snowy in the east.

Strong El Niño decembers typically aren’t favorable. That’s why we probably won’t know what this winter is truly made of until mid January or so.

Agree 100%. Especially se mass, expecting big snows in November and December is setting yourself up for disappointment. Especially with a strong nino in place, December climo isn’t favorable for us. That’s why I am not expecting any snow events here for at least the next 6 weeks.

That’s actually my biggest issue with Bastardi. He is not some random idiot on Twitter. He’s a successful meteorologist with a big following. I don’t like him, but he’s not an idiot, in fact he’s actually quite intelligent. He has forgotten more about meteorology than many weenies including myself will ever learn in our entire lives. He is pushing this harmful AGW denier agenda to get clicks, and it’s working. The random idiots on twitter aren’t concerning, it’s the smart conmen with big followings like Bastardi who are. I wish he would put that knowledge he has to do good rather than misleading his audience about climate change.

It not only significantly underestimated the eastern warmth, it also missed the western US troughing. Just a completely different pattern. I agree with you about taking these models with a grain of salt.

I don’t have an issue with that. Bastardis AGW denial agenda is problematic and is a big reason why his forecasts have been busting too cold and snowy.

I am seeing a lot of storms on the models hitting the Pacific Northwest and then tracking west to east near the Canadian border. I am seeing some talk about potential for an early winter storm threat, but with that storm track I think it’s more likely we will be south and east of the low. That’s not a snowy storm track in the heart of winter, never mind in November. That is why I do not agree that we will have a snow threat in eastern mass over the next couple of weeks. I believe we will get more rain instead.